[TABLE=“class: media media–stretch one-whole palm–one-whole, width: 698”]
Shahid Afridi adjusts his sunglasses during a training session in Adelaide. — AFP/File
The World Cup quarter-finals are set to begin in a week’s time and Pool B seems to have entered an interesting phase to finalise teams for the third and the fourth spots.
With India and South Africa already grabbing the first and second positions, respectively, the competition is now between the West Indies, Pakistan and Ireland to reserve a seat for the next round.
Unlike Pool A, a look at the points table in Pool B illustrates how tricky it is to pinpoint teams for the 3rd and 4th spots.
Here are different scenarios for the three teams vying for a quarter-finals spot:
Scenario 1In case of rain washing out both Pakistan vs Ireland and West Indies vs United Arab Emirates matches, Pakistan and Ireland would qualify for the QFs with more points.
Scenario 2In case only one of the matches (Pakistan vs Ireland or West Indies vs UAE) is washed out due to rain, Pakistan and Ireland would still win the race to qualify for the last eight.
Scenario 3If Pakistan beat Ireland and West Indies clinch victory over UAE, Misbah-ul-Haq’s side and the Windies would qualify for the next round on better run rate.
Scenario 4Net run rate of the teams will be the decisive factor if Ireland beat Pakistan and the West Indies beat UAE.
Currently, the Irish have poor NRR (-1.014) and their victory over Pakistan won’t make much difference either. The Windies, on the other hand, has a NRR of -0.511 and victory over UAE would just add positives to it.
For Ireland, a win is a must. But a victory has to come under the following circumstances:
Chase target set by Pakistan in as few overs as possible. (For instance, according tosportpulse.net’s report: if Pakistan bat first and score 280 in 50 overs, the Irish would have to chase down the target in less than 45 overs)
Restrict Pakistan in chasing down target set by them (For instance, if Ireland bat first and score 280 then they would have to restrict Pakistan under 250.)
Re: Race to the quarter-finals: Who will it be from Pool B?
Above assumption is wrong. As things are:
If WI beats UAE than they improve their run rate.
But if Ireland beats Pakistan than there is no ifs and buts. Ireland with 8 points would go through. Run rate would determine who would go through between WI and Pakistan (assuming WI beats UAE).
So, for scenario where Ireland beats Pakistan … and WI beats UAE:
If WI beats UAE than they would improve their run rate and Pakistan losing to Ireland would decrease their run rate.
Presently, Pak run rate is slightly better than WI, but if WI beats UAE by 80 runs then WI run rate would become better than Pakistan. It means, if WI beats UAE with enough margin to make their run rate better than Pakistan, and Pakistan loses to Ireland (even by 1 run), than WI and Ireland would qualify and Pakistan would be out.
Well, even if WI beats UAE with less margin but combined margin of WI beating UAE and Ireland beating Pakistan would be enough to make WI run rate better than Pak, than also WI and Ireland would qualify.
According to my calculation, Pak run rate is ~79 runs better than WI. That means:
WI beats UAE by X runs
Ire beats Pak by Y runs
Than (X+Y) should be less than 79 runs for WI to be out of quarter final and Pak to qualify.
My feeling is that, WI would try to beat UAE by 79 runs or more and if they would do that than they (WI) would qualify (irrespective of Pak and Ireland result).
Than struggle would be between Ireland and Pakistan to qualify irrespective of run rate (or runs margin). In this situation, if Pak beats Ireland than Pak qualifies and if Ireland beats Pak than Ireland qualifies. Simple as that.
Re: Race to the quarter-finals: Who will it be from Pool B?
WI has easy match on their hand and I am sure they will up their NRR considerably so effectively, Pakistan and Ireland really have no choice but to WIN the game to qualify
Re: Race to the quarter-finals: Who will it be from Pool B?
^^^ There is good news for Pakistan. It seems Gayle may not play match against UAE. But then, in last 5 match WI played, Gayle only made runs in one match. Rest were failures. So, lets see.
I was reading an article and someone from West Indies camp commented that 'they can beat any team on their day'.
Same I hear from many Pakistanis, that we can beat any team on our day. We just need to find right balance and A performance. These comments make me laugh :)
I believe, only losers make such comments. Every losing team can claim that if it was their day they can beat any world team and that they only need to play their best on the day. problem is that, when two teams play each other, both play their best on the day, and best team wins, simple as that. Words have no value, team have to show they can win by winning not by claiming. It is possible that good team may lose on certain bad day, but overall, their performance would reflect their worth, without ifs and buts.
What is your opinion? ... Please comment. :)
[Anyhow, I think Pakistan would win against Ireland regardless of the day, and would qualify for quarter final].
Re: Race to the quarter-finals: Who will it be from Pool B?
True !!!! Pakistan can make 500 ;) and get them out for 50? will that work? :p
Pakistan have to beat Ireland by more than 562 runs to overtake SA.
It means, If Pakistan bat first and makes 663 runs (13.26 runs per over throughout 50 overs) and Ireland in reply gets out for 100 runs than Pakistan would overtake SA in run rate.
If Ireland bats first than it would be impossible that Pakistan could make their run rate better than SA.
Re: Race to the quarter-finals: Who will it be from Pool B?
Pakistan should beat Ireland and finish 3rd in the group.
However, Pakistan most likely will face Australia in the QF and that would be THE end of our world cup imo. On paper Australia is a much better team with more quality and depth in batting. Starc is bowling well although the rest of their attack is not that menacing. Johnson surprisingly has had a poor World Cup so far. Australia do not lose many KO games and they are unlikely to make the same mistakes against us while batting as South Africa.
Unless batsmen step up I cannot see Pakistan getting past the Aussies
I know Pakistan will not be able to do it at Adelaide.
