Re: Possible Scenario?
@mAd_ScIeNtIsT: 'Global Action' does not have to be some country coming and bombing Pakistan or invading it. Pakistan is very very dependent on a number of other countries for very critical needs. You can rely on China to some level but that level is fast approaching. Nobody is interested in actually invading or bombing Pakistan since there is nothing in it for them to gain!
And the world has a lot to lose if other action is taken to destabilise Pakistan further.
In other words, as frustrating as it is for India to accept, the global community is aware that, for now at least, it is in the best interest of everyone but India to ensure that the Pakistan state remains as stable and strong as possible.
Re: Possible Scenario?
What recent event? The "secret" raid on Bin Laden? When a 40 minute gunfight and helicopter raid a kilometer away from an active military base does not draw any response at all, you can be sure that a cover up is in progress.
I can only hope so. And I do hope you are correct. But do note that it was indeed hours the special ops team stuck around for. Both official naratives have Pakistan as being caught off guard. As I've mentioned before in different threads, it's questionable for whom the Pakistani establishment wishes to appear as uninvolved. The people who excuse the suciide bombings of markets and mosques? I doubt it. It is merely faith, and nothing more, that would have us believe something other than what is apparent: the pak army is either lying and survile to a foreign power if not outright sold, or utterly useless. Niether are qualities that inspire faith in their ability to defend the nation.
Had Pakistan and America wished to keep Pakistan's role secret, then why on earth even reveal the details of Osama's whereabouts? They could have easily fabricated a 'capture' in the remote mountain areas of Pakistan (which would tow Pakistan's official line). Chalked up the actual raid as a military exercise. Blur the timeline a bit. Why would the Obama administration want the headache of anti-Pakistani sentiment in Congress?
Re: Possible Scenario?
That entirely depends on the Chinese willingness to loose strategic assets and projects within Pakistan. At this juncture: ain't gonna happpen bub.
Second, exactly what action? Dismantle the elements in the PakMil that actually are fighting terrorism? Thousands of troops dead, for what? The fact is, you Indians need to realize that Pakistan is a player in this game, as flawed as it is. India is not. So be a good boy and let the men work this out. You kids go play fantasy somewhere else.
Whether we like to admit this or not if Pakistan was not there then the area would have pacified long ago. The very reason why there is terrorism in this region is quite simply because of elements in Pakistan. If the safe havens were not there most of the fighters would have been killed or given up.
Why would the greedy generals and the ISI leaders be bothered about thousands of bottom of the hierarchy soldiers dying? They can easily be replaced.
Re: Possible Scenario?
I can only hope so. And I do hope you are correct. But do note that it was indeed hours the special ops team stuck around for. Both official naratives have Pakistan as being caught off guard. As I've mentioned before in different threads, it's questionable for whom the Pakistani establishment wishes to appear as uninvolved. The people who excuse the suciide bombings of markets and mosques? I doubt it. It is merely faith, and nothing more, that would have us believe something other than what is apparent: the pak army is either lying and survile to a foreign power if not outright sold, or utterly useless. Niether are qualities that inspire faith in their ability to defend the nation.
Had Pakistan and America wished to keep Pakistan's role secret, then why on earth even reveal the details of Osama's whereabouts? They could have easily fabricated a 'capture' in the remote mountain areas of Pakistan (which would tow Pakistan's official line). Chalked up the actual raid as a military exercise. Blur the timeline a bit. Why would the Obama administration want the headache of anti-Pakistani sentiment in Congress?
Because there were 10 survivors left who could say where it actually happened. Because Pakistani civilians witnessed Blackhawk helicopters hovering above the gunfight (one witness told the news that he knew they had to be americans, because Pakistan doesn't operate Blackhawks). Because a big chunk of blown-up Blackhawk was left at the scene. Because a house with a couple of bodies and big blood stains was left behind.....
...in other words, there was too much evidence of a major seizure to be able to even consider keeping it secret.
Re: Possible Scenario?
And the world has a lot to lose if other action is taken to destabilise Pakistan further.
In other words, as frustrating as it is for India to accept, the global community is aware that, for now at least, it is in the best interest of everyone but India to ensure that the Pakistan state remains as stable and strong as possible.
They can knock out Pakistan's nuclear capability and India will have no foes who are a match for her in the region, barring China.
I personally think the global community is beginning to think that Pakistan and elements within its Army and Intelligence services are the root cause of the problem. If this is dealt with then jihadi's will no longer have a base and the hand that feeds them will be cut.
The world is beginning to think the opposite - it is in no ones interest that Pakistan remains stable and strong if elements within the military ad intelligence are going to cause trouble.
Any split in Pakistan would result in a terrorism free Balochistan and Sindh, Khyber pakhtunkhwa will be wiped clean off militants by NATO as they will have nowhere to run. Punjab wont become a haven.
Terrorists are only there because they are supported!
Re: Possible Scenario?
Because there were 10 survivors left who could say where it actually happened. Because Pakistani civilians witnessed Blackhawk helicopters hovering above the gunfight (one witness told the news that he knew they had to be americans, because Pakistan doesn't operate Blackhawks). Because a big chunk of blown-up Blackhawk was left at the scene. Because a house with a couple of bodies and big blood stains was left behind.....
...in other words, there was too much evidence of a major seizure to be able to even consider keeping it secret.
Nothing that simply could not be covered up. The 10 or so inside the compound are not known to the general public, and there are countless ways to create deniability around anything they say. The actual events could be written off as something else. The house could have been secured. Some people would try to connect the dots, but you'll always have those who try to do such, and are dismissed as conspiracy theorists. And that's the point: deniability. The story need not be rock solid. But it does need to make Pakistan look good. Otherwise, what's the point?
It's clear that hiding Pakistan's role in the operation was not a priority. It's beyond belief that a "cover story" of impotence or incompetence would be the story of choice for the Pakistani military. The likely scenario is that the military was not consulted, and opted to stand down when the American actions were discovered. This is more or less the official line.
Re: Possible Scenario?
And the world has a lot to lose if other action is taken to destabilise Pakistan further.
In other words, as frustrating as it is for India to accept, the global community is aware that, for now at least, it is in the best interest of everyone but India to ensure that the Pakistan state remains as stable and strong as possible.
Actually the rest of the world has very little to lose if Pakistan is bombed but it is India that stands to be impacted the most if that happens due the flood of refugees that will cross the border and will have to be accommodated on humanitarian grounds. Look at what happened in East Pakistan.
India has been a staunch demander of stability in Pakistan but it is hard for Pakistanis to accept that due to egoistic reasons
Re: Possible Scenario?
It is with regretful amusement how I read people coming to conclusions on this operation based on what the Pakistani & US authorities are saying publicly. Regret because people take at almost face value what their govts say, but also the inability of people to think for themselves rationally (and without patriotic emotion) and piece together all the chain events in recent weeks together (Hint: high level US-Pakistani meetings) which albeit may not seem related but take it from someone who knows they are very much so. I repeat again it suits both sides to trot out the present version of events for their respective publics, for the truth of who played what part and to what extent may not go down so well with Pakistani public particulalrly.