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*Originally posted by spoon: *
MV, failure may not be an option but it is a possibility.
Determination is great, but there are limits to our rationally being involved. We may be determined to "see it through" but if we trip too many times between now and the end-state we may never reach that goal. Or it may become overly burdensome to continue pursuing that goal at some point (consider the possibility of events still happening outside of Iraq, competing for political and financial attention). Ways to minimize the possibility of this kind of failure would include having a clearly defined plan for reaching the goal.
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Spoon: Failure is always a possibility when one endeavors to do something. That's true of people, companies, nations, and what have you. In private life, my observation is that people who do not attempt to do something because there is a risk of failure almost always are what I consider failures. I am old enough now that I can look back and see many failures behind me. I can also point to some successes that I am pretty darn proud of. Taken together, I am a better person and better off today for my lifetime of failures and successes.
Of course, one must balance taking a particular risk by looking at the downside from failure and comparing it with the upside of success. Once the risk/reward ratio is determined, you still do not end the analysis. You must also weigh in what you consider the probable positives and/or negatives from doing nothing and maintaining your status quo. Sometimes the risk you take may be high but is justified because you determine that not taking it will lead to a probable outcome that is not acceptable to you. In some cases, the probable result of a high risk failure is not significantly worse than the probable result from not taking the risk at all.
The analysis, even in personal affairs, sometimes becomes very complicated and the best course of action is not always absolutely clear. Once you make your choice though, you've got to believe in your decision 100% and give 100% of your efforts to obtain your objective.
I think that is the kind of analysis our government made in deciding to go after Saddam. There is no doubt that certain segments of the world believed that America had gone soft. They believed that neither the government nor the people had the stomach for committing to a sustained, difficult, long-term military commitment of force. They believed that a small number of dead bodies and pictures of our citizenry mutilated and dragged through the streets was all it took to cow us as a nation and make us subservient to their agenda. They believed that the videotaped beheading of Daniel Pearl would somehow make us accede to their will.
I believe that another part of the assessment was that the people I refer to above were considered to be a fanatical but oh so violent minority of Muslim extremists. Our assessment was that their will would not be challenged or confronted by the majority of the Arab and/or Muslim masses or even the Arab or Muslim governments in the world. After all, if these fanatics were powerful enough to cow down even the US government with all its military might, why should the average guy or isolated dictator or royal family try. I believe that our assessment was that the Arab and Muslim masses and goevernments did not love and cherish the fanatics but gave them a wide path out of a healthy dose of respect for their willingness to commit any atrocity and any bestial act to accomplish their objective. I believe our assessment was and is that the Arab and Muslim masses and governments needed to be convinced that these fanatics and thugs could and would be defeated and that the US would take any measures necessary to squash each and every one of them no matter how costly the effort and no matter how long the commitment. I believe our assessment was that eventually, the Arab and Muslim masses would realize that the fanatical extremists were "dead-enders" and that their time in the sun would be short. I believe our assessment was that eventually the Arab and Muslim masses and governments would be willing to confront and assist in routing out these fanatics from their midst because they were sure and certain of receiving whatever aid and support we had to do so and that their defeat was a certain outcome. Thus, we, by our actions and resolve, would reduce the risks associated with them deciding to take action against these fanatics.
I think these assessments are still right. I think the fanatical extremists also believe these assessments are true. They are fighting now in Iraq for their very existence and acceptance in the world. And the Arab and Muslim masses and governments are closely watching what our response will be to the tough fight. We simply can not cut and run in Iraq. If we did, we might as well close all our military bases around the world, bring our soldiers home, fence off our borders, stop immigration, and withdraw like a turtle in a shell and hope the fanatics just leave us alone.
[BTW: I enjoy the civil discussion. Thanks.]