Re: Rebuffed by China, Pakistan May Seek I.M.F. Aid.
I doubt Pakistan would get any monetary support given the current global economic conditions even the $6 billion oil credit never really materialized and now Zardari is scrambling to Saudi Arabia to beg for anything which could be tossed Pakistan's way....
Prince Abbas: Most of Pakistani energy is imported. The news below is from early June when dollar was around Rs 68 and subsidy mentioned is when country’s energy demands are not fully met. Now think that dollar is already 25 percent up at around Rs 85, and suppose government decides that country’s energy demands get fully met, than what subsidy would be required. Obviously, it could be anywhere around Rs500 billion or more. [Maybe reduction in oil price might help and it would also help if value of rupee improves].
Pakistan total tax collection during fiscal year 2007-08 was around Rs1000 bn. In year 2008-09, federal government might collect around Rs 1300 bn as tax and might borrow around Rs 700 bn (most likely more). Almost half of tax revenue, around Rs 600 bn would go to provinces. Maybe around Rs 600 bn would go on debt servicing and around Rs 300 billion on defence. Then there are other government expenses. So what you think, government should spend Rs 500 billion of tax revenue just to subsidise energy demands of the country?
Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan
10 June 2008:
Rs 250bn likely in electricity and oil subsidies in 2008-09
** Rs 80bn-100bn subsidy for electricity consumers, Rs 150bn for oil sector*
** DISCOs seeking 35 percent increase in power tariffs*
By Zafar Bhutta
ISLAMABAD: The government is likely to allocate around Rs 250 billion in subsidies to electricity and oil consumers in the upcoming 2008-09 budget, sources told Daily Times on Monday.
Sources in the Petroleum Ministry said that the government had decided on the subsidy after considering the available financial resources. However, they added that the government still owed billions of rupees to the power and oil sectors and as such it would be difficult for the government to arrange such a large sum.
Target: The government has targeted Rs 80 billion - Rs 100 billion subsidy for electricity consumers in the upcoming 2008-09 budget and a further Rs 150 billion for the oil sector to facilitate the consumers, they added.
The sources said that following the current hike in oil prices, the subsidy in the power sector would increase by Rs 130 - Rs 140 billion during the forthcoming fiscal year.
Increase: They said that Power Distribution Companies (DISCOs) have filed a petition with the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority seeking an increase of 35 percent in the power tariff due to the hike in oil prices. The increase sought by the DISCOs would be implemented by July 1, 2008, they added.
In the 2007-08 budget, the government had notified a 10 percent increase in the power tariff. The government is expected to pass on a similar increase this year, while bearing the remaining amount in the form of subsidy.
The Petroleum Ministry sources said that the government had paid Rs 150 billion price differential claims to Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), adding that pending claims would likely increase to Rs 100 billion by June 15. They claimed that the government was attempting to reduce the margin of OMCs and general sales tax on petroleum products to stabilise oil prices.
The sources said that the government was also considering another option to reduce the burden of subsidy on the exchequer by abolishing the subsidy on diesel products by the end of 2008. They said that the government could also maintain a reasonable subsidy on petrol and diesel by reducing the subsidy on petrol and kerosene oil.
---------------------cvabn--------------------
Lets face it. If it was’nt for the war on terrorisim, Pakistan would have not alliegned with the weakening power of the usa. How can you say that usa downfall does not effect Pakistan? Currently Pakistan is fully tainted with usa colors and hence has to take good or bad as it comes.
From micro economics pov Pakistan’s non functional infra structure has to take full responsibility for failures to lure investments with sustaining results. < These investments we talk about are mobile or liquid investments and can be shipped out at the first sign of alarm index at the stock market. One cannot count heavely on such market positions.
Pakistan need heavy investments from abroad in shape of infra structure, heavy industry, technical sector as well as resourse managment. without this Pakistan will progress below par as we have seeen so far.
---------------------cvabn-------------------- Lets face it. If it was'nt for the war on terrorisim, Pakistan would have not alliegned with the weakening power of the usa. How can you say that usa downfall does not effect Pakistan? Currently Pakistan is fully tainted with usa colors and hence has to take good or bad as it comes. From micro economics pov Pakistan's non functional infra structure has to take full responsibility for failures to lure investments with sustaining results. < These investments we talk about are mobile or liquid investments and can be shipped out at the first sign of alarm index at the stock market. One cannot count heavely on such market positions.
Pakistan need heavy investments from abroad in shape of infra structure, heavy industry, technical sector as well as resourse managment. without this Pakistan will progress below par as we have seeen so far.
I think that Prince Abbas is partially right in saying that:
[quote]
I don't think there is an immediate fall out of American financial crisis anywhere in developing world.
[/quote]
Though American crisis has affected countries like India and China because they are heavily dependent on American economy, American present crisis did not affect most third world countries, especially Pakistan. On the other hand, situation is not that bad for any countries what it is for Pakistan.
Actually, present Pakistani situation has nothing to do with American financial crisis or any external crisis, including oil price or 'American war on terror'. Pakistani crisis is obvious result of mismanagement by present government, their attitude in governance, and lack of confidence by people with money on this government. Last government brought growth and prosperity in the country because they earned respect and trust of investors from world over. This government has scared them away.
For instance, American war on terror started in 2001 and oil price is rising since 1999 (from $10 a barrel in 1999 to around $100 a barrel in 2007) still Pakistan economy has seen unprecedented economical growth from 2001 to 2008, with booming stock market, stable currency, healthy growth rate, attractive destination for foreign investment, positive balance of payment, increasing export, and rising reserve.
Today, Pakistan that is not financially as much dependent on USA as economy of China, India and some south-east Asian countries (due to their huge trade with USA in goods and services), is worse than all of them. Pakistan with dollar reserves in Nov 07, to cover 8 months of import, more than most world countries, is the only country that within last 6 months deteriorated so much that it became basket case, and started begging rich countries for charity and knocking on the door of IMF and other world financial institutions. Pakistan that was issuing euro bonds in international market not so long ago at 5 percent interest and was attracting 8 times what they wanted (for 500 million bonds, people were willing to invest 4 billion euro), could not get loan at any interest rate and same euro bond became worthless, trading at less than half its value.
Anyone with little bit of intelligence would see the reason situation of Pakistan changed so much, and not of any other countries. Reason is obvious, that is flight of capital. Obviously, government do not hold wealth of the country but it is people who hold the wealth and invest in country. It is duty of government to keep such environment that people trust their wealth in the country under their management. If government would have people like Idiot Daar, liars like Nawaz and Ahsan Iqbal, and deceiver Zardari in government, than there should be no surprise to see what is happening in Pakistan. A country cannot trust renowned thieves, crooks, thugs, plunders, criminals and expect that world trust them and country run by them too. These thugs maybe heroes for Pakistanis who are like them and love corruption, but certainly these thugs are not heroes for world investors that they throw their hard earned money in Pakistan for these thugs and their chailay chamchay (kuttay billi) to loot them.
All those dollar reserves that was enough to cover around 8 months import (without taking into account any export receipt or other incomes), plus all those billions of other dollars at that time circulating in Pakistan open market that was keeping rupee stable, disappeared out of Pakistan without getting used for the purpose it should have got used (to stabilise rupee and cover trade deficit in dollars). Reason is that, when people saw crooks and thugs back in power, with same attitude as before, they took their money out of Pakistani economy. According to some estimate, around $70 billion left Pakistani economy (though I think that the figure is a bit exaggerated). Anyhow, only idiots would beat the bush to find silly explanations for obvious.
Those who wanted to kick Musharraf out must be crying now...and they will continue to cry because Gaddari will bankrupt Pakistan.
