The Monty Hall Problem....

[GavriloPrincip]

Re: The Monty Hall Problem…

@Umar Talib

When it comes to Monty Hall, Switch is better than Stick:
If you switch every time, you will only lose if you had chosen the correct foor in the first guess… and there was one in three chances of that happening.

Another way to look at it a little more heuristically:
Monty always shows you what’s behind a loser door. Consider these three possible situations about what’s really behind the doors:

----------Door 1—Door 2—Door 3
Case A:–Car------Goat-----Goat
Case B:–Goat------Car-----Goat
Case C:–Goat------Goat-----Car

Say you choose Door 1. If the reality is case A and you switch, you lose. But if the reality is either B or C, you win. Thus, you have twice the likelihood of winning if you switch.

Thanks for doing the legwork. I agree with Umar.