Contrary to the common jubiliion over the army’s truimph over militant in Swat, informed circles consider the military operation in Swat to be a minor re-adjustment by the power-estbalishment of Pakistan in itst strategy to confront US-NATO forces in Afghanistan. Before the operation Swat was surrendered to militants for following reasons.
-the so-called cushion effect of Swat’s geographic location …far from the threats of drone attacks and active surveilance of CIA spy planes/activities and dotted with mountains and inaccesible valleys, Swat provided ideal sanctuary for militants for training and regrouping. Reportedly, General Hamid Gul had once stated that the last battle against the West wouldl be fought from Swat.
-Swat also occurred between Afghanistan and Kashmir so facilitating the flow of fighters between Afghanistan and Kashmir. In fact, militants were permitted to occupy Bunair because Bunair was adjacent to Gadun Amazi which provided the shortest route (through Ogai, Amb, etc.) to Kashmir via Mansehra and Gari Habibullah …The other-more northern- route via Batagram and Shangla was long, difficult, and remote.
The other factor to select Swat as another sanctuary for militants after Waziristan was its economic value…The emerald mines of Mingora could provide good source of finances for the miltants. Same was true for Bunair, which has large deposits of marbles…So the militants after occupying Swat and Bunair first took control of these mines/deposits…
-One further factor in selecting Swat was that unlike tribal areas, the traditional elite of the area has weakened and cannot counter armed zealots like the jehadis.
But when militants started large-scale training in Swat, Dir, and Bunair, US -NATO were alarmed. Kiyani and Shuja Pasha (ISI chief) were summed to Washington and General Patreas issued them with a 15 days notice to either dismantle the militant’s new sanctuaries in Swat or be ready for US/NATO’s action in Swat. Hardliners like Hamid Gul and Co. etc. also had to comply for the eminent threat of an American wrath. And so Swat front was re-wond.
But as for Waziristan, the hardliners seem to have sent sharp signal to the govt of Pakistan with attack on GHQ that Swat is ok but action against sanctuaries in Waziristan will be met with a tit-for-tat reaction. The attack on GHQ may be viewed in this context.
I don't think the gov't and the miliary of Pakistan surrendered Swat over to the militants. If you recall, the people of Swat and surrounding areas were so enamored by Radio Mullah's brainwashing, that they allowed these people to infiltrate. It was only when they started making their military force obvious and began abusing women and bombing schools, that the people of swat began to realize what they had allowed in.
When folks were alarmed about movements in the area, no one wanted to go in militarily because it seemed that the Swati's were comfortable with the militant presence. Problem was that they didn't see these people as terrorists, but as a religious movement. They didn't bust out visibly with weapons until later.
I don't think the gov't and the miliary of Pakistan surrendered Swat over to the militants. If you recall, the people of Swat and surrounding areas were so enamored by Radio Mullah's brainwashing, that they allowed these people to infiltrate. It was only when they started making their military force obvious and began abusing women and bombing schools, that the people of swat began to realize what they had allowed in.
When folks were alarmed about movements in the area, no one wanted to go in militarily because it seemed that the Swati's were comfortable with the militant presence. Problem was that they didn't see these people as terrorists, but as a religious movement. They didn't bust out visibly with weapons until later.
Local support is the common spin Pakistani establishment has been putting on all that it has done since inception ...whether the 1948 infiltration of Kashmir with Jehadis, Operation Gibraltor of 1965 (training commondos in Murree and sending them to Kashmir to incite an insurgency), 1999 Kargil episode (the Mujahideen that occupied Kargil Heights turned out to be NLI Northern Light Infantory), or the nuclear proliferation (to North Korea, Libya, and Iran)....
The mistake they made in Swat was that they thought Swat will also turn out to be another Waziristan....Now Swatis along with other Pashtuns, and Pakistanis launched a concerted campaign drawing world's attention to what was happening in Swat....
I think disguising misadventures can no more help Pakistan.
I am confused where Pakistanis come up with these conspiracy theories. That opium from US held Afghanistan must be the **** if they can come up with stuff.