I think that Prince Abbas is partially right in saying that:
Though American crisis has affected countries like India and China because they are heavily dependent on American economy, American present crisis did not affect most third world countries, especially Pakistan. On the other hand, situation is not that bad for any countries what it is for Pakistan.
Actually, present Pakistani situation has nothing to do with American financial crisis or any external crisis, including oil price or 'American war on terror'. Pakistani crisis is obvious result of mismanagement by present government, their attitude in governance, and lack of confidence by people with money on this government. Last government brought growth and prosperity in the country because they earned respect and trust of investors from world over. This government has scared them away.
For instance, American war on terror started in 2001 and oil price is rising since 1999 (from $10 a barrel in 1999 to around $100 a barrel in 2007) still Pakistan economy has seen unprecedented economical growth from 2001 to 2008, with booming stock market, stable currency, healthy growth rate, attractive destination for foreign investment, positive balance of payment, increasing export, and rising reserve.
Today, Pakistan that is not financially as much dependent on USA as economy of China, India and some south-east Asian countries (due to their huge trade with USA in goods and services), is worse than all of them. Pakistan with dollar reserves in Nov 07, to cover 8 months of import, more than most world countries, is the only country that within last 6 months deteriorated so much that it became basket case, and started begging rich countries for charity and knocking on the door of IMF and other world financial institutions. Pakistan that was issuing euro bonds in international market not so long ago at 5 percent interest and was attracting 8 times what they wanted (for 500 million bonds, people were willing to invest 4 billion euro), could not get loan at any interest rate and same euro bond became worthless, trading at less than half its value.
Anyone with little bit of intelligence would see the reason situation of Pakistan changed so much, and not of any other countries. Reason is obvious, that is flight of capital. Obviously, government do not hold wealth of the country but it is people who hold the wealth and invest in country. It is duty of government to keep such environment that people trust their wealth in the country under their management. If government would have people like Idiot Daar, liars like Nawaz and Ahsan Iqbal, and deceiver Zardari in government, than there should be no surprise to see what is happening in Pakistan. A country cannot trust renowned thieves, crooks, thugs, plunders, criminals and expect that world trust them and country run by them too. These thugs maybe heroes for Pakistanis who are like them and love corruption, but certainly these thugs are not heroes for world investors that they throw their hard earned money in Pakistan for these thugs and their chailay chamchay (kuttay billi) to loot them.
All those dollar reserves that was enough to cover around 8 months import (without taking into account any export receipt or other incomes), plus all those billions of other dollars at that time circulating in Pakistan open market that was keeping rupee stable, disappeared out of Pakistan without getting used for the purpose it should have got used (to stabilise rupee and cover trade deficit in dollars). Reason is that, when people saw crooks and thugs back in power, with same attitude as before, they took their money out of Pakistani economy. According to some estimate, around $70 billion left Pakistani economy (though I think that the figure is a bit exaggerated). Anyhow, only idiots would beat the bush to find silly explanations for obvious.
I am not challenging your statistical details right now for a reason that every great liar has taken refuge in digits, one can always change the figures on papers to paint a rosy picture in the eyes of people who don’t have an aptitude, training and appropriate knowledge in the matters related to economy. From Ayub khan to Mr Musharaf’s last dictatorial era, and I am not excluding the semi democratic yet elected regimes of late Benezir and Mr. Nawaz sharif, you can browse through the statistical data published by these Govts. to find “unprecedented economic growth”, so let’s not try to impress people with your feed of statistics, let’s, on the other hand, comes to term with the real economy, both Macro and Micro.
I will be greatly obliged with your impressive feed that would speak about;
1) How economy is defined in lay man’s term, non digits gimmickry, non statistical.
2) How it trickles down to the masses? Why it didn’t not trickle down to the masses if the growth was unprecedented, in your own holy words.
3) To my average intelligence Macro economy has some thing to do with the infrastructure also, I will appreciate if you can come up with a comprehensible , non statistical information that presents some kind of evidence that could explains the same unprecedented growth in;
a) Agriculture sector,how different is today’s farmer from a framer in pre golden era of Mr. Mush, how many hectares of unused land has been brought under cultivation, and I am ready to accept statistics here, not un proven though. Irrigation is back bone of growth in agriculture sector, how many new DAMS were made, how the system of canals in Punjab was improved, and how many villages were provided with electricity and facilities like tube well systems, tractors and other tools to facilitate agriculture sector.
b) *Industrial Sector; *
How many new industrial units were introduced in Pakistan, how many sugar mills, how many cotton mills, how many steel mills, please come up with industry related to plastic, wood, and paper. How many people were employed and how the level of income was raised for an average Pakistani who lives on daily wages.
Electricity is the backbone and a life line for the economic growth of any country, please enlighten us with the impressive figures of how many power generating units, hydroelectric, thermal, nuclear, wind were put in place. Can you please come up with the short fall in capacity and usage of power during pre golden era and the golden era? If the short fall has increased does that mean that rhetoric of economic growth is only provable on the papers?
c) Communication sector;
No my friend it is not just cell phone companies that probably signed MOU’S long before Mr. Mush has conquered his country yet again, please impress us with a mesh of new highways, motor ways, coastal roads, roads from farms to market. Please don’t forget to include new bridges, new air ports, new rail road tracks. How many new and fast trains have been started, how the dying railway, and cadaverous PIA been turned into giants that represent true face of economy, how many new indigenous car, motor cycle and even cycle manufacturing industries have been put in place. We will be happy to know how many people work in these companies and why people are still committing suicide because of unemployment, please don’t say that Zardari and other crooks destroyed every thing in one week that poor Musharaf took 8 years to build, too bad, isn’t it?
d) **Small scale industrial units**;
It is generally believed that small scale industrial units represent a real trend in the growth of a country, would you oblige us that how many new units were created. What new initiatives were taken by the previous regime to introduce new small scale industrial opportunities? Why all the loom machines in Multan are stopped? And why small industrial units of Sialkot are dying?.
I have seen you using a very derogatory language about Nawaz sheriff, Benazir and all those who would oppose Mr. Mush., calling them thugs, thieves and chor. I am not saying this because I love those guys but only because I am interested to know how you define a “thug”. I would appreciate if you could elaborate meaning of “thugs” so that it evades any ambiguity in the minds of poor GS readers, and may you also explain how and why do you exclude Chaudhries of Gugrat, Maulana Fazul-ul Rehman, Sher Pao, and many other from the list of thugs. As to your beloved Mr. Mush, how is he excluded from that stigma of being a big thug?
May I ask if a thug is a person, who does some embezzlement of money, how about a person who embezzles “constitution”, who messes with human rights, what about carnage, can a killer can be effectively called a thug?. What if a person sells his own country without consulting a single soul? Is he thug or chor, or may be an angel, though a perverted one.
If we had an unprecedented economic growth, then where did it go in a few days after Mr. Mush., how could an economy melt down so quickly if the growth was sustainable because of underlying infrastructure?
You always come up with impressive foreign exchange reserves, and poor people on GS would never question the integrity of the figures, but you never explained how these reserves were achieved, were they because of;
1) Improvement in export/import imbalance, had we started exporting more than we imported during 8 years of Musharaf. If that was the case what commodities were we exporting, and how in a few days after him the stock piles of the goods vanished from the warehouses? To my humble knowledge the only thing we exported in his days was “terrorism” and the most common thing that we imported in abundance was a “bad name”.
2) If our foreign exchange reserves were not because of improved balance in
Import/export, where did the money come from, and where did it go?
