Re: Suicide bomber kills 102 in Baghdad
With what's happening right now? No.
If things were stable and peaceful with a friendly government? Yes.
Re: Suicide bomber kills 102 in Baghdad
Re: Suicide bomber kills 102 in Baghdad
I am shocked the US only has a dozen bases to support 150,000+ troops and the training of Iraqi troops. I would have guessed more.
Were permanent American bases in the ME a goal of the invasion and overthrow of Hussein? Of course.
Re: Suicide bomber kills 102 in Baghdad
hahahah.. so now all of a sudden u think we don't have enough bases there? and bases were an objective all along?
Re: Suicide bomber kills 102 in Baghdad
I don't know enough military logistics to comment on how many bases they need to support their mission. Maybe mad scientist can inform us.
But yea, anyone who thought the US was going in there and getting out is delusional.
Re: Suicide bomber kills 102 in Baghdad
USA is going to start pulling out troops by August or September of this year.
Malliki has said that Iraqi troops will be ready by then.
They won't be ready but it does give a time table for USA to withdraw
My guess, USA starts pulling out by September 2007. By March 2008, USA has around 60,000-70,000 Troops left in Iraq.
And by September 2008, USA has around 10,000-20,000 left.
Most if not all US troops are out of Iraq by March 2009.
Re: Suicide bomber kills 102 in Baghdad
so given that permanent bases were always a goal, do you figure that would be easy to accomplish in a peaceful iraq? do you figure the outcry in Iraq over these bases would be higher if there were no violence, especially from powerful sources that have thus far allowed the presence of American forces only so that they can bring peace about, sources such as Sistani?
im not asking if thats whats happening, but to categorically say that there is no benefit to America to have violence continue in Iraq is hard to defend.
Re: Suicide bomber kills 102 in Baghdad
If it was a pro-US govt (which the neocons were most likely stupid enough to believe), they probably thought they'd like the US presence for protection. Or maybe they thought they could 'force' them into keeping bases. Maybe they thought a Saddam-like shia would rule that would want them there. With the policies of the ayatollahs next door, I don't know why they'd think that, but these guys didn't think any thing through.
As stupid as the neocons are, surely they didn't think a long term civil war would be possible to manipulate and maintain to their liking. Are you suggesting the neocons wanted a 20 year war between shia/sunni?
Re: Suicide bomber kills 102 in Baghdad
look im not looking to build a hypothesis. any theory i come up with is likely to be as accurate in the details as my knowledge of the workings of a microwave. i could come up with an idea but you could always ask me questions i dont have the answers to.
On the other hand i know that its unwise to completely deny that there is a strategic benefit to continued violence in Iraq for the US.. especially violence that for the most part isnt directly targeted at US troops. It isnt about what the neo-cons thought, it is what the US govt is presently doing, i.e. accomplishing one of their objectives for invasion by building permanent bases. Permanent bases they wouldnt be able to so easily slip in under normal circumstances, certainly in Iraq with the currently dormant (and hugely powerful as we saw with the elections) Sistani, and possibly in their own voter base.
Whether or not the neo-cons calculated for a 20 year war, I dont know. Obviously if they can make the miscalculations they have so far they could possibly calculate that they’ll stop the sectarian violence three months after the last permanent base gets its paint job finished. I dont even know if neocons/illuminati/mr bush/mr cheney/etc etc behind all these machinations. You were very sure in your denial of strategic US gain though.
Re: Suicide bomber kills 102 in Baghdad
If the violence continues like this the US will leave. The American people are going to demand it. That is why I don't see it as a strategic gain.
Re: Suicide bomber kills 102 in Baghdad
you think so? i dont really see 120 shias being killed on Monday different in impact on the American public from 10 sunnies killed on Tuesday from 300 random people killed Thursday. the scale at which this violence has happened, and the degree to which it has numbed the Iraqi people into seeking ANY source of protection dwarfs the irritant value this issue holds for the US public. Yes if these numbers were for American troops you'd see the US army pulled out in a week, but beyond a change of faces, talk of debating some "non-binding" resolutions, what has impact been? Do you think things can get much worse for Iraqi people, and do you see how much of that impact registers in the US?
