Sri Lanka: A Win for Rajapakse – and India?
November 18, 2005 21 27 GMT
Summary
Sri Lankan Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse narrowly defeated former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe in Nov. 17 presidential elections. During Rajapakse’s six-year term, little will happen to advance the peace process with the rebel Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, and India will likely be given a bigger role in Sri Lankan affairs.
Analysis
In a tightly contested presidential election, Sri Lankan Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse of the ruling Sri Lanka Freedom Party defeated former Prime Minister and main opposition leader Ranil Wickremesinghe. In keeping with our prediction, Rajapakse won by a razor-thin majority over Wickremesinghe, achieved by the vote of the minority Tamil and Muslim populations. Though a significant number of Tamils and Muslims backed Wickremesinghe, the majority of Tamils in the rebel-controlled north and east followed a call by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam to boycott the election, thus providing Rajapakse with the necessary edge to win the election.
On the economic front, Rajapakse’s victory will discourage foreign investors due to his plans to implement a more protectionist economic policy for Sri Lanka. Rajapakse also seeks to undermine the Tigers by withholding tsunami reconstruction aid from the rebels to prevent them from bolstering their domestic support base, instead giving the central government control in rebuilding the country.
Rajapakse’s hard-line policy in dealing with the Tamil rebellion does not bode well for the fragile 2002 cease-fire implemented in by Wickremesinghe. After Rajapakse was declared the winner of the Nov. 17 ballot, Tiger rebels launched grenades into a mosque Nov. 18 during morning prayers, killing four men and wounding at least 25 others. Rajapakse intends to launch a complete overhaul of the cease-fire, diminish Norway’s role in the peace talks and allow for all Tamil parties to become involved in the peace talks in order to undermine Tiger commander Velupillai Prabhakaran. This strategy will serve renegade Tiger leader Col. Karuna’s plans to weaken Prabhakaran and so boost his own role in negotiations between the state and the Tamil minority.
Though Rajapakse’s hawkish stance towards the Tigers differs markedly from Wickremesinghe’s dovish approach, his election provides the Tigers with ample time to rebuild their infrastructure provided they maintain the current cease-fire enough to keep the Sri Lankan military at bay. Potentially complicating this, however, is Rajapakse’s intent to build stronger ties with India, allowing New Delhi to play a bigger role in the stagnant peace process. This is good news for the South Asian giant, which continually seeks to promote itself as the big brother of South Asian affairs. India will use Colombo’s support to counter a growing regional push-back against its efforts to break out of its backyard into the global geopolitical arena.