Mr Sa1eem I am 100% with you if economic growth in your dictionary means, money in the name of remittances, and under the table deal to be partner in phantom wars on terror. We had a lot of money in the days of Zial-ul haq and same was the case with Mr. Mush.
If anything other than what I stated is economy in your dictionary, please do enlighten us.
Truth_Surfer: Kahtay hain kay jaab shruaat hee jhoot per hou tou agay sach kiya kahna? :). So, it is most important that to clear what I wrote was/is truth or BS to you, as if what I wrote is BS to you than obviously whatever I would write could be taken as BS by you too, hence no point wasting time in answering you. Obviously, since you think that I lied in my post or whatever data I claimed could be lie, than whatever I would write, you will discard it as lies. I know that you may have preconceived ideas of a thing and nothing may change that. Truth is no guarantee to convince anyone, as if truth could have changed things than God prophets would have had no problems and there would have been no kufr in this world.
So, before answering any of your questions … I would like to challenge your claim that all government could boasts of unprecedented growth. If that was true than present government should boast that they have no problems, country has plenty of dollar reserves, country do not need any loan, stock market is booming, there is no shortage of electricity or flour in the country, exchange rate is stable, rather rupee is getting stronger day by day, inflation is zero, people are getting free bread and honey under Zardari rule, government is giving everyone luxury house and plenty of clothing free, all Pakistani kids are getting free high quality schooling, and that Pakistan economy is growing at 10 percent a year. Don’t you think that if Pakistan government would do that, they would only going to be laugh of the world? Here is what you wrote:
From your writing it seems statistical details are lies and that all government claimed unprecedented growth. Now, if that is the case then their unprecedented growth would show in Pakistan government statistical department data too. Why don’t you look there and quote from there proving that what you wrote is true. Here is Pakistan statistical department data site with all figures during various years (note, it is not my statistical data but government of Pakistan data):
http://www.statpak.gov.pk/depts/fbs/statistics/national_accounts/table2.pdf
Anyhow, the figures I quoted in my post is not just economical data but something that everyone know or could find out easily. For instance I wrote:
What you do not agree from above?
Are you questioning American war on terror for Pakistan starting in 2001?
Rise in oil price from around $10 a barrel in 1999 to around $100 a barrel in 2007?
Are you questioning claim of unprecedented economy growth of Pakistan during Musharraf rule?
[Check Pakistan government site to see if I am lying … if you cannot than do not blame me but yourself):
http://www.statpak.gov.pk/depts/fbs/statistics/national_accounts/table2.pdf]
Booming stock market that crashed once present government came?
You can check Pakistani newspaper for each day and could find the stock market rise during the period between 1999 and 2008. Actually in one of my post I gave graph with reference of how KSE performed with respect to other world stock market between 1990 and 2008. Anyhow, here is KSE website that would tell you everything. [http://www.kse.com.pk/]
**Or is it that you want to say that Pakistani reserves did not increased to $16.5 billion in Nov 2007 from few hundred million dollars in 1999 or that now it is NOT less than $8 billion dollars? **
Why don’t you check state bank figures yourself for different years?
State Bank of Pakistan - The Central Bank
Are you questioning that Pakistan external debt did not increased between 1999 (over $40 billion) and 2007 (still only $40 billion) … (that in spite of continuous interest payment on $40 billion debt that Musharraf government inherited)?
*
Do you want to question that Pakistan internal debt, that more than quadrupled (increased over 4 times) between 1990 to 1999, only increased by around 50 percent between 1999 and 2007, but again started increasing in big jump since present government came to power?
[One can find the figures from state bank sites and many other sources)]
Or are you challenging my saying that Pakistani rupee was stable since 2001?
Why don’t you check figure with history of Pakistani rupee exchange rate since 1992 from main exchange company of Pakistan:
www.forexpk.com.pk
(Though, you can find many sources to get earlier exchange rate too).
If you are thinking that price inflation was more during Musharraf government than previous government: For that you can check Pakistan state bank site as well as government of Pakistan statistical department to find that inflation was unprecedented low during Musharraf year compare to past years.
Well, if you doubt on any figures I ever quote … please do not hesitate to ask where I got those figures or claims, instead of thinking that I took them out of my backside.*
Re: Rebuffed by China, Pakistan May Seek I.M.F. Aid.
^ Mr. Sa1eem, if you claim to have engineered these figures then my statement about the statistics and gimmickry of digits to be a tool for a liar holds ground for you also, if not then you should not be worried about yourself. I agree with you truth does not guarantee to be convincing for every one, but my friend it does filters out the intoxication from purity, benevolence from malevolence and queue all those who benefit from lies in a row that plays against the interest of innocent people. Truth being powerless in this age and time should not be a reason to not to seek it.
I asked you a few very relevant questions, and what you came up with a few links that speaks nothing but statistics. Sher Shah Suri built a few roads in Lahore, we can still see them, I can still go and visit a motel that was built by Sher shah Suri in Multan, my friend an unprecedented economical growth of Mush evaporated into the thin air in 7 days, I wonder why?
Do you really believe that what Stock exchange of Pakistan represents has anything to do with the Marco economy of Pakistan; stock exchanges of the world are big gambling stations in the hands of a few very powerful people.
I ask you just one question, where did all the foreign exchange come from, and where did it go. Talk about economy, not the digits from institutions whose CEO”S benefits form these figures.
The rise in number don’t show growth but appropriation with respect to value of Pak rupee, don’t forget about inflation. These figures will go on increasing no matter who is ruler.
Talk substance not the magic of numbers.
^ Mr. Sa1eem, if you claim to have engineered these figures then my statement about the statistics and gimmickry of digits to be a tool for a liar holds ground for you also, if not then you should not be worried about yourself. I agree with you truth does not guarantee to be convincing for every one, but my friend it does filters out the intoxication from purity, benevolence from malevolence and queue all those who benefit from lies in a row that plays against the interest of innocent people. Truth being powerless in this age and time should not be a reason to not to seek it.
I asked you a few very relevant questions, and what you came up with a few links that speaks nothing but statistics. Sher Shah Suri built a few roads in Lahore, we can still see them, I can still go and visit a motel that was built by Sher shah Suri in Multan, my friend an unprecedented economical growth of Mush evaporated into the thin air in 7 days, I wonder why?
Do you really believe that what Stock exchange of Pakistan represents has anything to do with the Marco economy of Pakistan; stock exchanges of the world are big gambling stations in the hands of a few very powerful people.
I ask you just one question, where did all the foreign exchange come from, and where did it go. Talk about economy, not the digits from institutions whose CEO”S benefits form these figures.
The rise in number don’t show growth but appropriation with respect to value of Pak rupee, don’t forget about inflation. These figures will go on increasing no matter who is ruler.
Talk substance not the magic of numbers.
I did not meant that you particularly questioned me, but you certainly questioned the figures I presented. I usually quote government official figures, and there are reasons for it. From what I know, government departments (different from politicians in government) could not intentionally lie when presenting official figures, so these figures could not be out of mark (and I have given the reason in one of my post too). These reasons are:
Thousands of people work to collect economical figures in most countries, including Pakistan. So fiddling with official statistical figures is almost impossible for any government, as every sort of people work in statistical department, State bank, Accounts department, Revenue departments, Different ministries, different local and international banks and companies working in the country, etc ... are involved in collecting figures and contributing to final government figure tabulation.
