any thoughts? strategic issues may be the reasoning used in this report, i wonder about political instability issues also being potential problems.
Pak may launch nukes against India’
Wednesday, 02 February , 2005, 19:08
Washington: A US-based think tank has said that Pakistan, given the lack of its strategic depth, may use nuclear weapons against India to counter successes of the larger Indian conventional forces.
However, it ruled out a similar attack by New Delhi.
“India and Pakistan appear to understand the likely prices to be paid by triggering a conflict. But nationalist feelings run high and are not likely to abate,” the National Intelligence Council said in a chapter titled, ‘Pervasive insecurity: Envisaging possible developments by 2020’.
“Under plausible scenarios, Pakistan might use nuclear weapons to counter success by the larger Indian conventional forces particularly given Pakistan’s lack of strategic depth,” the council report said.
It said, “even if conflict would break out over Taiwan or between India and Pakistan, outside powers as well as the primary actors would ant to limit its extent.”
“Advances in modern weaponry — longer ranges, precision delivery, and more destructive conventional munitions — create circumstances encouraging the pre-emptive use of military force,” the report said.
Re: Report says Pak may launch nukes against India
^^
Pakistan has always had a weak conventional military that for decades it could not sustain resistance in a full scale conventional war for more than a month.
Maintaining that it is willing to use nukes first gives Pakistan options. Given that it has about 4 weeks conventional fighting capacity, Pakistan can fight conventionally for 2 weeks, then use nukes to disperse larger formations of Indian troops from massing for attacks.
This would reduce the intensity of the conflict (in conventional terms) and therefore allow the 2 weeks of fighting capability to strech out further.
Using nuclear weapons against the troops of the opposing side would prevent future land battles between the armies (as mentioned, troops massing for a battle would be nuked). This would cause the opposing armies to disengage from each other, being unable to fight, and thus lead to peace since no further conflict would be possible. Both Indian and Pakistani troops would be dispersed in pockets across the countryside, with any attempt to launch an attack by either side being met with a small sun being created momentarily and vapourising the unfortunate soldiers.
The flip side of the coin is the risk that crossing the nuclear Rubicon with tactical nuclear warheads would escalate to a strategic nuclear exchange and the annihilation of population centres, rather than military concentrations.
But, given the choice between extremely likely eventual conventional military defeat, and the possibility to end the war with a return to the status quo through using nukes, the latter option seems attractive. It is .... unfortunate ... that this latter option will lead either to the status quo or to the single greatest annihilation of human beings the world has ever seen.
Re: Report says Pak may launch nukes against India
In a nuclearised battlefield, it become impossible to take further ground, becuase to take ground you must concentreate troops to take out whatever defenders are present (the required ratio for an attack generally being 3 attackers per defender).
One you start having a concentration of troops, a ballistic missile can neutralise them with a low-yield nuclear warhead.
As India and Pakistan continue to make advances in miniturisation, they well both develop the kind of nuclear artillery shells that NATO and the Warsaw Pact wielded in the 60s. This will enable to single artillery gun, let alone a missile, to deny large numbers of troops the ability to congregate within its range.
In this way, nuclear weapons can prevent the further seizure of land by either side.
The return to the status quo would be achived by the fact that so long as any land was occupied by either side, any attempt to annex it would be foiled because the disruption to military administration that a nuclear attack could cause.
For example, supposing a province was annexed, and then the locals began an insurgency. The occupying power starts sending reinforcements to the province, but the roads leading to the province are subjected to bombardment by low yield nuclear warheads. Troop garrisons in the province are vapourised. It becomes impossible to occupy land so long as the troops occupying it are vulnerable to nuclear attack.
(As a side note, I once spoke to a guy in my company who for a few years in the 1960s was responsible for the “special weapons” of a US 155mm gun battery in West Germany. He said the plan, should the war ever go nuclear and the “special weapons” used, was basically to fire the small nuclear shells the gun had and then wait to die in the nuclear reaction from the Soviet side)
Re: Report says Pak may launch nukes against India
Extra note: My projections for Pakistan's nuclear usage are based on the assumption that Pakistan would follow a similar plan to NATO in the 1970s, when the Soviet Union held what was (incorrectly) thought to be an overwhelming military advantage.
