Over the last 3 years there is increasing budget deficit and progressively increasing imports while exports remain the same.
In 2002/3 the Trade deficit was 1 Billion Dollars
2004/5 it became 6.2 Billion Dollars
2005/6 it became 12 Billion Dollars
And by June 2007 it will be 13 Billion dollars.
In 2000 General Musharraf expressed concern that Trade Defict has increased to 1.5 Billion Dollars and said it will be overcome in next 2-3 years but now that it has increased 9 times, none seems to be bothered.
There was a Budget Surplus in 2002/3, of 4 Billion Dollars, which changed into Budget Deficit in 2003/4 and in 2005/6 the budget deficit was 5.2 Billion Dollars that has been the highest in history of the country.
Another matter of concern is that Government has been selling its assets to overcome budget deficit. In 2004/5 by selling its assets government got 10 Billion Dollars. However if we keep selling our assets to recover budget deficit what will we be left with?
Pakistani people have more money and can buy 'bahar ka samaan'. M*usharaf Zindabad*
Pakistan does no manufacture anything worth buying, or is unable to sell in quantities that will help reduce the deficit? Booo to Musharaf
Pakistani economy is very fragile. It cannot survive without political certainty. The growth and the feel good factor created under Musharaf is temporary.
Pakistan should learn lessons from the events of past 10 days.
... agree with Aalsi what he said in his 3rd "un-numbered" way, i.e., Political uncertainty. The first two points are just "symptoms" ... not the root cause of the present state.
"Buzrugs" say that when recovery/improvemet requires "surgery" ... the lesser doze or simple "disprene or disprole" is useless. But a real and competent "surgeon" is still awaited.
Let's see the political uncertainty factor. If it is true, why the deficit trend is on increasing side? It should be favourable when "strong" and mandatory political governments were assured. That shows the cure is other than a simple political certainty. I have close contact with general public, who face the after-affects of any change in CPI and/or Govt.'s shift from one economic sector to another. According to their views, present government is much better than any political government in term of peace and safety in "general public" ... though chess' important player(s) affected badly or being affected.
It is true that an effective planning is inevitable but without timely implementation in the supervision and control of some capable and competent "leadership" ... planning fails. You see, we have the best planners' and economists' development plans but the gaols were not achieved.
We should learn lesson from IBM's and several other giants' decision of "say goodbye" to manufacturing in favour of China.
As a neutral, I believe Pakistan has some good people in it's political heirarchy (e.g Shaukat Aziz, Khasuri and yes even Musharaf).
However, because they do not have the mandate from the people they will never be recognised for the good they have done, hence the political uncertainty.
If Pakistani people had any sense, they would wrap Shaukat Aziz in cotton wool and make sure nothing happens to him over the next 10 years (at least), and he be allowed to continue as Finance Minister. He is the best thing that has happened to Pakistan. However, I am sure the lootmaars will see it differently :)
Yes, mandate is one of the keys to a successful democracy. When we talked about a winner in democracy, we say that a candidate/party who have secured majority of the votes casted by the major part of the eligible population. But how many times the majority won in the history of Pakistan and who have fulfilled their promises. Sorry, I went to another direction that we will discuss on some other thread.
If we see the present state and stat. of under developed and developing countries, especially after globalization, we can predict that various economic trends will change its "standard" figures/percents/signs and specially when we compare it with its relatives. I mean, the Re. figure of trade deficit, PCI, GNP, PI, etc. etc. ... all these standards will have to be "re-set" to measure the performance under review, even the poverty line and the standard poverty line is also changed from time to time.
As for as our political history is concerned, we saw/see, whenever a pure political government came into strong mandate or power, Pakistan's economic stability becomes uncertain. We should not advocate and prefer certain democracy or mandate at the cost of economic stability/certainty. If we will be more prosperious, there will be political stability (that ... politicians will not "invest" in elections .. instead in productive activities) and the political stability will support economic stability and this cycle will become a prosperity cycle. The previous system, and even the present system also, supporting the vicious cycle of poverty.
So, more attention may be given to overcome economic instability/uncertainty than political uncertainty/instability.