Re: PPP's show of power
Pakistan People’s Party has put up an impressive show of power at Kammo Shaheed on the Sindh-Punjab border on Saturday. It was a huge gathering by any measure and a timely warning to all its opponents that the nucleus of the fire is still intact and its voter is still not disillusioned by its 4-year of rule.
With all major political parties of all four provinces being part of its chorus, leaders of the PPP sang at the top of their voices anthom of extending their rule for another 5-year term once the present assignment is over. After 4 years of government, PPP's confidence for being on the verge of another electoral milestone is understandable. While facts and figures speak volume against the government, PPP continues to be present in all parts of the country.
Zardari, despite being a newcomer in power politics, has introduced new dimensions in our political environment and holds all the triumph cards in his hand for being the true pioneer. He has not only been successfuly navigating through the headwinds himself, he is also imparting crucial techniques to other bigwigs like Altaf Hussein, Chaudhrys and Asfandar on how to enjoy two shows in one ticket. Zardari is an institution of realpolitiking.
In last election PPP got 10.6 million votes. Out of that PPP got ~5 million votes in Punjab and ~ 3.5 million votes in Sindh. So, one can say, the largest vote banks PPP have is in Punjab.
PMLQ got ~8 million votes and out of that ~5.5 million votes were from Punjab.
PMLN got ~6.7 million votes and out of that ~5.2 million votes were from Punjab.
So, one cannot say that PPP is a weak party in Punjab.
As for effect of corruption, mismanagement and nepotism, I believe such things are meaningless in Pakistani election. Actually, many people praise such things and support party that is most corrupt hoping to benefit themselves (though that is their dream as in the end they are the main losers).
Anyhow, as things are, it is doubtful that in near future Pakistan would have a party with 50 percent NA seats and that means coalition government. To have coalition government, a party has to know how to work with others parties. Amongst parties that can get significant seats:
PMLN have no ability to make coalition. Actually, very few if any party would like to work with them, and hence their coming to power is unlikely.
PMLQ can make successful coalition and some parties might even work with them, but they have to get enough seats to get into power so that with help of coalition they can make government. Since they have seen break-up recently, their chances are little to get enough seats to make government even with coalition partners.
That leaves PPP. PPP can get significant NA seats, and since they are best capable of making coalition and most other parties would be willing to work with them, it means, there is good chance that PPP would form next government.