Declassified documents revealed that NATO intended to be the first to initiate a nuclear exhange, attacking strictly military targets to prevent the Soviet military from being able to attack or hold territory.
NATO, like Pakistan, hoped that such targetting of military units at the front line would not lead to strategic nuclear attacks, but, like Pakistan, was prepared for strategic nuclear warfare and the annihilation of it enemies population centres should the war escalate to such horrific levels.
Re: Report says Pak may launch nukes against India
Why worry about such nonsence when a son of Delhi is running pakistan? Pak will do nothing o the sort and be a second tier power in south asia for eons to come.
Re: Report says Pak may launch nukes against India
The situation you mentioned is highly unlikely. You dreamt a lot before posting this.
In case of nuclear war the fate of battle will be decided in few days resulting in the complete defete of one side. Nuclear war between two nuclear power countries is a new type of warefare which is never experienced before. So you cannot say anything for sure. but certainly it will lead to chaos and disorganization among the troops. the country which could still organize its forces will have an upperhand.
Pakistan cannot start nuclear war. it lacks strategic depth and has lesser number of nukes. India being bigger and having second strike ability will be equally formidable even if pak attacks first. so there will be no more two weeks thing. Ofcourse india will have to pay heavily in the terms of human lives. Pakistan can only fight limited and indirect wars with india. full scale war is not an option nukes or no nukes.
The local insurgency will only lead to genocide as both the countries wouldnt care about the human rights . who needs roads to send their toops , we dont live in 14th century.
You should not forget the “America” factor too. They are already in Pakistan and it is again unlikely that they will go back any soon.
lets hope that there will be no nuclear war between two countries.
Re: Report says Pak may launch nukes against India
This got to be stupidest plan I ever heard. Do you think if India is willing to fight for 4 weeks with you to defeat you totally, it will walk away after 2 weeks because now you threw a nuke the army formations?
Re: Report says Pak may launch nukes against India
In the 21st century, one country can defeat the other totally if it wants/can but it can't just annex them. So even if Indian army si trong enough to defeat Pakistan totally, it won't be able to annex it or occupy it. meaning they can defeat the army but they can't defeat the country. So there is still future even in case of a total defeat. Under such conditions starting to use nukes so that defeat is not complete but partial benefits only few generals who are in power so that they can cling to it some more time.
Re: Report says Pak may launch nukes against India
The policy of refusing to rule out first use of nukes was instated by our last entirely democratic government, led by Mian Nawaz Sharif, when there were no generals in power. Think back to the post-nuclear international diplomacy of 1998.
Re: Report says Pak may launch nukes against India
India probably wouldn’t walk away after 2 weeks in the aftermath of the first nuclear strike. It would launch at least one additional effort to mass troops and attack, but would find it to be impossible to do so in the face of nuclear barrages.
The war would degenerate into a case of trying to hunt down and eliminate the other side’s nukes, so as to enable conventional war to resume.
But with every Indian and Pakistani airbase close enough to the conflict theatre to enable reconnaisance flights destroyed by low-yield warheads, you won’t be able to use planes to accurately find the enemy missiles well behind the front lines.
India’s satellite surveillance capability is not sufficiently developed to be able to identify mobile nukes in the absence of an air force capacity, whilst Pakistan’s satellite surveillance is non-existent.
Neither India nor Pakistan would have the capacity to identify and destroy all of the other side’s nukes; with nukes still available any attack by either side would be guaranteed to fail, any attempt to occupy any land would be guaranteed to fail, and thus a status quo would be guaranteed.
Unless an escalation occured, in which case tens of millions, if not hundreds of millions, of innocent deaths would be guaranteed.
Re: Report says Pak may launch nukes against India
After decades of 1 Muslim = 10 Hindu theory, Pakistan army will never regain face after losing any battle at home to India. After 1971, Zulfiqar Bhutto saved them, but next time, it will be the end. That is why they’d likely rather nuke than to lose face.
Re: Report says Pak may launch nukes against India
abey scientist, india ke pass bhi to nukes hain.. so where does the war go from there??? from a conv war it becomes nuclear.. thats even worse.. instead of 4 weeks of war and maybe a few years of fallout, it will prolong to a few centuries.. we desis aint as enterprising as the japs.. ek baar atom bum lag gaya to sab log charpay peti leke koi aur shehr ko nikal padenge.