PPP's consolidation of power

The most important thing for the present regime is to complete their tenure and in the mean while consolidating as much power as they can, performance is not of much value. Good for them bad for us, excellent articlehttp://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2012/02/power-plays/

More is less

The government of Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani is enjoying power. This cannot be said for the people whom he governs.

**Power is what this government has been all about from the day it came into power. President Zardari is often heard talking about the strength of his government in terms of the number of high offices bagged by PPP. As he says, it is for the first time that PPP has its president, prime minister, speaker of the National Assembly, Chairman Senate. Power flows through these offices, goes the argument, and such power becomes a conduit for the accumulation of further power. The logic is linear while being circular: keep the reins of power in your hands, and use it to consolidate the power base through the use of – well – official power.

**Hence the PPP’s desperation to control the Senate. Such a control would enable them to control legislation, thereby giving the PPP the power over lawmaking. Extend the argument further, and the next obvious power is the power over the constitution. While the PPP may not be able to amend the constitution, it would have acquired the power to block any constitutional amendments. That is still a lot of power to wield in a political system welded to the naked use and abuse of official power as a means to get more power.

While all this may be great for the PPP, it is terrible for Pakistan.

Here’s why: Machiavellian politicking is as old as Nicolo Machiavelli. The principles may still hold true after all these centuries, but the times have changed.** Pursuit of naked power was an acceptable goal in itself in an era when men reigned supreme over institutions, and a king’s word was law. Losing power usually meant losing your head – literally. **But then a strange thing happened. The art of politics evolved into the science of governance. Societies – especially in the West – matured as they passed through stages like the Reformation, Renaissance and the Industrial Revolution. Through war and revolution, and bloodletting and fratricides and through a ferocious battle of ideas, Western societies began to learn lessons and frame new rules of governing themselves. National and international institutions and structures began to take shape, giving birth to material and intellectual progress.

The pursuit of naked power as an end in itself began to be frowned upon.

But here in Pakistan we seemed to have missed out on these changes. The concept of power remains a medieval one. Zardari would have felt right at home in the court of Loius XVI of France or Henry VIII of England.

The result is painfully obvious. The PPP has a whole lot of power but precious little of governance. The party will succeed in controlling the Senate, but fail in controlling a sinking economy. Zardari and Gilani have succeeded in stitching together a solid parliamentary majority, but have failed in welding together a broken bureaucratic structure. They are able to stare down the military and judiciary, but still cannot put an end to torture and killing in police lockups.**

Do they care? Is their vote bank threatened? Are you kidding?**

It’s not really hard to guess why. The PPP power players will not suddenly turn into radical ideologues. They are hard-nosed realists who know very well what happens when they are on the receiving end of other power players. They get bludgeoned because naked power is best used as a blunt-edged weapon. They have swum through a river of fire to reach where they are, and the last thing they want is to be thrown back into the fiery waves.

Good for them. Bad for us.

The entire power paradigm in Pakistan is skewed. But power players are so firmly locked into it that no one dare tinker with it for fear of being devoured by it. And perhaps the requisite pressure to do so is also not there – yet. Such pressure is normally a result of an avalanche of ideas which in turn sketch out broad parameters for a new paradigm. Put simply, you need a Rousseau or a Voltaire to prepare the ground for a French revolution.

Is the groundswell there for a new paradigm in Pakistan? Anecdotal evidence may suggest so, but such evidence is usually flimsy.** PPP is certainly not the lone player that pursues naked power. The land of ours is littered with big and little Caesars waiting to pounce on any opportunity for power play. The concept of power for public good remains a concept in Pakistan, finding mention in books and official documents. It has to take root in the public consciousness before it can translate into genuine pressure for reform.****

Political change may happen overnight, but historical transformations take time.**

*The writer hosts a primetime talk show on ARY News. He has worked as Director News of Express News and Dunya News and Editor *The News,Islamabad. He can be reached at [EMAIL=“[email protected]”][email protected] or on Twitter @fahd husain

Re: PPP's consolidation of power

^^^
Worse is that, it seems PPP might form next government too as there seems noalternative. Chances are that Pakistan would have hung parliament, and Zardariis good in making alliances. If senate election goes through in March, PPPwould have near to half senate members too, plus Senate chairman.

Zardari would be president until late 2013 and it would be him who wouldinvite someone from parliament to be prime minister and form government. Idoubt he would call anyone other than someone from PPP to form government. Withgovernment of PPP in place, they would be in best position to offer and makealliances. Hence, we can expect another 5 years of PPP looting and plunderingin Pakistan.

