An article in Dawn discusses the possible consequences of regime change in Iraq.
It is very obvious that it will make the ME Muslim states weaker than they were ever before after the establishment of Israel. A change in regime can result in anarchy and/or disemberment of Iraq into Shia South, Sunni Centre, and North Kurdistan. An independent Kurdistan would inspire potential uprising of Kurds in Iran and Turkey, which will weaken and might distract Iran’s foreign policy towards Palestine issue. Israel ofcourse will appreciate these favors. “More ominously, a break-up of Iraq could set in motion a process of fragmentation in the region whose dimensions and consequences are hard to predict…In such an unstable Middle East, mini-states ruled by petty tyrants will be at each other’s throats, and will be dependent on the US more than some of the Arab potentates at the moment are.”
A part from political reason, OPEC consisting of mini arab states would be easier to exploit than it is today. 9/11 has strengthen the unipolar world of US having no military opposition. Uncle Sam would sure like to avail this opportunity.
“Kissinger’s case for an attack on Iraq” Muhammad Ali Siddiqi
http://www.dawn.com/2002/08/26/op.htm#2