The crises like never before

I don’t have words only tears in my eyes after watching a 65 year old women fell after finally getting a 10Kg Atta pack which she tried to bring out of the long queue out of utility store in Karachi. She stood in the queue with her broken leg (imagine what her state would be with all the white/orange hair on her face trying to get up in that rush, holding on her Atta pack) for 3 hours. I couldn’t watch her anymore as she sit on floor having no strength to get up.

I don’t know if these crises are created on purpose to divert people’s attention or they are geniune (coincidence for having Power, Gas, Water and Flour at same time), but the nation is suffering way too much beyond its limits.

Re: The crises like never before

I feel the sad vibe just reading what you said bro. It is very heart-wrenching indeed :(

Re: The crises like never before

We supposedly had a bumper crop last year. I think the shortage of flour now is the result of govt. connivance in smuggling and total mismanagement . Those misleading figures about the wheat crop led the govt. to allow export of wheat which resulted in instant shortage of wheat in Sindh. Export was banned afterwards but I don't think we've recovered from it ever since.

Re: The crises like never before

Its a truly tragic time... People starve and struggle, while this govt and their "leader" worry about their kursis..

Re: The crises like never before

yes, musharraf is to be blamed for record rise in global commodity prices. its this sort of reasoning that will ensure that pak stays third world country for eternity:

Commodity prices soar as wave of money hits markets

Carl Mortished, World Business Editor

A wave of money is flooding into the commodity markets, adding more lustre to gold and pointing a spotlight on obscure markets such as coffee, cocoa and palm oil, as investors take fright from credit risk and the looming spectre of recession.

Gold and platinum hit new records yesterday as traditional investors sought out safe havens for cash in troubled times. Concern over emerging signs of recession in the United States depressed the price of crude oil, which seesawed in indecision yesterday, but coffee and cocoa soared as investors searched for the next commodity stars.

The price of Robusta coffee futures gained $25 to $2,039 per tonne in London, the highest level for nine and a half years. Cocoa was also in demand, rising to £1,148 per tonne, a four-year high, as speculative funds sought exposure to soft commodities.

Palm oil also hit a record price as evidence emerged in official statistics that floods in Malaysia had affected output. The price of palm oil, used in both food and cosmetics, has risen 8 per cent in less than a fortnight with continuing concern about its use as a biofuel crop and burgeoning demand from the food industry.

“It’s a global warming hedge,” said Tim Bond, head of asset allocation at Barclays Capital, of the new fashion for soft commodities. “The last three to four years has seen a rebirth of institutional interest in commodities.”

From buying global commodity indices, funds have moved to futures in oil and metals and latterly to green and soft commodities, such as wheat and corn or cocoa and coffee. Commodities fell deeply out of fashion in the 1990s but rising affluence in Asia is putting pressure on food supplies, while climate change is threatening food production.

From almost zero allocation, funds have given commodities a big slice of their portfolios. “People doing portfolio optimisation find they need between 10 per cent and 20 per cent,” Mr Bond said.

After the initial surge in oil and base metals, wheat, corn and soya are in demand and the search is now on for the next commodity to catch fire. Sudakshina Unnikrishnan, Barclays’ soft commodities expert, believes it may be cotton. A massive price gain in wheat, which tripled in value in a year, is expected to lead to more planting by farmers and land is switching from cotton to wheat production. “I think the fundamentals for cotton are very strong,” she said.

US market statistics show rising levels of speculative activity in the soft commodities. “Most of these commodities are seeing strong growth in hot money interest. The fundamentals are so compelling,” said Ms Unnikrishnan. Many food commodities remain as much as 50 per cent off their peak prices, despite recent gains.

Moreover, the soft commodities can move in a countercyclical direction, Mr Bond said.

Fear of recession sent oil falling by a dollar yesterday after an initial bounce caused by comments on Thursday from Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, who promised “substantial action” from central banks to head off a downturn. At $93 per barrel, the US light crude futures contract is off 7 per cent from its milestone of $100 on January 3.

However, gold and platinum yesterday reached records of $898 and $1,568 per ounce respectively. On Tuesday, US soybean futures reached a record of $13.06 per bushel.

Re: The crises like never before

We had a bumper wheat crop… Where did it all go? Its making excuses for a govt thats obviously neglected its respnsibility and is at best, guilty of not planning before hand for this crisis that is going to keep Pakistan a third world country…

Lets stop making excuses and start having people take reposibilty for their screw ups. Its one thing to admire Mush, its quite another to watch people suffer and still defend him.