Re: PPP's consolidation of power

With Zardari's friends and jiyalas in top slots for most of other important institutions (even PCB), it would be very hard for a non-PPP government to function properly even if the party somehow manages to lose next elections.

Re: PPP's consolidation of power

This is a genuine concern and haunts me as well. I therefore believe that a change — thorough and massive — must emerge out of elections, instead of a mandate in bits and pieces. Zardari will not get majority nor does it need one. Split mandate will be enough to please him and actualize his next 'panj-saala mansooba'. It's scary!!!

Re: PPP's consolidation of power

^^^
Believing or wishing something does not mean that it would happen. Pakistan is divided society and whatever one wishes, I doubt if election would result in any party even getting simple majority. Votes in Pakistan are divided not on manifesto, corruption, or work done, but on other factors that is hard to change. This is especially true if election is not manipulated.

So, in Pakistani politics the leader that could form government is the one who is good in making alliances or can trade effectively with different parties. Unfortunately, however much a person show scorn towards Zardari, he knows Pakistani politics well and is master player in this respect (making alliances).

Worse is that, as President who would be controlling Senate (PPP would have almost half of senate seats after March), would be selecting interim government before election, and calling someone from parliamentarians after election who he thinks fit to form government, Zardari would have upper hand during next election as well as after next election.

Re: PPP’s consolidation of power

Luqman challenges senate elections in SC

Re: PPP's consolidation of power

As the things stand now, I see PPP performing really bad in Punjab. During the previous election there was the BB sympathy, plus PMLN and PPP were supporting each other on different constituencies. This time it will be PPP versus PMLN and PTI, as things stand now in Punjab it should be PMLN and PTI (thats the reason why both parties are targeting each other now). PPP will get seats in Punjab but not as many as the previous elections, and the impact on the remaining seats would be really negligible. In KP we will see some PTI seats, ANP, religious parties, PMLN and PPP (should be divided). Sindh will remain with PPP and MQM, with might be a few seats for PTI (in urban areas). Balochistan will remain as is, I expect some nationalist parties contesting the next elections (if they participate) they will get the seats there, JUI F is also big there. The results wont be as simplistic as the previous elections, and PPP will lose seats in Punjab, Balochistan and many KP too. So it will be interesting to see what happens!

Re: PPP's consolidation of power

If this animal becomes president again, I will leave Pakistan for good !

Re: PPP's consolidation of power

So, start preparing to leave Pakistan urgently :)

Re: PPP's consolidation of power


sigh I wish PPP had used some of its efforts in "electrical power" for the nation.

Re: PPP's consolidation of power

Look at 2008 result and think what changes you could expect in next general election. Here are National Assembly ‘2008’ election results from different provinces ... and my opinion:

Punjab (148 NA seats): 2008 election result.
PMLQ: votes 6,077,092 ..... seats 29
PMLN: votes 6,026,721 ..... seats 61
(most JI and TI votes were part of PMLN, as they were indirectly supporting PMLN)
PPP: .... votes 5,943,504 ..... seats 43
MMA: ....votes 44,281 ......... seats 0
MQM: ....votes 16,982 ......... seats 0
Others (mostly independents): ... votes 2,813,432 .... seats 14

In last election, PPP and PMLN were working together to undermine PMLQ, that can be seen from result too.

I believe, PMLN votes as well as seats would get reduced substantially.
PTI would gain votes as well as seats at the expense of PMLN.
Most likely PMLQ may lose votes but may gain seats (at the expense of PMLN and PPP).
Most likely PPP will lose votes and may lose few seats (mostly to independents). PPP would gain some seats due to PTI reducing votes of PMLN and maybe of PMLQ.

Situation of people winning as ‘Independent’ may increase (normally in such a divided situation, many winnable candidates like to contest election as independent so that they can bargain with party forming government after election).

Sindh (61 seats): 2008 election result.
PPP: ..... votes 3,598,589 .... seats 30
MQM: .... votes 2,542,993 .... seats 19
PMLQ: .votes 1.011,621 .... seats 5
PMLF: . votes 530505 ........ seats 5
NPP: ..... votes 185392 ........ seats 1
PMLN: ..votes 139,674 ....... seats 0
MMA: .... votes 65,558 ......... seats 0
ANP: ..... votes 39,071 ......... seats 0
Others: .. votes 313,312 ...... seats 0

Most likely PPP may lose votes as well as some seats.
Most likely MQM may gain votes as well as some seats.
PMLQ, PMLF and NPP may increase their votes and possible seats too (at the expense of PPP).
I doubt if any other party would gain seats in Sindh.

