I have read some topics on this discussion board about the current situation on Iraq and it was great to read the views presented. For those who are interested, I suggest they take some time out (it is lengthy) to read this comprehensive but by no means exhaustive discussion paper entitled, “War with Iraq: Cost, Consequences and Alternatives” courtesy of Committee on International Security Studies (CISS) of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.
An Acrobat Reader will be needed to view the paper.
The articles include:
1 – US National Security Policy: In Search of Balance
2 – Gambling on War: Force, Order and the Implications of Attacking Iraq
3 – The Economic Consequences of a War with Iraq
I will add to the statements made with personal comments at a later date. I don’t agree 100% with the paper but I think it gives very academic, accurate and balanced presentations. I hope it will provide for a good and interesting discussion.
It looks as if all these pro-war and anti-war discussions were a waste of time really. :(
So finding something new to discuss:
Difficulties that could occur during the war? Will the Kurds go it alone against the Turks to establish their homelands? Will the Turkish enter Iraq? What is the likely scenario for after Saddam Iraq in terms of the Iraqi government and politics?
What is the likely scenario for after Saddam Iraq in terms of the Iraqi government and politics?
Two names come to mind: Tommy Franks, the US military commander who is leading the invasion, and Zalmay Khalilzad, the former Unocal consultant and now US envoy to Iraq (and Afghanistan).
Regarding Kurds - my prediction is that they will be dropped like hot potatoes (so to speak:~) ); they can dream all they want about ethnic representation in the new Iraqi government. i am sure that Turkey will not be very pleased with that. Autonomy? Perhaps limited - the same sort of autonomy that Iraq gave them in 1991, not much more than that. Independent Kurdistan? Never.
Remember that the majority of Iraqis are Shi'ites (most of the Ba'ath party members are Sunnis and a couple Christians) - so one would naturally assume that the new Iraqi government would be comprised predominantly of Shi'ites. My prediction - we will have a predominantly Sunni puppet government because a Shi'ite one would cause nightmarish problems (for the US) of having the new Iraqi and Iranian govts. closer in ties with each other.
Thank you Nadiaji. That looks like an accurate assessment. Seem to me that arrangement is going to cause more problems than is going to solve.
I heard that both the Shias and Kurds are fuming because Americans said they were going to keep the lower levels of Ba'ath administration structure intact while the higher posts go to Americans.
You’re welcome Rhia. You are correct in the above statement - in fact, there was a good thread regarding this, started by Malik73; Kanan Makiya, an adviser to Iraq’s main opposition group, the Iraqi National Congress, described US plans for a post-Hussein Iraq as “as an ‘unmitigated disaster’, ‘deeply stupid’ and a ‘mess’.”
Even some of Iraq’s main opposition groups and individuals are opposed to this invasion, including individuals who have the most reason to be opposed to Saddam Hussein. That says volumes, i think, about how much faith to place in US plans for a post-Hussein Iraq.