With an avalanche of polls coming out everyday on who is going to win the election and who is leading by what margin in the swing states etc… it is often difficult to slice through the news to get an idea on whats going to happen.
Almost all the polls are very close, and most differences are within the margin of error and a statistical tie. In this hooplah, it was interesting to watch the interview of Zagby by Jon Stewart last night. Zagby owns an independant polling firm and his polls are widely quoted.
Jon asked him outright, who does Zagby think will win on Nov 2. Zagby made a very interesting comment. First he replied that “Kerry is gonna win”. When Jon expressed surprise on such a definite answer when all the polls are so close, Zagby replied by saying “Bush will get 48% of the vote, that all the polls claim he will get. But when this close to the election, the incumbant fails to go over 50%, chances are that the undecided will break towards Kerry. People know exactly what they like and don’t like about Bush and all they are doing is making up their mind about Kerry… this always works against the incumbant”.
the most amazing thing from Zogby’s interview was that Jon Stewart asked how many people have to be telephoned to yield a 1,300 person sample - (i have been amazed this issue is not brought up more often - Stewart really is on the ball with his questions sometimes.) - Zogby said that it takes 10,000 phone calls to yield 1,300 participants - approximately 60 percent of the 10,000 are not home or do not answer the telephone (perhaps because of answering machine screening or called ID) - Of the remaining 40 percent only about a third agree to answer the poll questions.
So the question is this… How well does this 13 percent of the population represent the voting population? with turnout likely to be high - i would not be surprised if Kerry won by 5 percentage points or more in the popular vote.
One huge problem with poll taking these days. Many people, and I know a few, have done away with fixed phones in their homes and use only cell phones. Most of these "cell-only" people are not included in a lot of the polls, as their phone numbers are too fluid, and not readily researched. Do these people vote? Who knows, but the tried and true polling mechanisms are much less reliable this year....
Possible it telecast earlier. I DVR all his shows and watch them at irregular times. This one I watched last night. Not sure.
Anyway, yeah that 10,000 figure was interesting. I heard FoxNews talking about it as well (last night! :D) and they had a Rep pollster and a Dem pollster and asked them if it takes 60,000 calls to get a sample of 1,000 and the Rep lady said no, it takes less than that, but considerably more than the final number.
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*Originally posted by Ohioguy: *
One huge problem with poll taking these days. Many people, and I know a few, have done away with fixed phones in their homes and use only cell phones. Most of these "cell-only" people are not included in a lot of the polls, as their phone numbers are too fluid, and not readily researched. Do these people vote? Who knows, but the tried and true polling mechanisms are much less reliable this year....
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but previous polls at some point in time did notinclude ppl who did not have phones at their homes. I mean not everybody has always had a phone correct :)
Re: Poll, polls and more polls.... Zagby on Stewart
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*Originally posted by Faisal: *
With an avalanche of polls coming out everyday on who is going to win the election and who is leading by what margin in the swing states etc... it is often difficult to slice through the news to get an idea on whats going to happen.
Almost all the polls are very close, and most differences are within the margin of error and a statistical tie. In this hooplah, it was interesting to watch the interview of Zagby by Jon Stewart last night. Zagby owns an independant polling firm and his polls are widely quoted.
Jon asked him outright, who does Zagby think will win on Nov 2. Zagby made a very interesting comment. First he replied that "Kerry is gonna win". When Jon expressed surprise on such a definite answer when all the polls are so close, Zagby replied by saying "Bush will get 48% of the vote, that all the polls claim he will get. But when this close to the election, the incumbant fails to go over 50%, chances are that the undecided will break towards Kerry. People know exactly what they like and don't like about Bush and all they are doing is making up their mind about Kerry... this always works against the incumbant".
Any thoughts.
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Damn ,I was eating out last night in SF and missed Jon Stewart.
Re: Re: Poll, polls and more polls.... Zagby on Stewart
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*Originally posted by fair_&_balance: *
Damn ,I was eating out last night in SF and missed Jon Stewart.
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Saari umarr khaabay hi khaatay rehna! :p
Waisay, yesterday's show was excellent, atleast the first 15 minutes of it, where Stewart used the 'Explosives' issue and literally Bush ki pant hi uttaar di on national television. Not to mention, it was hilarious, as usual.
Re: Re: Re: Poll, polls and more polls.... Zagby on Stewart
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*Originally posted by Faisal: *
Saari umarr khaabay hi khaatay rehna! :p
Waisay, yesterday's show was excellent, atleast the first 15 minutes of it, where Stewart used the 'Explosives' issue and literally Bush ki pant hi uttaar di on national television. Not to mention, it was hilarious, as usual.
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I live to Eat. :D
Shalimar Zindabad !!!
Hopefully I can catch it on repeat telecast at 7 PM tonight
Didnt this Incumbant disadvantage rule failed in last election. Al Gore was incumbant then and the week before election he was trailing 4-5 points but on election day he got more popular vote. Why didnt undicided split in favour of Bush then.
