Why Iran fuels the Balouch uprising in Pakistan and why does Pakistan have to grin and bear it
The Balouchi Sardars are again making news. This time again they are threatening an insurgency. Baluchistan has a troubled history since independence. The Khan of Kalat delayed accession to Pakistan till the last. Then again in early 60's the army had to be used to put down a rebellion in Kalat. The most prolonged period of unrest was in 1970s when the army had to fight an insurgency for over 3 years before it was crushed. SO Iran finds a fertile ground to exploit to sow an insurgency against Pakistan. But why does Iran do this?
According to an article in the London Sunday telegraph, by Massoud Ansari, Pakistan has quietly and unofficially blamed Iran for fueling the growing insurgency in Baluchistan, the strategically sensitive province where militant tribesmen have launched a series of terrorist attacks in recent weeks.
Senior government officials say Iran is encouraging "intruders" from within its own Balouch community to cross the 550-mile border with the Pakistani province and give support to the rebels.
Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency set up a unit in the provincial capital, Quetta, last year to monitor suspected Iranian activity in Baluchistan. Officials say that in addition to directly supporting the insurgency, Tehran's state-controlled radio has launched a propaganda campaign against Islamabad. "Radio Tehran broadcasts between 90 and 100 minutes of programs every day which carry propaganda against the Pakistan government," said a former interior minister. He added that Iran was suspected of providing financial, logistical and moral backing for the insurgency.
"All this violence is a part of a greater conspiracy," a senior Pakistani government official said. "These militants would not be challenging the government so openly without the backup of a foreign hand."
But what does Shia Iran gain by destabilizing Baluchistan. After all the Balouch are overwhelmingly Sunni. The reason is Iran's fear of Pakistani complicity in the impending American action against their country. Iran fears that Pakistan is about to reenact its role vis-a- vis the Taliban immediately after 9/11 and before the US action against the Taliban began
For any movement of American group troops into eastern Iran, Pakistan's support would be essential (this is similar to the US request to Turkey for allowing US marines to move into Iraq from its northern border with Turkey.) Iran's fundamentalist Muslim regime was last week put firmly in the sights of the second Bush administration by Vice President Dick Cheney. "You look around the world at potential trouble spots ? Iran is right at the top of the list," Mr. Cheney said.
Iran has exploited the prevailing grievance among tribesmen who claim to have been denied the benefits of Baluchistan's natural-gas fields. Earlier this month, Balouch rebels disrupted gas production in a series of rocket and mortar attacks, which killed eight persons. However, the reason Islamabad is delaying a formal complaint to Tehran, trying to sort out the issue thru private diplomatic channels and not raise it at the UN, as it does the Kashmir issue to keep under wraps the Pakistani gameplan of assisting the US in the impending action against Iran.
Pakistan does not want this to be highlighted to unleash the full fury of its own Jihadi constituency to raise hell as it did during the US action against the Taliban. So for the time being Pakistan has to grin and bear it. Meanwhile, large numbers of Pakistani troops are hunting rebels in the province and in turn are being hunted by the rebels, who have besieged a large battalion of Pakistani troops in Baluchistan. The battle is fierce although furtive.
Pakistani officials privately acknowledge that Tehran ? already furious at Pakistan's support for the U.S.-led war on terrorism ? has stepped up its activity in Baluchistan because of its anger at the construction of a vast deep-water port at Gwadar, close to the Iranian border, which it fears could be used by Washington as a base for monitoring and infiltrating and use it as a launch pad for moving ground troops in a future land assault on Iran.
Washington believes Iran is pursuing an advanced nuclear-weapons program in addition to sponsoring international terrorism, and has repeatedly accused Tehran of fomenting trouble within Iraq and through its proxy Hezbollah in Israel.
Senior American journalist Seymour Hersh had reported in the New Yorker that U.S. special forces had carried out recent reconnaissance missions inside Iran to identify nuclear, chemical and missile sites that could be targeted. Although the Bush administration brushed aside the claims, the report heightened the belief that the United States might be preparing to take action. The US obviously wants to hide the red rag, before it is ready to take on the bull.