A coin toss results into either head or tail.
So the chance of coin landing on head is 50/50. The chance of coin landing on tail is also 50/50.
Since there is no other possibility.
Probability says, if you toss coin 10 time you will get head 3 or 4 times.
Problem here is when you toss a coin, its either 100% tail or its 100% head.
Coin does not think "oh this time I have to be head because I have been tossed into tail too many times in a row.
Basically what probability is, is saying that one coin toss has relation with next one.
At its own this statement is absurd.
But some how in probability theory and practice(seriously) it works.
Really many thing you do in every day life depend on this absurdity and thing developed under this absurd idea.
so if we toss a fair coin 10 times what we will get?
Also tell how do you know the answer with out tossing it ?
Does that not imply a relation between coin tosses ?
If we toss a fair coin ten times, we can get any combination of results - all heads to all tails to everything in between - all of which are equally likely with the probability of 1/2^10.
The probability of the 7th coin toss being heads is the same (0.5), irrespective of the results of the first 6 coin tosses.
Possibility of 10 head flips is exactly the same as any particular pattern of 4,5,6 head flips, which is 1/2^10.
i.e., probability of pattern HHHHHHHHHH is the same as HHHHTTTTTT. you don’t seem to be interested in order of occurances, and only the sum of results. In that case, you get the probability distribution for each sum.
there are more patterns of coin flips that add up to 4, 5 or 6 head flips, hence the probability of 4,5,6 headflips is the sum of the probabilities of all these cases.
there are 10!/(x! * (10-x)!) ways the number of heads will add up to x. this multiplied by 1/2^1024 is the probability of the sum being x.
congratulations, you have just come up on binomial distribution. should have paid attention in 8th grade math.
for about 3 sec. bring probability out of the definition you read in grade 8, and think it in real life.
I want you to flip coin 10 time.
you will have 4-6 heads the first time.
you will have 10 heads when your great great great grand kids would be getting married.
and that is what the probability says too, pal. if you cannot take the effort or time to understand it, why call something you do not comprehend “absurd”?
Anyhow I admit fair coin flip was bad choice of an example in general case.
Lets take an other one.
Only for idea sake:
You take a glass out of body of water intending to take a level L each time.
Each time its going to be ether L +1 or L-1 or in between. And people plan things accordingly.
But any plan will fail if each time water you took out was L+1.
Since we can not see future, we use probability of out comes and plan things around it.
Same principle is used in designing highways.
Also in Shopping malls, gyms. ..Banking systems etc etc..
These kind of plans breaks in scenarios like flood when every one try to get out of city.
Now ask your self “why still all those plans work” ? There is no reason.
There is no relation.
That whole thing implies almost like there is a relation between out comes.
You Thankless *******s.
If an idea is given to you in 2 lines on GS you can not swallow it
Since this thread I read 1 and half book about same idea in best seller books.
Fooled by randomness.
Black swan.
Only that guy know who to write English
And he can expand same idea over ages and over ages of philosophies. and over many profession including trading.
