Here we are Pakistanis again doing our permutations trying to find the right sequence that can get Pakistan to qt final (as always). So I thought we should have a separate thread as each game from our pool will change the equation
So as of right now, few things are given
We want India to go on and win ALL of their game (yeah check out the irony)
We want Pakistan to win all remaining game (most secure way to get to Qtr Final)
Ireland won the game against UAE and WI win against SA and that has made equation too complex for Pakistan.
Feel free to post the paths and hurdles for Pakistan to make to Qtr Final
Even if we lose against SA (highly likely) we can still make the QFs as long as we win our other games (against Zim, UAE and Ireland) AND Zim beat Ireland..
Better not to rely on others but it is surely going to take something special to beat SA with the current set of players
bhai jan eik seedhi seedhi baat ye ke Pak has to win (almost) all of their matches first of all.
aur eik terhi baat ye ke Pak has to win with a wide margin so that their average can be boosted from rock bottom. This is really complex and can be the whole game-changer.
Time to plan for scoring 200 runs last 20 overs.. but wait, they cant even score that much in 50 overs
^ If Pakistan will all 4 games, I dont think it will come to NRR. We will have enough points on table but problem is how will we win all games specially against SA??
There is only one possibility, permutation and possibility and that is we are going home very soon. Either after first round or definitely after the qtr final.
One Gayle. Will be back. Watch out. Also yesterday I made Shenwari my trump but somehow when clicking it went to stankzai and I never noticed. So two tragedies for me.
Possibilities ... lets see how things could turn up:
If Pak wins all their remaining matches … that is, against SA, Ire, Zimb and UAE than Pakistan qualify (no if and but). If Pakistan loses 2 or more matches … than Pakistan is out, no discussion.
Discussion is only possible if Pakistan wins 3 of remaining 4 matches (losing to SA):
WI has to win against 'India or UAE' to qualify.
Now coming to Ireland and Pakistan.
Most crucial match for Pakistan would be Ire vs Zimb (7[SUP]th[/SUP] of March).
If Ireland wins against Zimb than Pakistan is most likely out of quarter final ... unless India, SA and Pakistan, all 3 wins against Ireland with big margin.
Anyhow, if Zimb wins against Ireland, than Pak vs Ire (15[SUP]th[/SUP] of March) would be most crucial match. Pakistan has to win this match to qualify for quarter final ... else ... Pakistan is gone.
So, realistic chances for Pakistan to qualify for semi-final is that, Zimb beats Ireland on 7th March and then Pakistan beats Ireland on 15th March.
Qualifying for the QFs is not that hard. If all the stronger teams beat the weaker teams, then Pakistan will make it to the QF. We want India and South Africa to beat all other teams. This will make them #1](http://www.paklinks.com/gs/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=1) and #2](http://www.paklinks.com/gs/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=2) seed in the group. We want them to beat the other teams with big margins, which will reduce the Net Run Rate of those teams. Pakistan just has to win against Zimbabwe, Ireland, and UAE. I see Pakistan, Ireland, West Indies tied at 6 points each, with NRR deciding the two teams going to QF.
The good news is that from now on, Pakistan is going to win more games than lose (win against Ire, Zim, UAE but lose to SA), which will improve Pakistan’s NRR. Both WI and Ireland are going to lose more games than win, which will reduce their NRR. This will move Pakistan up the ladder and help them qualify.
This is the most common-sense scenario. If Pakistan loses to either Ireland, Zimbabwe, or UAE then they do not deserve to be in QF anyway.
^^^ You are right, anything is possible. Anyhow, Pakistan is 260 runs behind Ireland and 360 runs behind WI. We don't know, how many of those 360 would get neutralized today, as SA 409 runs is a big target.
Pakistan and Ireland also have to play SA, and SA in this mood, they can make teams pay a lot making havoc to the run rate. Ireland and WI also have to play India with strong batting line up. If WI and Ire lose against India than that could reduce their run rate too.
If Pak would win against Zimb, UAE and Ire, no one can say what is going to be runs (or over) margin. Problem is that, as things are, Ire, Zimb and UAE seems capable of making 300 runs, even chase 300 runs, but Pakistan is finding difficulty in even reaching 250.
Pakistan batting is so weak that Pakistan is continuously compromising their bowling strength, adding extra batsman at expense of bowler, and still Pakistan is finding difficulty to reach 250. With compromised bowling line up, it is easy for other teams to make big score against Pakistan.
So, let see what is to come. Things would become much clearer by 8th of March to know that 15th March Ire vs Pak game could bring Pakistan in for quarter final or not.
If WI gets all out for 50 runs against SA than Pak and WI run rate would become same. In that case, Pakistan would qualify for sure (unless WI beats India as well as UAE) ... obviosly, for Pak to qualify, Pak have to beat Ire, Zimb and UAE.
Ifs and Buts… 
unfortunately thats so true … now i wana cry
