Re: Statistical Comparison Between Musharraf and Preceding Governments
Now where are all those Anti-Musharraf people? I would like to see what they think of these figures.
Re: Statistical Comparison Between Musharraf and Preceding Governments
well figures and fact dont go well with them , they tend to think "sada zaradari/NS sher, baki herphair" and "away aye away NS/ZA away"
I have read the whole thread, even if stay neutral figures does speak ignore who was in the power.
trade deficit increased - ok I agree though Pakistan is not manufacturing hub and require almost all machinary from abroad for all new invesment and projects, manufacturing, industry, IT, telecoms heavily depend on imported equipment, another denting may be allowing imports of cars, every tom and harry now import cars again a bad but indirect effect of increased purchasing power in Pakistan.
initial period of boom in every economy has effect on direct imports, it was initiated, if economy stay on path it has been performing in last 8-9 years Pakistan will be on good standing. no matter who is in power they should continue the process for Pakistan sake.
less than $400m reserves in 1998 just remind me how much we have now??? or atleast at the end of 2007.
spock bhai discussion shouldnt effect your affiliation, if its good accept its good and where its not just say its bad. you pointing to load shedding - its bad planning this and previous governments no one planned well for future.
but dont say before musharraf we never had any load shedding? we always relied on short term solutions that doesnt work for long term
major power generation was done during an other dictator Ayoub khan. since then we never had any massive plans initiated, we are failed to see a single major dam commin to existance
Now where are all those Anti-Musharraf people? I would like to see what they think of these figures.
Brother, what do you want? They come and lie on thread again and again earning sin? People do not realise that when they fill bank accounts in Switzerland they debit their account somewhere :)
As for those who rant about trade deficit, they to me are just ignorant of knowledge and facts. Reason is that, trade deficit for a country does not matter at all rather it is good under certain circumstances. Most important is 'balance of payment' and that is what a country should always keep watching, as country's external account is most effected by that. For instance:
Trade deficit is exports minus imports. But a country earns and spends foreign currency in many other ways and not just export/import.
Biggest way Pakistan spends foreign currency during corrupt periods (when crooks like NS, BB rule) are by corrupt rulers taking foreign trips for medical reasons, shopping, holidays, etc ... all at the expense of Pakistan, and then using their corruptly obtained money to buy properties, Jewellery and most of all transferring billions of dollars they looted and plundered from Pakistan to their Switzerland bank accounts. These crooks and corrupts buy every dollar expatriates send home using hundi to transfer their looted and plundered rupees in their Switzerland accounts.
On the other hand, major foreign currency earning for Pakistan is not exports but workers remittance, that in my rough estimate is over 25 billion dollars a year ... though officially we get a fraction of that, but still, officially or unofficially, all of it is part of Pakistan dollar earnings.
Other major way of earning or spending foreign currency is services and invisibles (What I know, UK is one of the largest invisible foreign exchange earner in the world, whereas USA has the largest invisible external expenditure in the world). Further, FDI also affects balance of trade and Pakistan received plenty of FDI since 2001.
All earnings and expenditures adds together to give final balance of payment result. If balance of payment goes negative (that was norm throughout Pakistan history until Musharraf came to power), Pakistan has to borrow expensive dollars at 5 to 15 percent interest (depending on credit rating) to finance that. Balance of Payment = Total dollars Pakistan gets from all sources (other than loan) - minus - Total dollars Pakistan spends in all ways. Effect of negative balance of payment is:
External debt increasing
Rupee devaluing
Local debt increasing
Credit rating going down (or staying down if it is already down)
Chances of default on external debt (for Pakistan, it happened in 1999)
Well ... many bad could happen.
Though, balance of payment deficit has its own safety value, still it is harmful. That is, a country could never have huge balance of payment deficit as local currency start devaluing fast and other countries stop giving such parasite country dollars to spend, be that dollar as debt or whatever (exception is USA, because their currency itself is trading currency 'dollar').
Throughout Musharraf period (from 1999 to 2007), balance of payment was positive and that is why:
Pakistan external debt did not increased and Pakistan kept paying interest on debt taken by past crook.
Pakistan external debt to GDP ratio went down from over 60 percent (1999) to around 25 percent (June 2008).
Pakistan dollar reserves increased from below $1 billion to over $15 billion.
Pakistan National debt to GDP ratio went down from around 110 percent (1999) to around 52 percent (June 2008).
Pakistan currency did not devalue substantially and did not devalue from 2002 onward.
Pakistan came out of situation of being an international defaulter state (Pakistan technically defaulted in 1999) ... something that affects a country most and is major cause of bringing misery to the country.
Pakistan external credit rating kept getting better and better (since 1999) until crooks got into power (2008).
Pakistan stock market kept performing as best stock market in the world (rose from below 1200 in 1999 to around 16000 in 2008 ... a rise of 13 times from 1999.
