Possibility of Recession?

Hangout GupShup Cafe
1

Due to Katrina, gas prices went up. A commentator on TV this morning was saying that if Rita were to hit any further refineries, then gas prices can go up to 5 dollars within the next week.

The media has been saying there could be a possible recession that follows - the gas prices are hitting hard here, and people are beginning to feel some effects of inflation.

  1. Are you feeling the effects of the gas prices going up?

  2. Are u afriad it is going to get worse?

  3. Do you think that a recession is likely in the near future?

(for US guppies)

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Re: Possibility of Recession?

I am getting a bicycle if regular gas goes over 4 dollars (from near 3 currently) any time soon.

I am also planning to start an import-export business to and from Pakistan. That is, exporting dollars and importing Sohrab Cycles. Number one Cycle.

MaiN te Sohraab ee leNdaa see :roman:

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Re: Possibility of Recession?

no recession no nothing....i aint no economist but i can tell ya that consumer confidence is skyy high...like just today instead of getting a regular bigmac meal...i went for a super-sized meal..

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Re: Possibility of Recession?

MetroCard Zindabad :p

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Re: Possibility of Recession?

Although I'm not an American guppy, but I thought I'd still answer.

[quote]
1. Are you feeling the effects of the gas prices going up?
[/quote]

Yes! The price of gas drives up the prices for everything else. Therefore, I'm definitely feeling the effects of it.

[quote]
2. Are u afriad it is going to get worse?
[/quote]

The Canadian federal government is not interested in lowering taxes on gas and it is believed that the prices are not fixed. Hence, I'm afraid it could get worse.

[quote]
3. Do you think that a recession is likely in the near future?
[/quote]

Yes, it does seem like a possibility.

Hi. This is new. Please, welcome ....
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Re: Possibility of Recession?

In Holland...its $8...

bin bulaye
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Re: Possibility of Recession?

Namaste & Salaam!

gas prices and recession do not matter to the American economy anymore. The market is so well developed that basic necessities are assured regardless.

Bye

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Re: Possibility of Recession?

But people don't live here only for basic necessities ....fun is the name of the game...recession is imminent...if some aggressive measures are not taken...

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Re: Possibility of Recession?

Namaste & Salaam!

Do we care that much if the price of a SUV goes up or down by 20% or even that of gas doubled, as it almost did? Milk has gone up by 30% or so, other food commodities gone up some....So tell me what has changed in the US because of these almost across the board increases?

Dollar slid a lot until 4 months ago, then came right back up - what changed for the people?

Jobs got outsourced ..... are there people starving because of that?

It feels like somehow we have entered a zone where events and trends that would in the past have caused unmentionable misery to lower and lower middle economic strata, no longer do so. In spite of our having encountered ALL these at once!

Add to that, Greenspan has been playing with rates and that too has had very little impact on anything. Bush has been spending money like water (and he is supposedly a conservative ha ha) and expanding govt like a leftie socialist (a triple ha ha ha on that) and still the town crier gets to all is well, truthfully!

The only things that seem to cause misery are violence caused by Katrina, Osama etc.

It seems like some powers have insulated us from economic misery. You may even apply the formula for recession (which I believe is something like 3 continuous periods of negative growth combined with something else) ....we haven't had a one of those in recent times.

Katrina and Rita IMO may cause a one period -ve but (again IMO) will actually result in a spurt in economic ativity immediately following that due to reconstruction activity.

Construction materials and labor which were about to start sliding due to home building activity saturation got a huge boost with Katrina.

Oil explorations, rig building and refinery capacity are GOING TO BE EXPANDING

Neither of these sectors are outsourcable!!!

BOOM TIME AHEAD FOLKS....FOR THE GREAT AMERICAN ECONOMY...A BOOM TIME IS AHEAD

Bye

PS: The one variable that I have not taken into account in above calculus is that of the workers of Lousiana who will not have jobs until NOLA is rebuilt - I don't know how many that is. Someone said the population of NOLA is 500K, so the workforce is may be what 125K? How much of that 125K do not work for construction or O&G? Say 65K ...that is the number that the economy has to absorb elsewhere.

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Re: Possibility of Recession?

Um…inflation is a possibility.

Americans are simply not aware of the tough lifestyle of its working class apparently :rolleyes:

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Re: Possibility of Recession?

Namaste & Salaam!

Hope you're not equating inflation and recession.

As to tough working class - yes, it is tough but it hasn't gotten tougher as you'd imply when you say "there's a recession".

Perhaps you could define what is tough and then we can explore if they're about to encounter recessionary conditions, now that you have concluded we're all non-working multi-zillionaires on easy street.

Bye

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Re: Possibility of Recession?

No, I doubt you're a multi-zillionaire. By the sounds of it, more the type of person who doesn't see that a large number of people in the US are living at or below poverty line, and those who are slightly above it are not able to afford a decent style of living.

Tough = being on food stamps, having to go to thrift stores to get clothing and furniture, having to manage things on a real tight budget, not being able to afford any luxury, etc. If you think that this class is small and insignificant, boy are you mistaken...

Inflation happens during or before recession. I'm no economist. Maybe other people here can shed light on it. I'm going by the economists who have been speaking on news channels. I assume they know more economis than people on this website.

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Re: Possibility of Recession?

Namaste & Salaam!

Let's put the satire aside for a little while shall we? afterall me, you and Gates are all still working towards our first trillion.

Food stamps & thrift stores - emotions aside, that is part of my point. People don't go without roti/kapda/shelter. And they don't have to pay for at least primary schooling. And they get bus transportation to schools.

We call nations underdeveloped or developing when these needs are not met.

Poverty is relative and very different from recession. Poverty exists even when the economy is in hyper-growth.

Bye

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Re: Possibility of Recession?

Acha, so then why aren’t you living with the basic roti, kapda, shelter? After all, those excess trillions of yours could benefit others in the world. :halo:

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Re: Possibility of Recession?

N&S!

oh boy! if you go from macro to nano with nary a flinch, I can't follow.

But rest assured, moment I finish paying my taxes, anything left over is going to help the needy - me.

Bye

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Re: Possibility of Recession?

I AM CANADIAN but I’ll make a comment though… I think the present economic condition and the budget deficit suggest that US is still under recession.

Want To See!!
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Re: Possibility of Recession?

Namaste & Salaam!

We won’t hold your nationality against you :smiley: but would you mind explaining what our “present economic condition” is and how “budget deficit suggests” we’re in recession? India has a budget deficit along with its 6+% growth!

Bye

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Re: Possibility of Recession?

I am not sure how much Katrina impacted the US economy in the long term. Sure there will be a short term shick namely in the unemployment figures, housing etc, however it is not likely to place the US in a recession.

I am more curious to see whether the Housing markets (where bubbles exist) will impact the greater US economy. Not downgrade Louisiana, but the decline in real estate in the Northeast, California can have a ripple effect. In the end, who knows?