Re: The Monty Hall Problem....
Monty is an idiot.
Re: The Monty Hall Problem....
I think 50/50 is correct. You know from the start that one of the wrong doors is going to be eliminated. So the probability in the beginning is 50/50 and not 33%. You already know the partial outcome of the problem.
Monty knows the answer and he is not choosing a random door for elimination. Hence the probability is not 33%. His choice is not random and true probability does not hold.
If Monty chooses to open a random door, then the probability will remain 33%.
Re: The Monty Hall Problem....
Im not going to go down this statitistical theory route purely because its too early.
I reckon that when the door opens the goat calls out to its friend and the friend answers
Me eeeHhhhhh
If you have good hearing, you can find out where the goat is.
Question...if they win the goat ..... do they get to keep it?
what if they live in a flat on the top floor of a highrise building...what do they do with the goat....what if they are people who indulge in animal cruelty.....?
Re: The Monty Hall Problem....
yeah.....
where's Ohioguy..... come answer our questions!
Re: The Monty Hall Problem....
When it comes to Monty Hall, Switch is better than Stick:
If you switch every time, you will only lose if you had chosen the correct foor in the first guess... and there was one in three chances of that happening.
Another way to look at it a little more heuristically:
Monty always shows you what's behind a loser door. Consider these three possible situations about what's really behind the doors:
----------Door 1---Door 2---Door 3
Case A:--Car------Goat-----Goat
Case B:--Goat------Car-----Goat
Case C:--Goat------Goat-----Car
Say you choose Door 1. If the reality is case A and you switch, you lose. But if the reality is either B or C, you win. Thus, you have twice the likelihood of winning if you switch.
Re: The Monty Hall Problem…
Ah sod the odds, am rooting for the locked one. Monty obviously came in through the third door. :halo:
Re: The Monty Hall Problem....
Ahhhh,
Perhaps I forgot to mention, the goats are a special silent type of goat, and goat stew is not an option.
And, switching is better.
Re: The Monty Hall Problem....
Im gonna feed Monty to the discovered goat and drive off in the car.
Re: The Monty Hall Problem…
I didn’t really get the logic until reading this explanation.
Well done, Umar Bhai. :k: Hum jaise stupid loogon ko samjhaana sirf aik aise insaan ko hi aa sakta hai, jissai teaching experience ho. 
Re: The Monty Hall Problem....
I think in Umers explanation its still 50/50. In atleast one case u have a chance of having picked the car in your first guess leaving you with two more scenarios and the chance of you winning is again 50/50.
Re: The Monty Hall Problem....
Probability theories can only be applied to totally random events.
A random variable is of prime importance in any probability equation. A random variable can be thought of as the numeric result of operating a non-deterministic mechanism or performing a non-deterministic experiment to generate a random result. The mechanism here is not non-deterministic.
The random variable concept holds true only once one of the doors has been eliminated.
My 2 cents.