Second reason is that, actually it is these figures that are taken into account when local as well as foreign companies (multi-nationals) and investors invest in a country. Local and international banks and financial institutions plan their businesses and forecast financial shape of a country. Different countries and international financial institutions evaluate financial situation of a country, and world economical intelligence units forecast about a country's risk factors. Different world financial institutions decide their aid, grant and loan to a country using these figures and interest rate on loan to the country depends on these figures. So, wrong figures intentionally can be taken as international fraud from the country that once discovered (as that is easy to discover) would mean, country becomes untrustworthy pariah state and no country, businesses or financial institutions would trust such country.
Third and one of the most important reasons no country would fiddle with figures regardless of international repercussion is budget: Last year figures determine what a country could expect in revenue, inflation, import, export, dollar requirements, borrowing requirements, different types of food requirements, energy requirements, growth for following year, etc, etc, etc. It is these expectations for following year that decides what a country should do and what budget allocations should be made for different things. Now, if this year figures are wrong than no government could make budget for following year. There could be a percent or two margin of error in some figures, but that get corrected as soon as possible, as this error could not get accumulated.
On the other hand, there are some figures that are as good as gold. Unfortunately many even quote lies when presenting these figures, expecting that those reading are completely stupid or would not confirm them. Sometime journalists quote funny figures full of ignorance, but that are also easily detectable, as either they are due to journalists ignorance of simple arithmetic, or maybe intentional, meant for completely ignorant readers. For instance, stock market index, exchange rate, etc are known figures for anyone. Sometime journalists use lac as millions and crore as billions, showing their ignorance, and so on. Anyhow, all these fabricated figures are for those who are ignorant and believe whatever they read.
So, fabricated figures could be one that journalists may quote without reference from their imagination, but official government figures are mostly as accurate as possible. That is why I usually quote mostly government official figures, not fabricated figures of journalists. Anyhow, this weekend when I will have time, I will try to answer what you asked according to my knowledge and understanding (regardless of you accept my explanation and figures or not).
I did not meant that you particularly questioned me, but you certainly questioned the figures I presented. I usually quote government official figures, and there are reasons for it. From what I know, government departments (different from politicians in government) could not intentionally lie when presenting official figures, so these figures could not be out of mark (and I have given the reason in one of my post too). These reasons are:
Thousands of people work to collect economical figures in most countries, including Pakistan. So fiddling with official statistical figures is almost impossible for any government, as every sort of people work in statistical department, State bank, Accounts department, Revenue departments, Different ministries, different local and international banks and companies working in the country, etc ... are involved in collecting figures and contributing to final government figure tabulation.
Second reason is that, actually it is these figures that are taken into account when local as well as foreign companies (multi-nationals) and investors invest in a country. Local and international banks and financial institutions plan their businesses and forecast financial shape of a country. Different countries and international financial institutions evaluate financial situation of a country, and world economical intelligence units forecast about a country's risk factors. Different world financial institutions decide their aid, grant and loan to a country using these figures and interest rate on loan to the country depends on these figures. So, wrong figures intentionally can be taken as international fraud from the country that once discovered (as that is easy to discover) would mean, country becomes untrustworthy pariah state and no country, businesses or financial institutions would trust such country.
Third and one of the most important reasons no country would fiddle with figures regardless of international repercussion is budget: Last year figures determine what a country could expect in revenue, inflation, import, export, dollar requirements, borrowing requirements, different types of food requirements, energy requirements, growth for following year, etc, etc, etc. It is these expectations for following year that decides what a country should do and what budget allocations should be made for different things. Now, if this year figures are wrong than no government could make budget for following year. There could be a percent or two margin of error in some figures, but that get corrected as soon as possible, as this error could not get accumulated.
On the other hand, there are some figures that are as good as gold. Unfortunately many even quote lies when presenting these figures, expecting that those reading are completely stupid or would not confirm them. Sometime journalists quote funny figures full of ignorance, but that are also easily detectable, as either they are due to journalists ignorance of simple arithmetic, or maybe intentional, meant for completely ignorant readers. For instance, stock market index, exchange rate, etc are known figures for anyone. Sometime journalists use lac as millions and crore as billions, showing their ignorance, and so on. Anyhow, all these fabricated figures are for those who are ignorant and believe whatever they read.
So, fabricated figures could be one that journalists may quote without reference from their imagination, but official government figures are mostly as accurate as possible. That is why I usually quote mostly government official figures, not fabricated figures of journalists. Anyhow, this weekend when I will have time, I will try to answer what you asked according to my knowledge and understanding (regardless of you accept my explanation and figures or not).
I definitely questioned the integrity of these magical numbers that paint a flashing pink on a wall that is dull and rusty, I understand where you get your data from, however I would advise you not to stick with the “official” figures always and alone, and I am consciously saying this because I know exactly how the system works and I will explain later in my post, do some research or ask some one to get you the results from independent researchers. Unfortunately there are not many independent researches available on the internet for Pakistan, but scarcity of correct data is not that overwhelming to stop you from reaching the truth. Truth would speak for itself; it’s only that you have to show intentions to hear it.
Now let’s talk about your reasons and give you the other side of the story, fiddling with the figures is a very common crime widely practiced among third word countries and especially in those countries where blanket of democracies is thrown away in the name of corruption, looting and plundering of the resources of the countries. Pakistan is a blazing example of this kind of experience, in all those cases the first thing a dictator would need is to prove that economy is back on track, foreign exchange reserves that were being plundered before are now mounting, and foreign investment is pouring into the country like a hail storm, and at this situation figures come handy, a person who can barely write his name and can barely add 2 and 2 falls pray to the figures quickly and with the lack of check and balance, these figures look astonishingly convincing. Let’s give you some reasons why I believe that digits don’t represent real economy and how easy it is to change them;
Last census took place in Pakistan in year 1998; I was working as a trainee engineer in federal Bureau of Statistics to support their mini frame system (VAX 6000 series), this Govt. dept was working with census department accepting the data that they would provide to FBS for processing and generating a report, to cut the long story short, I as a junior trainee was able to change the population of any district, city or province. The purpose of this example is not to tell you that we fiddled with the figures but to prove that it can be easily done if some one wants to, and trust me, my friend, people do want to change the figures, let me explain why;
Resources for the figures that you have mentioned in your previous post are Govt. institutions; heads of these institutions come from either military establishment, retired or now even in service army personals, or civil establishment. The only purpose of these heads is to serve and be part of collective establishment that constitutes ruling oligarchy, and the method they employ is to defend status quo. It is rare that any head of these institutions would rub the correct figures in the eyes of generally a military dictator, or rarely a civil dictator. It is their bread and butter and the system is their protector. Said that I don’t label each and every one of them corrupt, those who try to be honest are sidelined quickly. It is now an established fact that Shaukat Aziz fiddled with the figures to present Pakistan economically strong and viable.
Your statement about the multi national companies brought a smile on my face, I wonder even today you are using it to justify your rhetoric. You already know that huge companies like Enron, Bear Stearns , Merrill lynch, Lehman Brothers are down with bankruptcy or sold over just because CEO’S of these companies did not keep up the books correctly, they hid the truth from people just to make more money in the name of bonuses for them. Do you know what speculation is and when this term entered into books of corporations and budgets of countries like Pakistan? Figures that appear in Pakistani budget are also speculated, when and where required, distorted and incorrect just to make it appealing for the people and to show a viable economy.
In a country like US where almost 90% of economy is documented, huge corporations still manage to slip in incorrect information, and my friend you talk about Pakistan where a few percent of economy is documented, all what is left is speculated and just to inform you, if you don’t know already, speculation is always used to show improvement and to hide the truth.
I don’t understand why friends of Musharaf and now friends of Zardari are so venomously oppose to independent media, why they want to shun any voice of decent, why they found lord of journalism in people like Najam Sethi, who would keep dogs as pet ,will make mockery of Islam and will twist his tail in front of his Masters. Why it is a crime to speak the language of untouchables? Why do you think that media is against the state of Pakistn, when it is only showing a picture to the Govt.
