Is Sonia Gandhi really in power and Manmohan Singh is a proxy PM ?
In denial
Manmohan Singh could be the most powerless PM yet.
17 December 2004: So there come the denials. The prime minister’s officials are red in the face denying that Manmohan Singh offered to resign a fourth time. We reported the earlier three resignations (Commentary, “On its own,” 2 December 2004), all rejected by the Congress president, Sonia Gandhi, but political circles over the week have been agog with the PM’s fourth offer to quit. The PMO denied it, the Congress spokesperson said no, and to a pointed BJP query in Parliament, Arjun Singh was forced to swear allegiance to Manmohan Singh. The reality is as bad as ever.
The top Congress cabinet ministers and their aides continue to refer to the PM as a “naukar shahi”, the Hindustani for bureaucrat, often unfortunately shortened to just the first word. Arjun Singh does not consult the PM about his ministry. To his close friends and aides, the Union HRD minister is supremely dismissive of the PM. “I handle my own ministry,” he has said, “I don’t need to ask anyone what to do. And whatever I need to get cleared, I get it cleared from Sonia Gandhi.” Such is Sonia’s respect for Arjun Singh, he is among the few Congress ministers she sees off at the door, possibly the only one.
Natwar Singh, the other minister to disdain Manmohan Singh, brooks no interference in the running of the foreign ministry. The only time Manmohan got on top was at the one-to-one with General Pervez Musharraf in New York, when Natwar Singh was kept out. But before that and since, he has gone about like an independent unguided missile. He did not consult the PM when he posited a common nuclear doctrine for India, China and Pakistan, and his attack of India’s nuclear programme during a foreign visit was obviously unilateral and patently personal.
The PMO, again, had no part to play in Vladmir Putin’s visit, it being a foreign ministry show from start to finish. When foreign heads of government visit, the PMO remote controls the meetings and discussions, obviously because it is a state visit, and nothing can be left to chance. In the Putin visit though, Manmohan Singh was a bit player, not getting the space or time to build confidence with him, and thus, when the Russian president dropped the bombshell, that he was against veto power to India if it joined the UN Security Council, everyone was surprised, and no one had a clue it was coming.
In the defence ministry, Pranab Mukherjee is plotting with the Left to become PM. He won the Lok-Sabha elections because of CPI-M support, and the CPI-M secretly takes his advice when opposing the economic reform policies drafted by Manmohan, the finance minister, P.Chidambaram, and the Planning-Commission deputy chairman, Montek Singh Ahluwalia. When the Intelligence Bureau was pressured to clear the FDI cap hike in telecom, the Military Intelligence Directorate stepped in with its objections, and once the military objects, no government would risk a policy.
There are also reports of Manmohan-Pranab differences on troops’ reduction in J and K, but Newsinsight has no independent confirmation of this. But what is clear is that the officer corps is deeply distressed, and India has been put on a slippery slope to truly reduce because Musharraf has called the reductions “cosmetic”. Shivraj Patil’s performance as home minister is vastly poor, and while the PM has lauded him at a Congress party meeting, it is a fact that he has asked Sonia to drop him from the cabinet, or shift him out of home. “Patil’s name is on the top in any news about a cabinet reshuffle, but Sonia saves him every time,” said a Congress stalwart. Publicly, Sonia has denied she is the power behind the throne, but no one in the Congress is willing to believe this. The powerlessness of Manmohan Singh is actively discussed by Congress ministers and partymen. Two weeks ago, some journalists overheard a cabinet minister with a prospective women state party president taking digs at Manmohan Singh. “Pata nahin kisko PM bana diya,” said the minister, one of those who angered Manmohan Singh by making policies without consulting him. He was the reason for why Manmohan Singh offered to resign for one of the three times reported by this magazine.
The fact is that Sonia Gandhi remains the power behind the throne. Arjun Singh wouldn’t have dared chart a separate course without her backing, Natwar Singh in fact reflects her squeamishness about nuclear weapons. Shivraj Patil remains home minister because of her, the Left only recognises her authority, and remains a bugbear to the PM. Laloo Prasad Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan feel Manmohan Singh has no locus to ask them to cease their pre-election mutual recriminations. If the PM had truly wielded authority, would Laloo have dared to escape to Bihar after the Mukerian train accident?
In theory, the one-person, one-post principle works, but it is a disaster in practice. Manmohan Singh’s problem is that he has not powered the Congress to victory, or brought the UPA into government. That role is divided among Sonia, the Left bosses, and satraps like Laloo, Sharad Pawar, etc. Since Sonia has the most number of MPs, she holds the most number of strings, and she remains the point of contact for the others. The Congressmen, for their part, look up to her as a vote-getter – although after the Maharashtra polls, even her vote-getting abilities are suspect – and they see Manmohan Singh as no more than her nominee. In the circumstances, neither the PMO’s denials, nor Arjun Singh’s protestations, nor Sonia Gandhi’s disavowals, go far.
Manmohan Singh will only come into his own if he is also made the Congress president, and Sonia Gandhi steps into the dark. By himself, Manmohan Singh is too decent, and too grateful. He won’t ask for more.