Re: The crises like never before

Re: The crises like never before

actually pak has always exported surplus wheat. global wheat prices were much much lower last year when wheat exports were allowed. global wheat prices spiked up over a very short period last year and its unrealistic to expect agriculture ministry officials to predict future of commodity prices cause otherwise these people would be as rich warren buffet.

wheat in pak is subsidized which means that local prices are much lower in pak than abroad. this gives incentive to wheat producers to sell wheat to smugglers much in the same manner as drug producers have incentive to sell to smugglers. given the nature of pak society, its unrealistic to expect wheat producers to be patriotic and to sell wheat at lower prices domestically. cracking down on wheat smuggelers will be about as effective as nato crackdown of afghan drug smugglers. over the medium term, only solution to food inflation in pak is to produce more food which requires construction of more dams. in the short run, inflation can only be controlled by importing food items at a loss to govt. this is what govt is doing now:

http://brecorder.com.pk/index.php?id=677829&currPageNo=1&query=&search=&term=&supDate=

KARACHI (January 12 2008): The two imported wheat consignments of some 86,000 tonnes on Friday, against orders booked by the state run grains trader to meet the local demand, besides arresting the commodity’s soaring prices, sources said.

Re: The crises like never before

The poor wheat producers get much lower price for their hard labour than what is sold on the market. The poor peasants cannot hoard lot of whaet unlike the mill owners. When the crop is harvested the price is always low, i bet same will happen next year. The government ordered that wheat be bought from peasants @ 420Rs per "mun" but it was actually bought by mill owners @ 380Rs. So its not the whaet producers that sell to smugglers but the hoarders and mill owners.

Re: The crises like never before

Correct!

Re: The crises like never before

their are huge ineffciencies in food supply chain in pak and govt can rightly be criticised for not bringing an improvement in this segment. otoh, wheat smugglers bribe politicians much like human smugglers do. since country cannot be run without the support of politicians, smuggling of any sort cannot be controlled in countries like pak or afghanistan.

Re: The crises like never before

We should remember that past corrupts have plenty of ill-gotten money to throw for their interest. There are many world powers who are upset about Pakistan progress too. Anyhow:

Did anyone ever though that why Atta is short just before election ... something that has never happened before? Or that who could be behind this shortage?

We should know that population of Pakistan is 160 million and Pakistan needs no more than 17 to 18 million tons of wheat at most. Estimated Paksitan wheat production was around 23 million tons and even if one or two million ton production was short, still there should not have been any shoratage (plus, one should remember that government also keeps few million tons of wheat as buffer stock from past harvests). But I believe that corrupt politicians wanting to win elections with plenty of illegally acquired money can do wonders, especially just before election.

For instance ... if 1 KG wheat can fead 4 people a day (that is average ... where even newly born child is included) than 160 million people would need 14.6 million Ton of wheat a year. Now think how can there be shortage of wheat in the country, even if a million or two got exported?

Re: The crises like never before

it doesnt matter how much crop we produce, we have an atta shortage not a wheat shortage, flour comes from mills what we dnt have enought off, its a fact that demand has outstripped supply which blind haters have become to blind to see the facts.
all flour mills are running to 100% capacity, running day/night 24 hrs, so tell me whats the point of having a bumper crop when there arnt enought mills to grind the wheat?
my cosin in faislabad told me gundum is availble everywhere, theres a big surplus, its going at bargain rates cos there arnt enought flour mills to sell too. these days the demand of flour has gone so high and supply is so low,

Re: The crises like never before

You could be right about wheat availability, though I believe that flour mill are not working to provide required flour in the market according to demand ... maybe under the instruction of corrupt politicians ...

Latest news: Rangers are going to take over all flour mills in the country from tonight and would be made to work so that flour demands can be fulfilled.

Re: The crises like never before

Your analysis are very correct, but its not 1 or 2 million which got exported, its more than that,, India is having a crisis right now of wheat as well, and same is Afghanistan much of it was smuggled to India and Afghanistan.

Re: The crises like never before

people have food that is wasted and thrown away or have more than is of need. it makes one wonder, the limit of having a sad unfair scarcity - a necessity of such a basic survival resource as food.
with a family of one's own it is really something that this woman in her old age is fighting for, and yet the whole country's people who have more than enough, do not have the heart to give that to her.

no wonder, Allah swt is not happy with us.

Re: The crises like never before

Brother, Pakistan always fulfilled almost 100 percent wheat requirements of Afghanistan, so that should not matter. I do not think that smuggling to India could be in massive scale as there is huge army across the border and border control with India is tight. Most likely more wheat was smuggled to Afghanistan to get exported from there further on (as world wheat price is 150 to 200 dollars a ton more than prices in Pakistan), but the situation in Afghanistan means that even movement of goods in Afghanistan is not so easy for this to happen in massive scale.