We should understand that international financial institutions that monitor viability of our financial condition has; 1) no access to do accounting on our finances, they accept fabricated figures and fabricated indicators. 2) , these institutions are more interested in the return on investment rather than analyzing the true situation, and my friend they know how to milk a cow. 3) we must also understand who is financing these institutions and on what conditions these loans granted to a poor country like Pakistan.
Finally I ask you a few more question, has these figures ever been questioned, is there a system that initiates investigation. And if for no reason I accept that we had a monumental growth of economy in the Golden period of his Excellency, where is that monument now. If we had a huge influx of foreign investments, where was that money used, where is the industry, show me even ruins of that monumental growth and I will stop arguing with you. Don’t tell me that foreign investors put their money in Pakistani Banks for higher returns, and they took away the money as soon as general left the office.
I admit we had billions of dollars, but that money did not represent economy, it was either borrowed internally or externally, or aid for our share in phantom war not to forget about the money which Mush got as bounty for innocent Pakistani being handed over to US gulags. I could have explained how this phantom war became real, had we been discussing it. Now those who were pouring money has stopped it for some time, just to punish us, and to do more and of course we are doing more, are we not killing more people than we were in good old days of Hazrat Mush?
Ok, before I stop,I must appreciate that you didn’t even try to talk around my questions, you stayed far away from them, putting all your powerful statements in a basket that proves the integrity of quoted figures, and you always quote them, don’t you my friend?
So be happy and keep writing, I may respond only if I find something that proves your point, I will be more than happy to admit that I was wrong. Over and all Mr. sa1eem.
I definitely questioned the integrity of these magical numbers that paint a flashing pink on a wall that is dull and rusty, I understand where you get your data from, however I would advise you not to stick with the “official” figures always and alone, and I am consciously saying this because I know exactly how the system works and I will explain later in my post, do some research or ask some one to get you the results from independent researchers. Unfortunately there are not many independent researches available on the internet for Pakistan, but scarcity of correct data is not that overwhelming to stop you from reaching the truth. Truth would speak for itself; it’s only that you have to show intentions to hear it.
Now let’s talk about your reasons and give you the other side of the story, fiddling with the figures is a very common crime widely practiced among third word countries and especially in those countries where blanket of democracies is thrown away in the name of corruption, looting and plundering of the resources of the countries. Pakistan is a blazing example of this kind of experience, in all those cases the first thing a dictator would need is to prove that economy is back on track, foreign exchange reserves that were being plundered before are now mounting, and foreign investment is pouring into the country like a hail storm, and at this situation figures come handy, a person who can barely write his name and can barely add 2 and 2 falls pray to the figures quickly and with the lack of check and balance, these figures look astonishingly convincing. Let’s give you some reasons why I believe that digits don’t represent real economy and how easy it is to change them;
Last census took place in Pakistan in year 1998; I was working as a trainee engineer in federal Bureau of Statistics to support their mini frame system (VAX 6000 series), this Govt. dept was working with census department accepting the data that they would provide to FBS for processing and generating a report, to cut the long story short, I as a junior trainee was able to change the population of any district, city or province. The purpose of this example is not to tell you that we fiddled with the figures but to prove that it can be easily done if some one wants to, and trust me, my friend, people do want to change the figures, let me explain why;
Nice try, but believe me, what you wrote has no substance. You are talking about independent researcher but I am 100 percent sure that either you do not know what is independent researcher, or intentionally do not want to know. From what you wrote, I am sure that you may not know what statistical figures mean, and how they are collected and collated. If you knew then you would not have talked about independent researcher.
Anyhow, what I can say is that, statistical figures of companies can be fiddled and that is called fraud, once discovered, all involved would end up in prison. In America what you referred, it never happened that figures were fiddled. What happened is that figures and true picture were not disclosed. Anyhow, I have been watching figures of various countries since long time and I never heard that figures of a country issued by their government were fiddled as it is almost impossible for a country to fiddle figures. Sometime, what happens is that a person may find no particular figures available for a particular country, but not fiddled figures, because these figures do not come from head of the government but thousands of people are involved in collecting and collating these figures. On the other hand, government only lose out if they produce fiddled figures, as figures would not stick, plus government would lose all credibility. Another thing is that, it is much easier for political government to fiddle figures than military ruler, especially in case of Pakistan, though even political government would find fiddling with figures very difficult, if not completely impossible. Here is reason;
For instance, take case of Pakistan. Let say Musharraf government decided to fiddle figure of debt. Debt figure comes from State bank and accounts department, as it is state bank that prints currency and all debt goes through state bank. State bank and accounts department may have thousands of people working with no political affiliation to anyone, could have affiliation with various political parties, as well as whistle blowers on spot (many maybe anti-Musharraf). It is they who collect and collate debt figures than pass it on to their superiors and later arrange for them to get published. These superiors not only approve the figures but pass it on to the government. Now, if superiors, who do not do collection or collation of figures, decide to get wrong figures published (for whatever reason), than there would be thousands of whistle blowers on spot, and if such would happen, then not only superior would lose job but government would get bad reputation too. So, such stupidity that figures are fiddled could not happen.
Anyhow, if actual debt is $50 billion dollars and government want to show $40 billion, they have to hide some particular debt worth $10 billion. Each individual debt amount has interest and repayment elements and during budget government has to allocate payment on fiddled debt. Now since government shown only $40 billion dollar debt, how will they get allocation to pay interest and repayment for those $10 billion dollars? Who will pay for undeclared debt? What government would do with such $10 billion dollar loan? Those who gave those loan, if they would not find those loan in official documents than why would they going to keep quite (as for them, they would start worrying about repayment)? So, it can be seen that wrong declaration is impossible.
As for independent researchers ... what is independent researchers? Actually, independent researchers are the one who do not take figures presented by other journalists or bodies but go to the source, that is figures published by government department themselves. Obviously, no person other than relevant government departments could publish figures of a country, as they are involved with those figures; have access, resources, as well as number of people working with and involved in collecting and collating figures. No one from outside, even from different government departments of same country, could collect and collate the figures of a department, as they would not have access to the figures.
For instance: Government of Pakistan has declared that they have collected Rs 144.5 billion tax in June 08. Now, suppose you are independent researcher, so think, what could you do to find out that government has collected this amount in tax or not? Obviously, you could not as you do not have access to different government tax collection departments. So, this figure is actual true figure and as independent researcher, you would quote this figure. Not figure of some idiot churning it out of their back side.
So, suppose a journalist or researcher claims that Pakistan collected Rs 100 billion tax in June 2008, (or for that matter, collected Rs 180 billion), than the journalist or researcher is lying, because true figures of tax collection can only come from FBR (Pakistan) and no journalist or researcher could find true figures of tax collection other than whatever FBR declared. So, if someone claims to be independent researcher writes that Pakistan collected Rs 100 billion in tax, than the person is not independent researcher but an idiot.
Another example: You claimed that you worked on computers belonging to Pakistan federal Bureau of Statistics department used for census data of particular district, and you could have changed the figures easily. Surely, it might be possible that what you are saying is true, though if you had changed than someone who collected those data would have recognised new changed figure and would have got it corrected. Anyhow, even if you has succeeded, as individual you may have caused a bit of error, though the effect that change to overall data would have been very little. Now think that government of Pakistan wanted to get the data changed. To do that they would have to find hundreds of people like you working in federal bureau of statistics, in various districts, to change the data making census meaningless, but that is almost impossible.
