{Mods, please merge this with any existing Korean discussion. I couldn’t find any on the first page of the forum. Thanks}
This morning on the CNN radio I heard Andrea Coppel, reporting that Gen. Li Gun, North Korea’s representative to the talks in Beijing, China, told U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly, “blatantly and boldly” that the country has nuclear weapons and then asked, “Now what are you going to do about it?”. This statement seemed pretty remarkable, not so much because Koreans have almost verified that they have nuclear weapons, but also by their blantant so-called nuclear-blackmail.
Secondly, I was kinda surprised by China’s stance. It seems China’s position is that the entire Korean peninsula should be free of nuclear weapons. And therefore, they disagree with North Korean government on their approach. I thought Chinese are the one supported of the N. Korean regime?
Thirdly, I kinda agree with the purported statement from a Korean representative when he said (I am paraphrasing, as it was in the tele-tape on CNNHN) “Iraq’s war has proved that a credible nuclear deterrant is necessary to avoid war”. I am sure this doctrine won’t go down very well in Washington or elsewhere.
That it may. I am more interested in a discussion on the bigger picture. Is having a credible nuclear deterrant more important now (a lesson of Iraq war)? Which direction are China's policies going?
IMHO, having a credible nuclear deterrent will only make the U.S. be more persistant in there demands. I think it may be that China doesn't trust the North Koreans with such a weapon either.
I think a Japanese kid with high school diploma can put together a nuke in his kitchen in less than a week. Things are going to get pretty ugly in the pacific. America should leave the pacific and let them kill one another. What else has come from there anyway? Other than rice noodles and cheap labor. This is my views about the regional mess.
In terms of global complications it may cause. How can you expect starving North Koreans to fight a war with a power like the US? They can dream.
Apparently the talks with the PRNK broke down today. Rumors that they may try a nuclear test soon. Have you ever read some of the rants of this regime? Very odd. I think China is embarrassed by their little cousin. China is interested only in international prestige, and growing thier econonomy. With the SARS scare hurting China, the last thing they want is NK acting up.
Little Kim is whack job and China knows it. His unpredictability and paranoid personality could send a nuclear dust cloud Chinas way. China has nothing to gain by North Koreas behavior but has billions to lose. And what does Little Kim have to lose, the country is a complete mess, basically a failed state kept up by military force, it’s a very bleak situation.
THe possession of missiles are changing the military geography of Asia and renders vulnerable or impotent the US policy of forward engagement in that region. One reason acounted for that is the lack of an important military base in the region. I know, Guam, Japan and South Korea does provide bases so how can their importance be denied?
Interestingly by keeping arms control at the centre of diplomacy the US tries to maintain its military superiority by having an asymmetrical relationship with other states. Its more or less the same when it comes to US-China relationship. However, China is a signatory to the CTBT and though technological advancements are taking place in this field however, what I have gathered that the Chinese are basicaly following a very relaxed appraoched. They didnt raise much hue and cry on US's MD programe either... no matter how much the US wants the Chinese to repond or show as to what they are upto, the Chinese are in no hurry. That is a point of concern for US policy makers. I am no authority on China but seems as if the priorities are changing...what Chalsui mentioned seems quite true.The recalcitrant regime in Nkorea that has failed to implement any reforms,its withdrawal from NPT are a point of concern if not to that extent but still for Chinese.( China supports most of the International norms and treaties)
As for whether the nuclear device can act as a deterent.. well, thats a controversial issue as far as South Asia is concerned. Due to the time constraint and geographical limitations it is said that deterence cannot work here but thats another issue altogether. However, I agree Faisal bhai that such a statement("Iraq's war has proved that a credible nuclear deterrant is necessary to avoid war". I am sure this doctrine won't go down very well in Washington or elsewhere.) can't be overlooked as many analysts, policy makers before the operation on Iraq were of the view that it is North Korea that pose the real danger ( when there were news alleging Pakistan's involvement and assistance in North Korea's nuclear program). Well, I do somehow want to believe that detternce would work inthe Korena situation as US would want to solve this issue through negotiations and using all means involving China yet not thretening the mainland by threatening to attack Korea.
The North’s Korean people’s army (KPA) vowed to “put all people under arms and turn the whole country into a fortress”, and urged its soldiers to become “human bombs and fighters ready to blow up themselves” to protect leader Kim Jong Il
Man.. what kind of religion do these Jihadi North Koreans follow??
I don't think NK has any credible means of firing an inter-continental nuclear warhead to wipe-out San Francisco. At best they threaten to have a nuclear war with their brothers in South Korea (which by itself is a dubious preposition).
Help me understand, why would US has its panties in a bunch on that? Shouldn't the South Koreans be the ones to try and calm the idiot on the second floor? Why does US has to go across the whole Pacific to "negotiate" with a bonafide lunatic?
How long will it take for the US to withdraw all its precious military bases from the South K. and tell Koreans "well buddy... 50 years are enough. Now we want our sons back home. You take care of your own Kims and Jongs and Ils. Bye Bye!"
Faisal, because everyone starts walking after taking the first step. US is thinking (unlike other nations) 75 years down the line. What is the guarantee that NK wont sell the nukes to places like Pakistan?
It is my personal belief that anyone trying to control nuclear profileration is just fighting a losing battle. The technology is here already (as NYA said, the formula is probably available, its just a matter of getting the ingrediants and making it weapon grade) and its gonna spread. I am sure you guys read that Pentagon has finally acknolwedged that they will commission nuclear bunker busters bombs, which is called a major shift in US nuclear policy. Now it is all the more futile to force rest of the world not to go the nuclear way. I bet half a dozen or more countries are secretly and feverishly working to develop their own nukes.
Whether they purchase the technology from financially desperate countries like Pak or N. Korea or get those smuggled from Los Alamos Labs (in other words, by hook or by crook), they are gonna get it. US should give up the pipe-dream that it can stop others from getting nukes while herself sitting on the largest stock-pile.
I am not making any moral argument. US presumption just defies common sense. I am sure privately they must know that they are on losing front there. Without downplaying the seriousness of nuclear armageddon in the hands of idiots like Kims and Jongs, its what US really deserves anyway.
Faisal yaar, trust me that US is more than capable of nuking the entire pacific and framing NK or China for that. If they did that, the question to be raised is that who will provide cheap nike sneakers to the Americans.
US capability is not the question. With nuclear weapons, the question is not just having them in your arsenal but the willingness to use them as well. And more importantly the cost-benefit of using them.
What could be the advantage for US to nuke the Korean peninsula, when renegade nuclear weapons are sold all over the world, from Pakistan to Iran to Central Asia to Europe. Nuking the entire world to get rid of nuclear weapons is an absurd idea, although funny.
The only reason is that Pakistan doesn't give a flying fig if every country in the whole damn world has nuclear weapons. On the contrary, if the price is right, Pak will probably want to make a handsome profit by supplying whatever missing pieces of the puzzle the other one needs.
On the contrary, its only US (and some of its closest cronies) who tout the mantra that no country in the world should have nuclear weapons, but they will not dispose off their own arsenals either.
The rhetoric is fine for public consumption, cz no one wants to take public responsibility for allowing the whole world to become a nuclear playground, but hand to heart, its just a facade which is not fooling anyone. Yesterday it was Pakistan and India, today its NK, tomorrow it may be Iran. Next Vietnam? Indonesia? Yugoslavia? God knows where it will end. Its like a train. Once it's started in 1940's, its not gonna stop. Its called evolution.
Unfortunately the residents of this world will have to live by the reality that there will be nuclear weapons around us, just as there are AK-47s and tanks and fighter aircrafts. THese things don't just go away.