i agree. i just think a lot people assume the legacy princely state’s borders would be of relevance in a plebiscite. a lot of pro-independence kashmiris are likely under the impression that their new nation would be the existing state re-branded. i wonder how many would still secede knowing that the new nation would be comprised of a handful of tehsils. in other words, even in their best case scenario india would never allow any territory not populated by a secessionist majority to secede even if the overall vote was above 50%.
this isn’t an argument against their right to self-determination, just thoughts on the outcome.
i don’t think any conceivable outcome would necessitate forcible mass migration. the area that could conceivably comprise a new country was ethnically cleansed decades ago.