Reforms help improve economic conditions:ADB report

Why not IK & TuQ want the system to move and if PML-N not perform after 4 years , people will throw them out of political arena just like PPP !

**Reforms help improve economic conditions of Pakistan: ADB report
**
September 25, 2014 - Updated 147 PKT

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**ISLAMABAD: The reforms initiated by the government helped improve economic conditions during the fiscal year 2013 says Asian Development Bank (ADB) latest report released on Thursday. **

The continuation of economic reforms and efforts to improve the security environment would improve business confidence and help revive private investment says Asian Development Outlook 2014 Update.

The report says that reflecting some improvement in electricity supply that facilitated increased industrial production GDP growth reached an estimated 4.1% in FY2014 (ended 30 June 2014) unexpectedly accelerating from 3.7% in FY2013.

Renewed support from development partners and a 2 billion eurobond issue the first in 7 years helped stabilize the currency and rebuild foreign exchange reserves from very low levels it said.

This Update revises the growth projection for FY2015 to 4.2% however says even concerted reform will need several years to eliminate electricity and gas shortfalls and to effect the change needed to lift structural constraints on growth. The consolidated fiscal deficit excluding grants was contained at 5.5% of GDP in FY2014 down from an average of 8.0% in the previous 3 years it said adding this improvement came mainly from a large one off increase in nontax revenues and a provincial cash surplus equal to 0.3% of GDP.

According to the report the budget for FY2015 targets further reduction in the fiscal deficit to 4.9% of GDP through expenditure economies reduced energy subsidies and a provincial cash surplus equal to 0.9% of GDP. Headline inflation increased to an average of 8.6% in FY2014 from 7.4% in the previous year lower than the ADO 2014 forecast. Consumer price inflation was volatile through the year because of food price spikes in the first half of 2014.

In response the central bank kept monetary policy tight in FY2014 increasing the policy rate by a cumulative 100 basis points to 10%. Inflationary expectations have nevertheless stabilized according to a May 2014 joint survey of business and consumer sentiment with respondents apparently reacting to exchange rate stability stemming from improved financial inflows in the second half of FY2014 and reduced government borrowing from the domestic banking sector to support the budget.

Inflation is now expected to average 8.2% in FY2015 slightly lower than FY2014 the report predicts. Security challenges floods in September 2014 in parts of the country and political demonstrations pose downside risks to the FY2015 forecast it adds.

The current account deficit in FY2014 was essentially unchanged from the previous year s 1.1% of GDP and slightly below the ADO 2014 forecast it said adding the trade deficit widened moderately but this was largely offset by continued strong growth in remittances from overseas workers.

The projection for the current account in FY2015 is unchanged it adds. Collectively South Asia is performing better than expected as the sub regional growth forecast for 2014 is edged up slightly to 5.4% in 2014. The improvement reflects strengthening in Bangladesh on export growth and in Pakistan on higher remittances while growth in India in 2014 is expected to revive to 5.5% as previously forecast after 2 disappointing years below 5%. Growth in South Asia will pick up to 6.1% in 2015 0.3 percentage points faster than previously forecast.

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Re: Reforms help improve economic conditions:ADB report

**Why not IK & TuQ want the system to move and if PMl-N not perform after 4 years , people will throw them out of political arena just like PPP !

**Lo kel lo baat, agla election PPP ka hi to hai... parinda bhai aap polotics choro pakwaan banane wali terkeebain share kero.

Re: Reforms help improve economic conditions:ADB report

Forget about it , 2013 mein bhi jis trah burg ulte thae log heraan reh gye thae.

A lot of mistakes from the media side , but give the credit where due that the awareness it created in the last 5 years specially , now masses in Pak will give vote only to that party who will perform. 90s politics now over

Re: Reforms help improve economic conditions:ADB report

Credit to #immo](http://www.paklinks.com/gs/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=immo) bhai. Parinda bhai do u agree?

Re: Reforms help improve economic conditions:ADB report

yes , imran ke bhi is mein kafi role play kiya hai to educate common man and specially the elite class which used to spend election day as a holiday before

Re: Reforms help improve economic conditions:ADB report

Outlook: ADB projects 4.2% growth for Pakistan

By Shahbaz Rana
Published: September 26, 2014

http://i1.tribune.com.pk/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/767355-ADB-1411668986-899-640x480.JPG

The report stated that the significant power tariff increase in the previous fiscal year helped reduce subsidies, but savings were partly offset to cover improved supply. PHOTO: STOCK IMAGE

**

ISLAMABAD: ** The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has projected a 4.2% economic growth rate for this year but warned that increasing security concerns, political demonstrations and effects of recent floods pose downside risks to the Pakistani economy.

The Manila-based lending agency’s growth projection is around 1% less than the target the government has set for itself. The 4.2% projection is also half than the pace the country needs to create jobs for thousands of people every year. The projections were made in the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) Updated – its flagship annual report.
The continuation of economic reforms and efforts to improve the security environment would help business confidence and revive private investment, it added.

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The report stated that the government’s Vision 2025 also underlines that long-term development is not possible without political stability, security, and the rule of law. The ADB said several years of concerted national commitment would be required to eliminate electricity shortages and affect the structural reforms necessary to achieve high and inclusive growth.

The report argued that the projected 4.2% growth rate in the current fiscal year reflects some easing of fiscal consolidation and increased allocations for public sector development spending. But continuing reforms and a better security environment would further boost business confidence and foster private investment. It cautioned that the prospects of strong growth in manufacturing depend on further progress in easing energy shortages.
The updates came at a time when the government is struggling to cope with the challenges posed by protesters and the aftermath of floods. Due to increasing political pressure, the government has already started backtracking from committed reforms.

The ADB said Pakistan’s ability to achieve current fiscal year’s budget deficit target of 4.9% also hinges on reforms in the energy and taxation areas. While in most major categories of spending is projected to be increased by double digits, the report added that the government is expecting large savings from a 37% drop in subsidies, which is equal to 0.6% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It added the savings have been anticipated mainly by cutting untargeted power subsidies.

“Containing subsidies will be a challenge given overruns in recent years, and success will depend on implementing power sector reforms to raise tariffs enough to meet costs, improve collection, reduce leakage and invest in generation, transmission, and distribution systems”, it observed.

Contrary to its commitment to the International Monetary Fund, the government has already announced freezing increase in power tariffs due to fear of public backlash.

The ADB report stated that the significant power tariff increase in the previous fiscal year helped reduce subsidies, but savings were partly offset to cover improved supply.

The ADB has projected that average inflation is expected to slow down to 8.2% in this fiscal, slightly down from 8.6% in the previous fiscal year.

The ADB also revised its economic growth projection to 4.1% for the last fiscal year, up from its earlier estimates. It said the upturn came from improved industrial performance: a pickup in construction by 11.3%, continued growth in large-scale manufacturing at 4%, and electricity supply improved by 3.7%, owing largely to the government’s clearance of intra-industry debt.

However, it highlighted areas the government ignored in its first year. The contribution of investment was low by 0.2%. The ratio of fixed investment-to-GDP continued to decline falling to 12.4% in last fiscal year compared with 12.6% of fiscal year 2013. The private and public enterprise investment in the various production sectors slipped to 9.9% of GDP. Net exports turned negative, subtracting 0.7% from GDP as import growth outpaced export.
*

Published in The Express Tribune, September 26[SUP]th[/SUP], 2014.*

Re: Reforms help improve economic conditions:ADB report

issi baat per parinda bhai kio aik pappi banti hai,.