Seems like a continuation of a bad dream, but my gut feeling is that McCain will win the general election in November.
Yes, there are still plenty of twists and turns that will come, but whats gonna happen between now and July is that both Clinton and Obama will unleash their attack dogs on each other. They will aggressively portray the other as incompetent, liar, lacking any clarity, in the pockets of lobbyists etc. All this time Republicans won’t have to dirty their fingers in trying to badmouth Democrats. At the end of it all, there will be so much dirty laundry in public domain that regardless who ever wins the Democratic ticket (or even a Joint Ticket), most swing voters will be fed up with both Obama and Clinton.
John McCain espouses some of the same failed Bush foreign policies. He is an extremely uninspiring speaker. But. And this is a significant “but”. He is a war hero. He is a maverick. And he can attract independants.
John McCain will win in November 2008. Premature prediction, may be. But thats how I see it unfolding.
I think it's too early. People want change and while McCain is more independent (and not part of the neocon looney faction that has controlled GOP, thank God), he still represents too much of the staus quo.
I think a lot will depend on the perceived security threat as the election draws near. GOP will be praying for some type of terrorist attack to help them win by fear (again).
GOP will be praying for some type of terrorist attack to help them win by fear (again).
I doubt it. My uncle (who quite rarely for a Pakistani immigrant in the US is a long-term Republican member and loyalist) says the only thing they are praying for is Hillary to win the Democratic nomination.
The Republicans are apparently confident that any Republican who runs against Hillary will win enough support from anti-Hillary independents to win comfortably - they think that Hillary is too divisive.
I think the way Obama fumbled on NAFTA issue last week, it seems that Clinton group has succeeded to damage his reputation as a change advocate, instead they portrayed him as same old fashioin politician, who says something in the public and does otherwise behind the curtain. Thats a biggest worry about him, if they managed to post only this on his face. The surge will not be same as it has been in Feb. Even if he managed to pull the nomination, McCain office will be ready with all the arrows set for right time. Specially with the relatively stable (as compare to 2006/2007) Iraq, it will be hard to convience independent that his opposition to war was wise, and McCain can use this very low point of his against Obama. Iraq war, ironically can be a benefit for Reps.
The only thing is Economy and I think Clinton is not bad in that area either. This might pull it for Dems.
I am almost sure that McCain will be next president regardless of whether it is Hillary or Obama he runs against. I say almost because you never know about hidden scandals that break out, health issue etc.
Obama certainly has his momentum, but what if race becomes an issue? Or do you think America's ready for a black President?
I'm kinda skeptical on this...as much as i'd like to see him head to D.C. as the next Commander-in-chief.....I'm not quite sure whether he'll make it. I was/am hoping it'd be hillary but that's another story...
I think this contest has moved beyond whether "America ready for a black president", or whether US will elect a woman President. Both Obama and Hillary are getting phenomenal and unprecedented number of votes during these primaries. If they lose (now or in the general election) it will likely be because of the issues and the policies they espouse, rather than their skin color or gender.
Wow, you can just coat me in brown sugar cuz I believe there is a large, intolreant section of American that isn't ready for a women president and even larger section that isn't ready for a black president. Not the majority by any means, but enough to make it a big stumbling block.
^ Do you subscribe to Bill Mahr's school of thought that America is more sexist than it is racist? Not that I believe its a majority either, but still...
Age is not on McCain's side. He is 71. Like Reagan picked Bush Sr, McCain needs to pick a VP who will reassure his voters that if McCain drops off due to age/health the VP is capable enough to take over.
The tradtional power brokers in the US have always been white men and anyone in power wants to stay in power. At least Hillary is white. I think that is more palatable to those in power.
OMG, I feel like a sugar product with a presence of molasses. I may need a bath.
You just a sweet little piece of brown sugar bun ain'tch ya now seminole, I'm gonna make some cookies with you, yes I am.
Seminoles original name was Semi-'dark chocolate'-nole
People using race against Obama is a concern but I don't find it to be an overwhelming one. We all know there is racism but I like to think that those who wouldn't vote for Obama wouldn't likely vote for a Dem anyway. This is a somewhat naive view as clearly there are racist Dems . I'm going to go back and look and see if past black candidate's have produced a lower white turnout or energize/mobilize supporters for the white candidate running against black candidates. I'll post what I find.
That said...
People are typically racists because they have these preconceptions about a group of people. Obama has 7 months to knock these preconceptions down and I'm going to venture out and guess he's going to knock almost every negative stereotype that people may have about him because he is black out of the park.