I think that Prince Abbas is partially right in saying that:
Though American crisis has affected countries like India and China because they are heavily dependent on American economy, American present crisis did not affect most third world countries, especially Pakistan. On the other hand, situation is not that bad for any countries what it is for Pakistan.
Actually, present Pakistani situation has nothing to do with American financial crisis or any external crisis, including oil price or 'American war on terror'. Pakistani crisis is obvious result of mismanagement by present government, their attitude in governance, and lack of confidence by people with money on this government. Last government brought growth and prosperity in the country because they earned respect and trust of investors from world over. This government has scared them away.
For instance, American war on terror started in 2001 and oil price is rising since 1999 (from $10 a barrel in 1999 to around $100 a barrel in 2007) still Pakistan economy has seen unprecedented economical growth from 2001 to 2008, with booming stock market, stable currency, healthy growth rate, attractive destination for foreign investment, positive balance of payment, increasing export, and rising reserve.
Today, Pakistan that is not financially as much dependent on USA as economy of China, India and some south-east Asian countries (due to their huge trade with USA in goods and services), is worse than all of them. Pakistan with dollar reserves in Nov 07, to cover 8 months of import, more than most world countries, is the only country that within last 6 months deteriorated so much that it became basket case, and started begging rich countries for charity and knocking on the door of IMF and other world financial institutions. Pakistan that was issuing euro bonds in international market not so long ago at 5 percent interest and was attracting 8 times what they wanted (for 500 million bonds, people were willing to invest 4 billion euro), could not get loan at any interest rate and same euro bond became worthless, trading at less than half its value.
Anyone with little bit of intelligence would see the reason situation of Pakistan changed so much, and not of any other countries. Reason is obvious, that is flight of capital. Obviously, government do not hold wealth of the country but it is people who hold the wealth and invest in country. It is duty of government to keep such environment that people trust their wealth in the country under their management. If government would have people like Idiot Daar, liars like Nawaz and Ahsan Iqbal, and deceiver Zardari in government, than there should be no surprise to see what is happening in Pakistan. A country cannot trust renowned thieves, crooks, thugs, plunders, criminals and expect that world trust them and country run by them too. These thugs maybe heroes for Pakistanis who are like them and love corruption, but certainly these thugs are not heroes for world investors that they throw their hard earned money in Pakistan for these thugs and their chailay chamchay (kuttay billi) to loot them.
All those dollar reserves that was enough to cover around 8 months import (without taking into account any export receipt or other incomes), plus all those billions of other dollars at that time circulating in Pakistan open market that was keeping rupee stable, disappeared out of Pakistan without getting used for the purpose it should have got used (to stabilise rupee and cover trade deficit in dollars). Reason is that, when people saw crooks and thugs back in power, with same attitude as before, they took their money out of Pakistani economy. According to some estimate, around $70 billion left Pakistani economy (though I think that the figure is a bit exaggerated). Anyhow, only idiots would beat the bush to find silly explanations for obvious.
I am not challenging your statistical details right now for a reason that every great liar has taken refuge in digits, one can always change the figures on papers to paint a rosy picture in the eyes of people who don’t have an aptitude, training and appropriate knowledge in the matters related to economy. From Ayub khan to Mr Musharaf’s last dictatorial era, and I am not excluding the semi democratic yet elected regimes of late Benezir and Mr. Nawaz sharif, you can browse through the statistical data published by these Govts. to find “unprecedented economic growth”, so let’s not try to impress people with your feed of statistics, let’s, on the other hand, comes to term with the real economy, both Macro and Micro.
I will be greatly obliged with your impressive feed that would speak about;
1) How economy is defined in lay man’s term, non digits gimmickry, non statistical.
2) How it trickles down to the masses? Why it didn’t not trickle down to the masses if the growth was unprecedented, in your own holy words.