Pakistan companies kept increasing dividend payments (for instance, average dividend of shares in 2007 rose around 10 times what it was in 1999)
Pakistan interest rate kept going down (Interest on savings was around 20 percent in 1999 that came down to around 5 percent at one time though it went up and was around 9 to 10 percent this year)
Pakistan average inflation that was over 10 percent during 1988 to 1999 (and most years during that decade saw over 10 percent inflation) got reduced to around 5 percent from 1999 to 2007 (there was seldom any year when inflation went above 10 percent).
Simple example for those who do not understand figures easily:
Let see what happens when balance of payment is negative ... though there is trade surplus of $5 billion:
Pakistan imports = $ 15 billion
Pakistan exports = $ 20 billion
Trade surplus would be $5 billion
Remittances to Pakistan = $ 5 billion
Pakistan exports plus remittances = $ 25 billion
Result = $10 billion surplus from trade and remittance.
But, at the same time if Pakistan spends $15 billion dollars on dollar interest payment, expenditure on foreign trips, health visits by people, other services, and other transfers than ... overall balance of payment would be $5 billion negative.
$ 15 billion - $ 10 billion (because of trade surplus and remittance) = $5 billion balance of payment deficit.
So, to cover this balance of payment $5 billion deficit, Pakistan have to cover that with their reserves (if they have enough) or would have to borrow increasing external (dollar) debts.
Now let see what happens when balance of payment is positive ... though there is trade deficit of $10 billion:
Pakistan imports = $ 25 billion
Pakistan exports = $ 15 billion
Trade deficit would be $10 billion
Remittances to Pakistan = $ 5 billion
Pakistan exports plus remittances = $ 20 billion
Result = $5 billion deficit from trade and remittance.
If Pakistan pays $5 billion interest on past debts than total deficit would be $10 billion.
But, at the same time if Pakistan earns $15 billion dollars from services, grants and other ways than Pakistan would have $5 billion balance of payment surplus.
This $5 billion balance of payment surplus Pakistan can use to increase their reserves or pay back past external (dollar) debts.
I hope that from above example, one can see the affects clearly.
Now, after knowing this, let see what happened during 1988-99 and 1999-2008:
1988 to 1999 (period of corrupts and thugs):
1988 = Pakistan reserves around $1 billion plus external debt around $17 billion.
1999 = Pakistan reserves below $1 billion plus external debt $38 billion.
[Actually, external or dollar debt was much more than $50 billion dollars in 1998 but Crook thug Nawaz Ganja stole those dollars and converted it to Rupee debt at the rate of Rs 46 to a dollar (or around Rs 10 less than market rate)].
So, Pakistan resulting balance was around $21 billion negative for year 1988-1999 (it would have been around $35 billion negative if Nawaz crook had not stolen dollars of expatriates].
Now let see what happened from 1999 to 2007 (period of honest General):
1999 = Pakistan reserves less than $1 billion plus external debt $38 billion.
Oct 2007 = Pakistan reserves around $15.6 billion plus external debt $40 billion.
Shows that total balance of payment was around $13 billion positive ... $15 billion increase in reserves but $2 billion increase in debt.
June 2008: present Pakistan external debt is 40.5 billion dollars.
Pakistan reserve is around $11 billion.
Re: Statistical Comparison Between Musharraf and Preceding Governments
Good post Saleem, but some here just do not get basic economic principals.
Musharraf lead a successfull regime, transforming the country as fast as one could. Bad things happened, but not before December 2007, when lawyers decided to shred economy into pieces, just because they thought Musharraf shredded the law. As if no one has done that before, as if we always had great economy, as if we always had the rule of law, as if we media always enjoyed freedom, as if we truly deserved democracy, even though the continue to elect the same baffoons over and over and over again.
Re: Statistical Comparison Between Musharraf and Preceding Governments
The elections of February proved how highly the people think about that senile dictator.
The elections of February proved how highly the people think about that senile dictator.
This thread proved that you know nothing about economics.
Alhamdulilallah. God bless the Unprecedented Economic Growth seen under the great leadership of Great President Musharaf and Shaukat Aziz. :k:
This thread proved that you know nothing about economics.
Yeah, because I think a negative trade deficit is a bad thing? No wonder you guys love an ex-cab driver so much that you follow his economic mindset too.
Yeah, because I think a negative trade deficit is a bad thing? No wonder you guys love an ex-cab driver so much that you follow his economic mindset too.
what is a positive trade deficit?
is that what Shareef had?
what is a positive trade deficit? is that what Shareef had?
Robert, please take some time out of 'haqparasti' and look at the chart I posted, you'll get the answer.
Is this the same chart that told you about decline in exports? 
kehkashan uncle, all thanks to beloved crook Musharraf and shortcut aziz, everything but mehngai and import has increased.
kehkashan uncle, all thanks to beloved crook Musharraf and shortcut aziz, everything but mehngai and import has increased.
You still can't read your own supplied chart?
Re: Statistical Comparison Between Musharraf and Preceding Governments
^ Yeah, explain to me why the imports went up geometrically and exports remained measly. Your MQM loyalty is making you senile just like Musharraf.