KPK (35 seats): 2008 election result.
PPP: ...... votes 695,631 ....... seats 9
ANP: ...... votes 609,632 ...... seats 10
PMLQ: ..votes 538,837 ....... seats 5
MMA: ......votes 485,862 ....... seats 4
(MMA was actually JUI contesting as MMA)
PMLN: ...votes 460,863 ...... seats 4
PPP(Shp): votes 140,707 ...... seats 1
MQM: ......votes 4,965 .......... seats 0
Others: ...votes 549,228 ......... seats 2

Maybe PPP and ANP both would lose votes as well as seats.
PMLQ may lose votes and possibly seats to MMA or independents.
MMA might gain seats due to JI contesting election, but that would not be substantial.
PMLN might lose votes as well as seats, possibly to PTI but could be to MMA too.
PPP (Shp) would stay same.
MQM might gain votes (as they are gaining support in Hazara), but unlikely to gain seat.

Baluchistan (14 seats): 2008 election result.
PMLQ: ..votes 317,238 ....... seats 4
PPP: .......votes 297,551 ....... seats 4
MMA: ......votes 175,840 ....... seats 2
ANP: .......votes 51,714 ......... seats 0
PMLN: ...votes 47,225 ........ seats 0
MQM: ......votes 5503 ........... seats 0
Others: ...votes 423,687 ....... seats 4

I think PPP would gain votes as well as seats in Baluchistan at the expense of PMLQ. Rest of the result would stay similar.

Islamabad (2 seats): 2008 election result.
PMLN: ...votes 106,962 ....... seats 2
PPP: ....... votes 71,211 ........ seats 0
PMLQ: ...votes 45,029 ......... seats 0
MMA: ...... votes 1257 ........... seats 0
MQM: .......votes 370 ............ seats 0
ANP: ........votes 62 .............. seats 0
Others: ....votes 15,113 ........ seats 0

Most likely PMLN would lose votes and both seats to PTI.

Re: PPP’s consolidation of power

PUNJAB:
PTI’s gain would be at the expense of both PMLN and PPP (in Punjab), for example with Javed Hashmi, Leghari’s, Qureishi’s, Tarin’s joining PTI from South Punjab PTI will get seats from PPP’s strong hold.

In Central Punjab, PPP was already not that much of a force but recent gas stoppages to Punjab’s industry will also not fare well for PPP there. PPP will have to fight against both PMLN and PTI this time. Some of the seats that they got in the previous elections was due to seat adjustments with PMLN and then a big factor was the sympathy wave due to BB’s murder, and the ouster of both PPP and PMLN from the country’s politics for 10 years.

Nothing of that sort this time around, they will have to convince people with their performance.

Saleem, read this post of Yazdi where he has given a district wise summary of the various constituencies of Punjab.

http://www.paklinks.com/gs/pakistan-affairs/539183-zardari-s-woes-pakistan-s-dismal-economy-an-angry-army-2.html#post8675193
**
BALOCHISTAN:
**As far as I am reading the situation of Balochistan, I think some nationalist parties will participate in the next elections, which will reduce PPP’s seats in the province. PPP/PMLQ got the seats during the previous elections as the nationalists boycotted them and seeing the current situation of the province they are regretting their decision.

KP:
The situation might be mixed there, but PTI will win some seats there and then we will have JI contesting the elections too. It might be a mixed plate there but some people are predicting big gains for PTI there too.

That leaves us to Sindh which no one has any doubts, it will more or the less remain similar to the previous elections.

Re: PPP’s consolidation of power

Saleem, watch this video especially after 04:21:

Re: PPP's consolidation of power

^^^ Brother, Let see Punjab politics. In Punjab, PPP has large pocket of votes that would fall to them whatever happens, as they are PPP secure votes. Then there are anti-ppp votes and floating votes. So, other than votes of winnable candidates, PPP secure votes would play a major role, especially when opponent votes are divided.

In 2008 election, anti-PPP votes were divided between PMLN and PMLQ. In this election, anti-PPP votes would be divided between PMLN, PMLQ, and PTI. So, obviously, PPP would benefit. On the other hand, in 2008 PPP contested election having understanding with PMLN. This time they would contest election in coalition with PMLQ (party that secured most votes in Punjab 2008 election). Further, PMLN performance during last 4 years governing Punjab is so bad that they would lose a lot of votes anyhow.

Thus, as the situation is at present, I believe PPP along with PMLQ could sweep Punjab polls.

Re: PPP's consolidation of power

^ we will see, how ever its my analysis that they will get much lesser seats in Punjab than before. A couple of months back I would have echoed your sentiments but a lot has changed during the past 3-6 months in Punjab.