Anyhow, whatever government do, they would come up with census data that is collected and collated by thousands of people. If so-called independent researcher comes out of toilet and start claiming that Pakistan government department census data is wrong but his data that he got in toilet is correct, than that person is either misguiding whoever believes him, or idiot. Fact is that, any data that comes from backside of someone is fabricated data. However good or bad, true data is government departmental data, as they are people who have access to information that no one has. For instance, if Gup-Shup admin declare that there are 30 percent Gup-shup members who registered themselves with Gup-shup using hotmail account, than no one in their right mind could question that, as only admin of Gup-shup have access to such information.
[quote]
Resources for the figures that you have mentioned in your previous post are Govt. institutions; heads of these institutions come from either military establishment, retired or now even in service army personals, or civil establishment. The only purpose of these heads is to serve and be part of collective establishment that constitutes ruling oligarchy, and the method they employ is to defend status quo. It is rare that any head of these institutions would rub the correct figures in the eyes of generally a military dictator, or rarely a civil dictator. It is their bread and butter and the system is their protector. Said that I don’t label each and every one of them corrupt, those who try to be honest are sidelined quickly.
[/quote]
People who collect and collate data are not head of those institutions, but people much lower, so head of institutions could not change and fiddle with data. Plus, what you wrote is wrong too, as head of institutions are not all from military. Another thing is that, even if they are from military, than why you think that people in military would give wrong data? Why you think that corrupts in civil departments are more loyal to Pakistan and truthful than military? Actually, for me, I do not trust corrupts of civil department as much as people from military, because in military they are brainwashed to work for the country, but in civilian department, they are not brainwashed, and many are corrupts. I personally know many Pakistanis, who hold high positions in military, bureaucrats, as well as politics and I can say with certainly that in my experience I found most loyal and truthful amongst all of them were people from military.
Further, even if these departments fiddle with data, still it is only they who have access to data, no one else. So, no one else can publish or claim true data whatever way one see it. Anyhow, if they would fiddle, they would gain nothing out of it, as they would become unreliable everywhere and their data would become meaningless, plus country would become joke and no one would trust anything from that country, including their currency or exports, neither any country would believe such country.
Anyhow, if such fiddling would happen, than it has to be in democracy. Military ruler cannot fiddle, as military ruler do not have party loyal, and thus they rely on people already around, who could be very honest, or could be from various political parties hindering work of military ruler. Anyhow, corrupt politicians like Nawaz and Zardari could do fiddling, as when they get into power, they come with hundreds of corrupt party loyal, who become in charge of various departments. These corrupt politicians also fill corrupt party loyal at lower level of most government departments, who could do everything to fiddle figures if their boss wants to, as if they are doing kar-e-khair.
[quote]
It is now an established fact that Shaukat Aziz fiddled with the figures to present Pakistan economically strong and viable.
[/quote]
Yaar, if you would make such stupid comments, then don’t you think you expose yourself and your ability to look at things? Anyhow: Established fact? Who established that? Is it established by some dumb As*s hole sitting in Raiwand or thug journalists in Pakistani media who do not know the difference between their mouth hole with their back hole?
I have reasonable knowledge about statistics as well as economics, and I could not find any figures he ever presented was fiddled. Can you tell me with proof, what figures he represented or gave, that were wrong? Akhir mujhay bhie tou pata chalay, what you call established? :D
[quote]
Your statement about the multi national companies brought a smile on my face, I wonder even today you are using it to justify your rhetoric. You already know that huge companies like Enron, Bear Stearns , Merrill lynch, Lehman Brothers are down with bankruptcy or sold over just because CEO’S of these companies did not keep up the books correctly, they hid the truth from people just to make more money in the name of bonuses for them. Do you know what speculation is and when this term entered into books of corporations and budgets of countries like Pakistan? Figures that appear in Pakistani budget are also speculated, when and where required, distorted and incorrect just to make it appealing for the people and to show a viable economy.
In a country like US where almost 90% of economy is documented, huge corporations still manage to slip in incorrect information, and my friend you talk about Pakistan where a few percent of economy is documented, all what is left is speculated and just to inform you, if you don’t know already, speculation is always used to show improvement and to hide the truth.
[/quote]
Unlike country, multi-nationals are businesses and work for profit. Company is personal property to serve the directors, employees, and share holders. So, big multinationals could feed dubious information to the world for benefit and could go bankrupt too. As for country, whoever in power temperorily represents country, as country is not their personal property. For instance, Musharraf was President of Pakistan serving Pakistan, but whatever he was, he could not have appointed his son general in Pakistan army, chief justice, finance minister, information minister, interior minister, secretary of any department, head of state bank, player in cricket or hockey team, etc. As for a company director, they could do a lot for their son in company, as he can appoint his son at whatever level he wants. If anyone working in company does not agree with company management, they can get sacked. If any Pakistani does not agree with President or Prime Minister, they could not lose their nationality. So, do not compare multi-nationals with countries.
Saying that, fact is that many thug Pakistani politicians considers that Pakistan is their personal property, especially Nawaz and Zardari who are pathetic in this respect ... but fortunately, no military ruler has treated Pakistan as their personal property. For instance, Zia-ul-haq did not made Ijaz-ul-Haq head of ML but decided to put Nawaz as head. Same with Ayub Khan, who did not made Gauhar Ayub head of ML. As for Yahya khan, no one knows that his family is living in poverty and his son is doing very ordinary job in Pakistan (even his employer did not knew that one of his low grade employee was son of Yahya Khan, until son was exposed by Newspaper). Musharraf son did not visit China or any country as representative of Pakistan at the expense of Pakistan, rather many do not even know his name in Pakistan, and very few saw his picture, but Zardari son Bilawal visited China as Pakistan official representative at the expense of Pakistan.
On the other hand, multi-nationals do not invest in countries as charity. Whatever multi-nationals do to spread their businesses and make profits, they would never tolerate countries they do businesses fiddle with figures, as it is these figures that make multi-nationals to expand their businesses in particular country.
[quote]
I don’t understand why friends of Musharaf and now friends of Zardari are so venomously oppose to independent media, why they want to shun any voice of decent, why they found lord of journalism in people like Najam Sethi, who would keep dogs as pet ,will make mockery of Islam and will twist his tail in front of his Masters. Why it is a crime to speak the language of untouchables? Why do you think that media is against the state of Pakistn, when it is only showing a picture to the Govt.
[/quote]
I do not think that any person who supports Musharraf oppose independent media. Actually, whatever freedom of media we see in Pakistan these days, it is gift of Musharraf, else pre-Musharraf Pakistani media was worse than Chinese or Arab media. Even today, Chinese and Arab media is well controlled and not independent. Even Indian and Western media at present is not as independent as Pakistani media. For instance, when ‘Jazeera TV’ was showing news from all over the world boldly, still they always avoided any adverse news of UAE and other Arab worlds. In west, no media would dare to criticise some Government policies, or would become personal with leaders, what Pakistani media do. Anyhow, the thing that no one likes in media is ‘Jahil and bikao maal’ journalists spreading misinformation (intentionally or lack of knowledge), propaganda and lies. Reason is that, when such journalists spread lie, propaganda and misinformation, they harm the country and people.
[quote]
We should understand that international financial institutions that monitor viability of our financial condition has; 1) no access to do accounting on our finances, they accept fabricated figures and fabricated indicators. 2) , these institutions are more interested in the return on investment rather than analyzing the true situation, and my friend they know how to milk a cow. 3) we must also understand who is financing these institutions and on what conditions these loans granted to a poor country like Pakistan.