3) To my average intelligence Macro economy has some thing to do with the infrastructure also, I will appreciate if you can come up with a comprehensible , non statistical information that presents some kind of evidence that could explains the same unprecedented growth in;
a) Agriculture sector,how different is today’s farmer from a framer in pre golden era of Mr. Mush, how many hectares of unused land has been brought under cultivation, and I am ready to accept statistics here, not un proven though. Irrigation is back bone of growth in agriculture sector, how many new DAMS were made, how the system of canals in Punjab was improved, and how many villages were provided with electricity and facilities like tube well systems, tractors and other tools to facilitate agriculture sector.
b) *Industrial Sector; *
How many new industrial units were introduced in Pakistan, how many sugar mills, how many cotton mills, how many steel mills, please come up with industry related to plastic, wood, and paper. How many people were employed and how the level of income was raised for an average Pakistani who lives on daily wages.
Electricity is the backbone and a life line for the economic growth of any country, please enlighten us with the impressive figures of how many power generating units, hydroelectric, thermal, nuclear, wind were put in place. Can you please come up with the short fall in capacity and usage of power during pre golden era and the golden era? If the short fall has increased does that mean that rhetoric of economic growth is only provable on the papers?
c) Communication sector;
No my friend it is not just cell phone companies that probably signed MOU’S long before Mr. Mush has conquered his country yet again, please impress us with a mesh of new highways, motor ways, coastal roads, roads from farms to market. Please don’t forget to include new bridges, new air ports, new rail road tracks. How many new and fast trains have been started, how the dying railway, and cadaverous PIA been turned into giants that represent true face of economy, how many new indigenous car, motor cycle and even cycle manufacturing industries have been put in place. We will be happy to know how many people work in these companies and why people are still committing suicide because of unemployment, please don’t say that Zardari and other crooks destroyed every thing in one week that poor Musharaf took 8 years to build, too bad, isn’t it?
d) **Small scale industrial units**;
It is generally believed that small scale industrial units represent a real trend in the growth of a country, would you oblige us that how many new units were created. What new initiatives were taken by the previous regime to introduce new small scale industrial opportunities? Why all the loom machines in Multan are stopped? And why small industrial units of Sialkot are dying?.
I have seen you using a very derogatory language about Nawaz sheriff, Benazir and all those who would oppose Mr. Mush., calling them thugs, thieves and chor. I am not saying this because I love those guys but only because I am interested to know how you define a “thug”. I would appreciate if you could elaborate meaning of “thugs” so that it evades any ambiguity in the minds of poor GS readers, and may you also explain how and why do you exclude Chaudhries of Gugrat, Maulana Fazul-ul Rehman, Sher Pao, and many other from the list of thugs. As to your beloved Mr. Mush, how is he excluded from that stigma of being a big thug?
May I ask if a thug is a person, who does some embezzlement of money, how about a person who embezzles “constitution”, who messes with human rights, what about carnage, can a killer can be effectively called a thug?. What if a person sells his own country without consulting a single soul? Is he thug or chor, or may be an angel, though a perverted one.
If we had an unprecedented economic growth, then where did it go in a few days after Mr. Mush., how could an economy melt down so quickly if the growth was sustainable because of underlying infrastructure?
You always come up with impressive foreign exchange reserves, and poor people on GS would never question the integrity of the figures, but you never explained how these reserves were achieved, were they because of;
1) Improvement in export/import imbalance, had we started exporting more than we imported during 8 years of Musharaf. If that was the case what commodities were we exporting, and how in a few days after him the stock piles of the goods vanished from the warehouses? To my humble knowledge the only thing we exported in his days was “terrorism” and the most common thing that we imported in abundance was a “bad name”.
2) If our foreign exchange reserves were not because of improved balance in
Import/export, where did the money come from, and where did it go?
Mr Sa1eem I am 100% with you if economic growth in your dictionary means, money in the name of remittances, and under the table deal to be partner in phantom wars on terror. We had a lot of money in the days of Zial-ul haq and same was the case with Mr. Mush.
If anything other than what I stated is economy in your dictionary, please do enlighten us.