Group F
Sri Lanka haven’t yet lost a match in the tournament, but their first defeat could knock them out of the ICC World Twenty20. That’s because New Zealand, the team they’ll play on Tuesday, have a superior net run rate, and it will remain that way if Sri Lanka lose that game. If Pakistan win, they will almost certainly get through to the semi-finals along with New Zealand. So, even though Sri Lanka have a spotless record in the tournament so far, their narrow margin of victory against Ireland means they’ll face a must-win situation again on Tuesday, unless Ireland repeat their World Cup heroics against Pakistan on Monday.
Pakistan, for their part, face a must-win situation themselves. Thanks to their comprehensive win against New Zealand, their net run rate is good enough to ensure that a win by almost any margin will see them through. There is the extremely unlikely scenario of Pakistan’s NRR dropping despite a win, and Sri Lanka’s moving above Pakistan’s despite a loss, but the likelihood of such a situation is so slim that it can almost certainly be ruled out.
For New Zealand, the equation is simple - beat Sri Lanka and make it to the last four, lose and be knocked out.
Group E
England’s win against India means the equation in this group is pretty straightforward: South Africa are already in the semi-finals, where they’ll be joined by the winner of Monday’s game between West Indies and England. If that game is washed out, West Indies will progress on the basis of their superior net run rate.
=-========================
Pakistan always has too many Ifs and buts involved in their way. The situation is very tricky, but INSHA ALLAH Pakistan will do it. :jhanda:
Re: Semis situation still very tricky for Pakistan.
It still baffles me how a team's Net Run Rate (NRR) could drop with a win, yet that's exactly what happened to Sri Lanka. Before the game against Ireland today, they had a NRR of 0.95. After beating Ireland, their NRR dropped to 0.70. I had assumed that the NRR would always go up with a win (since a win means a team scored more runs in less overs than the opposition).
Anyway, Group F is strange because no team is assured of a semifinal berth, and all four teams have a theoretical chance of making it to the semis. Good news for Pakistan is that Sri Lanka isn't assured a semi final place either, therefore they will take their NZ game very seriously. A NZ loss tremendously helps Pakistan's cause.
Currently, Pakistan's NRR is lower than New Zealand's, so I don't agree with the statement that "a win by almost any margin will see them through". Pakistan must win BIG against Ireland to overcome the possibility of New Zealand's win against Sri Lanka, and the decision going to NRR. The more runs Pakistan scores, the lesser the margin of victory they need to maintain their NRR. According to my calculations, if Pakistan scores 120, they must win by 17 runs to maintain their NRR. If they score 150, they must win by 13 runs or more. If they score 200, they only need to win by 7 runs. Hence a big win in a high-scoring game against Ireland is essential, otherwise NZ could narrowly beat SL and they'd both go through to the semis at Pakistan's expense. A low-scoring game tomorrow is to Pakistan's detriment.
Again, this is not like the 1992 World Cup where at one stage, there was one and only one scenario left for Pakistan (win their last 3 group games, and hope Australia beats West Indies). Here Pakistan has multiple ways to make it through.
^ well that's simple. Say you have three games and your NRR is 3.00 after two comprehensive wins by 40 odd runs each. You win your 3rd game as well but only just - say by 10 runs. Your NRR w'd still be in credit but it w'd drop to around 2.5+/-
Must not rely on other teams to do us favours at this level. The equation is simple. We MUST go out and beat Ireland and beat them well and we are thru to the semis regardless of the outcome of SLA v NZ game.
Re: Semis situation still very tricky for Pakistan.
Younis might have had the 2007 game on his mind when he said that, there is a score to settle. A simple win may be fine to get to the semis but not for the 4 players who were in that 2007 game.
I hope Younis watched SL vs IL game, and bowls out his spinners.
Re: Semis situation still very tricky for Pakistan.
If SL lose against NZ, isn't it possible that Pakistan can end up as the top of Group F? Our NRR might still be higher than NZ if it ends up being a close game.
Guys, this is all a waste of time. Pakistan are now definitely through to the Semis. The batlle is between New Zealand & Sri Lanka tomorrow. I am hopeing for a NZ win so Pakis can top the Group and meet West Indies in the Semis. A Semi-Final with SA will not be a good thing for Pakistan as SA are looking very strong without much weaknesses in their squad.
Golden & brahmachari bros, what happens now if SL bats first & scores 300 runs and NZ score 301 ?
can SL bump their NRR above pak in a loss ?
Well 300 is a near impossible scenario in T20. 180+ is more like it. say Windies score 200, if NZ win in the last over it WONT boost their NRR. If however they chase it down in fewer overs (say 17) their NRR MIGHT improve depending on what it had been prior to that game
Remember NRR = TOTAL Runs FOR/x no. of OVERS minus Total Runs AGAINST/x no. of OVERS
Re: Semis situation still very tricky for Pakistan.
Paksitan, SA and WI confirmed semi finalists, one fo SL and NZ to go through. lets hope NZ wins but with a lower RR than SL and gets knocked out and Pak stays on top and therfore avoids SA in the semis.
Golden & brahmachari bros, what happens now if SL bats first & scores 300 runs and NZ score 301 ?
can SL bump their NRR above pak in a loss ?
No matter what happens now, at least one of these teams will end up with a net run rate lower than Pakistan. In your imaginary scenario, Sl 300, NZ 301, both SL and NZ end up with a NRR much much lower than Pakistan (Pakistan would top the table and won't have to face South Africa in the semis then) :)
Paksitan, SA and WI confirmed semi finalists, one fo SL and NZ to go through. lets hope NZ wins but with a lower RR than SL and gets knocked out and Pak stays on top and therfore avoids SA in the semis.
SL is going to top group which will make Pakistan F2. Pakistan will be playing the semi final on Thursday with E1.
A loss against India today could possibily make Saffies E2 and thus enabling Windies to top E group and becoming E1.