[/quote]
If Pakistani figures were fabricated than these multi-nationals would have found that out easily, as even though they do not have access to figures, if they ever get suspicious, they could easily bribe people in relevant department to know if figures quoted by government is true or not, as their billions get invested on validity of government figures. Obviously, what government claims is fabricated than multinationals would not invest, because their investment would not yield them profit, but would give them loss.
As for external dollar debt, during last 8 years Musharraf government did not increase dollar debt by even a single dollar, rather reduced dollar debt. On top of that, Musharraf government kept servicing those debts, paying around $4 billion plus during early years as interest (because thug government of Nawaz and BeNazir took some dollar loan at very high interest rate), but later, Musharraf government replaced high interest dollar debt with low interest dollar debt, hence cost of dollar debt servicing got reduced.
External debt of Pakistan was over 40 billion dollars in 1999 and it was still 40 billion dollars in Nov 2007. It was $42 billion when this government took charge in April, though now it is $47 billion. I have given reference in one of my post that Pakistan was bankrupt in 1999, and debt was over $40 billion in early 1999. Pakistan debt was $45 billion at the end of June 2008.
[quote]
Finally I ask you a few more question, has these figures ever been questioned, is there a system that initiates investigation. And if for no reason I accept that we had a monumental growth of economy in the Golden period of his Excellency, where is that monument now. If we had a huge influx of foreign investments, where was that money used, where is the industry, show me even ruins of that monumental growth and I will stop arguing with you. Don’t tell me that foreign investors put their money in Pakistani Banks for higher returns, and they took away the money as soon as general left the office.
[/quote]
There are 3 type of quoted figures related to country’s economy:
Type one: Joe, Jim and Pakistani Jahil, all can see them as they are not quoted by government but market quote them and everyone get effected from them.
[Exchange rate, stock market performance, consumptions of goods and services, spending power of people, Salary in the country, prices, etc]
Type two: These figures are available from financial market, not government, still one need a bit of intelligence, plus need to know and understand economics, figures, and sources, to understand these figures.
[Company dividends, FDI, output of goods and services, exports, increase in production of various goods, increase in production of electricity and gas, increase in use of energy, availability and increased activities in services, new infrastructure in the country, consumption of energy, etc]
Type three: Figures that needs access to data, collection of data and collation. Such data needs expensive exercise and manpower. Some of such data comes from world institutions but most come from government departments.
[Reserves, tax collection, GDP, per capita income, inflation figures, balance of payment, official export and import figures, remittances, growth rate in GDP, Growth of different activities in country (agricultural, industry, services, manufacturing), Expenditure on various sector (education, health, defence, law, debt servicing, transfer to provinces, cost of running the government, etc].
All these 3 types of data are available for Pakistan, and all these 3 data shows that Pakistan had unprecedented growth during last 8 years. Now, to me, a person has to be completely ignorant that he could not see type one data. A person does not qualify to comment if he could not see type two data. And a person is too sceptical to take part in any discussion if he could not accept type 3 data. Anyhow, situation is such that type 3 data that government issues get confirmed easily by first two types of data, and I believe that even cynical person could not hesitate to accept type 3 data when type 1 and type 2 data confirms that, unless such person is just trying to be funny or ....
[quote]
I admit we had billions of dollars, but that money did not represent economy, it was either borrowed internally or externally, or aid for our share in phantom war not to forget about the money which Mush got as bounty for innocent Pakistani being handed over to US gulags. I could have explained how this phantom war became real, had we been discussing it. Now those who were pouring money has stopped it for some time, just to punish us, and to do more and of course we are doing more, are we not killing more people than we were in good old days of Hazrat Mush?
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Investment in any country does not belong to government but people (people like you and me). All those dollars that state bank had do not belong to government, but state bank. Government do not even have unlimited source of rupee. Government only collect taxes, take loan, or raise revenue using various sources, and that is what government spends.
Now, people like you and me, whatever they might say, they do not want to throw their wealth. If they feel uneasy about something, they take their money and run. They knew that both thugs Nawaz and Zardari are high grade crooks and once in power, they would start looting and plundering, plus the person they choose as finance minister, Ishaq Daar, is world class idiot. So, many closed or sold their businesses, sold their shares and property, took money out of banks, bought whatever dollars was there in the market, and moved their money abroad. I believe that Pakistan must have lost around $70 billion in flight of capital since this government took over (especially after Ishaq Daar media briefing in April). This government has also done lot of stupidity to let the situation go out of hand. They even stopped lot of FDI that were in pipeline (probably they wanted commission and told foreign investors that no commission directly deposited in their foreign bank accounts, no right to invest). $70 billion for Pakistan is lot of money, at present exchange rate, it is more than half of Pakistan GDP (well, Pakistan GDP in 1999 was around $62 billion). If capital equal to half GDP leaves a country, than economy of any country would collapse.
One should understand the difference between corrupt political government and military government: Military ruler has no party. They chose the best to run the country on merit. They go for merit and demand results. They do not tolerate corruption, nepotism, lawlessness, mismanagement and misdeeds, as none around them are their party member. Thus we see good results. As for corrupt politicians, when they come to power, they leave merit and go for partiality. They do not demand results but money for themselves in their account and for their chailay chamchay in party. They love corruption, nepotism, lawlessness, and gunda-gardi. They bring mismanagement and misdeeds while in office.
Just imagine that when Musharraf came to power, he looked for best man he could find, and found Shaukat Aziz to sort out Pakistani finances, who successfully steered bankrupt country into most prosperous country. Now look at present government, as when they came into power, they brought an idiot, Ishaq Daar as finance minister ... a person who is one of the most corrupt, renowned Liar, mentally retard, idiot to the core, and economically illiterate. He could only get a job as fiddler in Nawaz factories of corruption, but at international level, he would not get a job in supermarket as cashier.
You have to see his ‘early April’ media briefing on TV to know how dumb this man is. Single handed he caused harm to Pakistan economy on that day, more than anyone could do. Obviously, when people saw this monkey as finance minister on TV, you cannot blame them if they ran out of Pakistan with their money. Unfortunately, since country depends on their money, today we are in shambles.
As for aid, I never heard that Pakistan got any mentionable aid during last 8 years, unless you would like to call reimbursement as aid, what it is not. One thing I could not understand that some retarded politicians like Imran Khan, Qazi and Nawaz Shareef on one had say that Pakistan was getting less in reimbursement what it was costing Pakistan than they put reverse gear and start BSh*tt*ing that Pakistan got aid :) ... If Pakistan was getting reimbursed less than what it was costing Pakistan than it means, Pakistan economy was doing much better than it is officially mentioned as it was absorbing the cost of war on terror, plus having a booming economy, and if they think that Pakistan got more than what it was costing Pakistan than they should say that openly, though they would not like to, as it means Pakistan was getting reasonably compensated with the cost. :)
As far as this war is fake or American war, than it is also BS and only stupid would say that. It could not be American war, because Pakistan is fighting this war on Pakistani soil with people who are fighting Pakistan on Pakistani soil. It is Pakistani war because those who are fighting and killing Pakistani forces are doing that from Pakistani soil, so it means they have invaded Pakistan and Pakistan is getting rid of them, or they are armed criminals and Pakistan is getting rid of them. In both case, it is Pakistani war. Pakistan also has to guard Pakistani border and should not allow any insurgency from Pakistani side to any country, so if Pakistan is fighting to have control at border, than also it is Pakistani war.
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Ok, before I stop,I must appreciate that you didn’t even try to talk around my questions, you stayed far away from them, putting all your powerful statements in a basket that proves the integrity of quoted figures, and you always quote them, don’t you my friend?