On the other hand, I think that Pakistan had few million tons of wheat from last year and this year also Pakistan had bumper crop. I fdo not think that there is any reason for shortage of flour in the market.

So, I believe that this flour shortage as Suhaib mentioned is due to flour mill not managing to fulfill the required demand and that I believe is artificially created by corrupt politicians working against Musharraf government.

This reasoning becomes more credible after news that from tonight, rangers are taking over all flour mills. Let hopes that the situation gets better, though even if that happens, corrupt politicians and vested interests could be able to create shortage by buying and hoarding as much flour from market as possible, as they wont mind losing millions for their cause.

But I hope that government tackles the problem with iron fist and punish the culprits even to extend of imposing huge fine and putting them in jail for long terms (5 to 10 years).

Re: The crises like never before

Right on!

Our supply chain system is at least 500 years old and it hasn't changed much in the last few years.

For food production to wholesale to retail outlets, we are utterly dependent on the vagaries of weather, small time hoarders, and yes the smugglers.

Some of it can squarely be blamed on the current and past governments, but majority of the blame goes to our heartless worm-y business elite who'd rather make pennies while costing themselves and the country $billions.

Why Blame the government?

For one specific reason we must blame the government! Monopoly!

Pak government encourages monopolistic behavior of our businessmen by acting as the biggest monopoly in the country.

Pak gov is fighting the hoarders aka monopolistic pigs with setting up its own monopoly called "utility stores".

Not only that, our gov sets the price per kilo of aata, thus ensuring lack of competition and thus hoarding.

Our corporate laws are so archaic that more efficient wholesalers have no reason to buy out the less efficient ones.

Our agri laws encourage fragmentation of land, and thus decreasing our food production per acre.

If we ever turn our farms into corporate run "agricultural factories", believe me, we will have much higher yield, and thus lower prices due to competition among suppliers.

The real culprit is our outdated 500 years old retail sector
Our retail sector must go the way of dinosaurs. It is one of the most inefficient places to distribute food and other commodities among masses.

Lack of "large buying" capacity of our retail means that the wholesalers can jack up the price any time they want. A typical retailer in Pakistan buys at the most 20 bags per delivery truck from the wholesaler. Even for 20 bags, this retailer doesn't pay cash but instead hold the money for months on end.

This tiny order of 20 bags per shop, and no incentive for money, the wholesaler can set whatever price he wants.

Using monopoly, all the wholesalers decide to follow the herd, and suddenly the aata disappears from the market.

Suppose if walmart like chain in Pakistan with 2000 stores nationwide was buying atta from wholesalers. With millions of tonnes of atta worth bilions of rupees at stake, and hope of quick payment, wholesalers would never dare refusing the supply to this mega-retailer.

Why because this Mega-retailer can simply go straight to the flour mills and cut out the middle man entirely.

Off course some of you might say that walmart in itself will become monopoly and starts setting prices at its will.

The solution is to have at least three chain outlets in every region, and then use government's force to keep them from monopolizing.

Our fix price system must go away because it belongs to now defunct socialists and commies. Better quality aata must fetch more price than the lower quality one. Then let the people decide what kind of aata they want to buy.

But the government must get out of retail sector like "utility stores". They don't work.

The only role of the government may be to maintain some "strategic reserves". But other than that, the rest of the supply chain must be run on modern scales and techniques.

So my friends we must take some short term and some long term measures to improve our supply chain.

Otherwise we will continue to be chained with poor supply of food items, and in turn continue to blame one of the other government for the wrong reasons.

Re: The crises like never before

It is quite simple actually. The government is selling atta in its utility stores at an artificially low price at a loss. The market price is much higher because it is a global market. The sellers prefer to send the atta through Afghanistan smuggling route to get better price. The government can sell atta at a loss but not the market. The only way the mad rush at utilitiy store can be stopped is by shutting down the smuggling routes and export routes completely. Is it possible and is it fair on the bussinessmen of the atta market? The other option is for the government to stop selling atta at the susidized rate and end the mad rush.

Re: The crises like never before

thanks. that was a very informative post and contains exactly the sort of information lacking in our media. i have very little knowledge of food production in pak but i know that govt's attempt to fix prices are doomed to failure. however given large number of poor people in pak, i am not sure if prices can be left to market completely. difficult problem. too bad people are interested in scoring political points instead of coming up with the optimum solution.