Im sure your well read in the Democratic opinion columns, arent there some people in your flanks who are calling for, have been calling for, drafts just so that more american people can "feel" the war? All I can see happening with the voter right now, inspite of Joe Iraqi being grounded into mincemeat is a case of annoyance at seeing the same images on the screen and having lousy national esteem.
Regardless of what the American people end up demanding, and believe me, there has been talk of the American people demanding stuff for a long time now, fact of the matter is, the violence has allowed the US to build those permanent bases without resistance from people in Iraq who hold moral authority for masses. That is a strategic gain that has been accomplished, or will be very soon anyway. Whether a continuation of this violence reverses that is another matter.
Re: Suicide bomber kills 102 in Baghdad
You really don't think things could get worse for the Iraqis? I think it could get A LOT worse. They could be killing thousands a day instead of hundreds. With the corruption, ability and lack of will of the Iraqi forces and government, I think there will be carnage on a massive scale if the US pulled out. And no one else is helping stop the carnage - not diplomatically, militarily, morally or any other way. Their bretheren are actually contibuting to the violence. Yet, they all want the US to get out. Go figure.
But I feel pretty sure that if things don't get better in the next 6 months the US WILL pull out. Especially since US troops are going to be more in the cross fire with this 'surge'. There are going to more US causalites, and as you pointed out, that's when the American public will will go ape.
Re: Suicide bomber kills 102 in Baghdad
nevertheless IMO unless US troops start dying in large numbers there will likely be no irresistable movement for pulling out.
i guess we'll have to disagree on whether assuming status quo perpetuates the US will pull out. we can agree though that if the violence stops NOW (or in the short term, say six months) the violence that has occurred so far will have allowed the US to accomplish a significant strategic objective?
Re: Suicide bomber kills 102 in Baghdad
ravage, it sounds like you are a proponent for the US pulling out. What do you see occuring when that happens? Will there be more or less of these mass bombings?
Re: Suicide bomber kills 102 in Baghdad
If USA pulls out, the Arab countries are probably gonna move in there.
Iran is gonna stabilize the Shia Areas while the Saudis and Egyptians are gonna help with the Sunni Areas.
I dont see Iraq becoming another Afghanistan if USA pulls out.
Because Iraq has a lot of oil, its right in the center of the middle east.
I dont think the Arabs and Iranians will allow Iraq to spiral into a Taliban like state which could threaten them as well.
I think USA should start pulling out of Iraq by September 2007 and be totally out by March 2009
Re: Suicide bomber kills 102 in Baghdad
US won't pull out, US is there for the long run. It would be foolish to think that US would pull out. IRaq is the next japan/South korea/Germany... too much oil at stake.
Cheap Oil = American economy = Superpower.
IF things do get out of hand and Shia sunni fighting worsens, US should pull out to kuwait, wait till both sides are done killing each other (obviously, those who can fight will fight and eventually get killed). Then move in and clean up the area from those that oppose the forces. Knowing how things are going already, don't think there will be any troublemakers left to police then. ;)
Re: Suicide bomber kills 102 in Baghdad
You blame everything on the Americans and yet take no accountability for the way sunnis and shias kill each other
Sorry Captain, you are totally wrong on this one
What is actually ridiculous is your comments. I am discussing inciting of riots and you are looking for condemnation of Shia Sunni fights. Go and see tens of threads where I have condemned sectarian violence.
Re: Suicide bomber kills 102 in Baghdad
im not a proponent for the US pulling out immediately if they can show any facility for handling the situation or even playing a noticeable positive role. unfortunately they do not have enough goodwill with the population and are holed up in their bunkers while all the stuff happens. if they start trying to play even a remotely effective police role they will need to venture out of their safety zones, will start getting a lot of casualties and will have to pull out.