So be happy and keep writing, I may respond only if I find something that proves your point, I will be more than happy to admit that I was wrong. Over and all Mr. sa1eem.
[/quote]
Actually, I have given answers to questions similar to your questions number of time. Problem is that ... if you would say that ‘may naa maanu’ than no answer would convince you. You have already declared that you do not accept government figures. Now what you want? I employ 1000s of people and send them all over Pakistan to find development works claimed by government, take pictures of those work so that they can be reported to you and pictures would convince you. Send many investigators to government departments with plenty of money so that they can give rushwat to check data (though even that data would be dubious to you), and send thousands of people in every house of Pakistan to find out if their family income has really gone up during last 8 years or not, meanwhile design 'Time Machine' and send 1000s of people all over Pakistan back in 1999 to find prices of different goods then call them back in 2008 and send them again to different shops all over Pakistan to find present prices, then work out inflation and compare it with people’s family income to see if people are well off today or not ... and so on. ... Just to convince you.
Actually, even if a person manages to do that (impossibilities), reading your posts, I believe that even than you would not accept anything. Anyhow, for me, I prefer to accept government published data as reliable and I do not have any desire to start thinking about designing 'Time Machine', sending thousands of people doing data collection, and bribing government department to look at true data, just to convince someone who believes that people could do independent research while singing in their toilet. Anyhow, if you have any other idea of Independent research, than please let me know the modalities. :)
Last government brought growth and prosperity in the country because they earned respect and trust of investors from world over. This government has scared them away.
That's right. Investors have no confidence in the current government. The government has no plans - only sound bites and rhetoric. I guess IMF will come to rescue.
Re: Rebuffed by China, Pakistan May Seek I.M.F. Aid.
competition of who can write more paras? :D
competition of who can write more paras? :D
:)
Re: Rebuffed by China, Pakistan May Seek I.M.F. Aid.
China preparing rescue package for Pakistan
China comes thru?
We need 10 billion dollars right now to improve our economy, and avoid defaulting on the loans.
How are we going to get them? Any suggestions?
My bailout package:
-1- We should avoid getting help from IMF or if we don't it should be without any stipulation about defense cuts.
2- USA should provide 2 billion dollars aid and 2 billion soft loan (for non-military use only) and give MFN status to Pakistan and Investment in Pakistan.
2- China should provide at least 2 billion dollar of Aid (for non-military use only), and 2 billion of soft loan. China should also invest 4- 6 billion dollars in varies project to improve our economy.
China has $1.809 trillion reserve if they want they can give us us 10 billion dollars cash but they won't. They are not even giving us any aid. I am not sure why? Are they afraid that Ghaddai will steal this money? It could be trust factor or they just don't care.
3- We need atleast a 1 billion dollar aid from EU states. Germany & France should help Pakistan by giving us MFN status, invest $$$ billion dollars in varies project to improve our economy and $$$ would be nice.
4- KSA - Should provide 2 billion dollars aid, plus discount on OIL and promise to invest billion in OIL & Gas projects, and give MFN status to Pakistan
5- UAE - should provide at least 1 billion dollar aid (for non-military use only) and invest 4 billions dollars in varies project to improve our economy, and give MFN status to Pakistan.
6- We should request Russia, Turkey and Iran to give us MFN status.
China has $1.809 trillion reserve if they want they can give us us 10 billion dollars cash but they won't. They are not even giving us any aid. I am not sure why? Are they afraid that Ghaddai will steal this money? It could be trust factor or they just don't care.
When the Pakistanis themselves do not trust the current government and taking their money out of Pakistan, why should Great China trust Pakistan?
Where are the fiscal policies that will show the lenders that the current government of Pakistan has plans to take Pakistan out of the current crisis, and the lenders money will be used wisely?
Re: Rebuffed by China, Pakistan May Seek I.M.F. Aid.
Malik73 bhai, is this the same Great China whose glorified tales you used to sing to us a long time ago ;)
So, Pakistan is now back on the books of IMF. 
Will the government now come up with fiscal policies, and let the nation know their plans for taking Pakistan out of the current crisis. Or will they continue with their silence on economy, as they have done since they came to power.? :teary3:
Pak formally seeks USD 9 billion IMF emergency aid-Pakistan-World-The Times of India
Pak formally seeks USD 9 billion IMF emergency aid
ISLAMABAD: Faced with dwindling foreign exchange reserves, Pakistan has formally sought a USD 9 billion emergency assistance from the International Monetary Fund, media reported here.
The Pakistan government has already sent a formal request to the IMF for USD 9 billion package to tide over the financial crisis, Dawn News Channel said quoting finance ministry sources.
To address serious concerns over balance of payment and to repay some maturing early next year, Pakistan is seeking immediate release of USD 4 billion.
The agreement with the multilateral agency is expected to be signed on November 20.
Pakistan is expecting to get a soft with repayment after a 15-year grace period and it hopes IMF will not ask it to adopt tough conditions.
Pakistan Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani will soon convene a special meeting of his cabinet to discuss measures to address the country’s economic crisis, including the possibility of an aid package from the IMF.
Adviser to the Prime Minister on Finance, Shaukat Tareen who called on Gilani today "plan to present (a) nine-point agenda to meet the IMF conditions. These nine points include cutting government expenditure, banning imports of luxury items and bringing real estate, farm, and services under the tax net.
The of Pakistan’s forex reserves have fallen to USD 3.53 billion, less than the import bill of USD 3.81 billion for September. Reports have suggested the government could also default on repayment bonds maturing early next year.
So, Pakistan is now back on the books of IMF. ..
Better than defaulting! Isn't it?
IMF's tough love should be taken at its face value instead of declaring the whole IMF as some kind of Fir-oun.
IMF tells Pakistan to balance the books. Is it too much to ask. And why should we wait until IMF says so. Can't we do it at our own?
The biggest problem for balancing the books is to look at Pakistan's income. Our local income is dependent on taxes, and our external income comes from export of human resources and goods.
Our tax policy is a mess. IMF will never have expertise nor time to study Pakistan's every tax clause to provide their feedback. We as Pakistanis must figure out that our outdated 200 years old tax system is incompatible with the modern world.
We have a huge "self employed" workforce in the cities and rural areas who ought to declare their income on a simple 2 page form. Once we know the income, we can levy taxes and provide benefits to the deserving people.
Tax collection agency should be privatized or at least made somewhat similar to NADRA. Right now we have bunch of old style munshis with qalam dwat taking care of our national finances. This must go away.
For our external sources of income, MFN like treaties will work, but we must train our workforce to produce quality goods.
Our worker export to Middle East should be turned into army style grouping with strong Pakistani government control and proper training based on their country of destination. They should all know that their purpose is just to earn money and not get involved in international politics.
Nothing hurts us more than exporting Jihad oriented young men who are hell bent on creating 7/7 bombings.
And what's up with this looting of NATO trucks in our land? Why Jihadis are being allowed to disrupt our source of income? What is with this f-ing Khyber agency. People should be told that if you mess up with our income, we'll dynamite the whole area and ensure that no truck is looted or burned on its way. In addition to using this stick, we must give financial incentives to local tribals and civilize them in the process.
Then we must go around the world ready to offer packaged services from IT, to labor, to law enforcement.
and last but not least for crying out loud, tourism must be opened up like Dubai. And just like Dubai, no laws should be in place that can hurt our tourism industry.
.....Will the government .... let the nation know their plans for taking Pakistan out of the current crisis. ......
Government can't do squat if Pakistanis are hell bent on Islamizing every functioning aspect of society that remains operational. It is the job of people to tell the government to get rid of draconian cave age and stone age laws and join the civilized group of nations.