It is clear that the only way PML(Q) can win is by rigging.
Politics of electioneering
As the electioneering gets into top gear, a general election designed to be contested on local bodies’ pattern is turning into a hotly fought political contest. The two mainstream leaders, Ms Benazir Bhutto and Mian Nawaz Sharif, have infused political life into an otherwise rigged process. In political terms, Election 2008 is getting closer to the elections of 1988. Of course, with its own distinctions: instead of one, two popular opposition leaders are on a massive mobilisation campaign. Unlike 1988, when the transition to civilian rule was completed prior to the general elections, transition to civilian rule this time is not yet completed, with a general turning into a civilian president along with the king’s party being openly backed by sections of the establishment. **This time the electoral process remains shrouded by serious complaints of pre-poll rigging; and the election may not result in a smooth transition; it may produce a greater political conflict. What is the politics of electioneering? **
**Political pundits and electioneering-engineers are once again being proved wrong with the induction of just one political catalyst: the election campaign being so effectively run by the two popular leaders. The campaigns run by Mr Sharif in Punjab and Ms Bhutto in Sindh have shown the following significant features:
a) People in their dozens of thousand have thronged the rallies of these two leaders.
b) The kind of public anger against the Muharraf regime seen in these public meetings is rare since 1988.
c) The focus of the campaign has been on the issues of restoration of democracy, revival of the Constitution, independence of the judiciary, freedom of the media and sovereignty of parliament. If Ms Bhutto has been emphasising the urgency of the restoration of democracy to fight extremism and alleviate poverty, Mr Sharif has been blasting the regime for the Nov 3 authoritarian coup and in favour of the restoration of the non-PCO-II judiciary.
d) Interestingly, the king’s party, or the PML-Q, has been conspicuous by its absence from the political campaign at the national level as a counterweight to the PPP or the PML-N, except at the local level. In Punjab it is being reduced to No. 3 in most districts and remains No. 2 in Sindh, with no connection whatsoever with its chapter in the other province. **
As Mr Sharif enters Sindh and Ms Bhutto starts her campaign in Punjab, it is yet to be seen how the second-leg of their campaign will affect the electoral chemistry.** If the kind of massive reception Ms Bhutto got at her first public meeting in Rahimyar Khan in Punjab is any indicator, if the phenomenon is not confined to the Sariaki belt, the tables are going to be turned in Punjab, too which was being superficially seen as the bastion of the Chaudhrys of Gujrat. What is yet to be seen is how far the major political waves being generated by the PPP and PML-N in Punjab will reinforce each other. In many constituencies, the PPP and the PML-N are emerging as the main contenders, especially in central Punjab, and in the Sariaki belt or southern Punjab the PML-Q still remains the major contender against the PPP with the PML-N spoiling the chances of PML-Q. One can feel an anti-Musharraf wave emerging in urban Punjab and a pro-PPP wave in rural Punjab. **
The three-way contest in most constituencies of Punjab is going to the greater advantage of the PPP. **Roughly speaking, if the PML-N will dominate urban Punjab, the PPP will emerge stronger in rural Punjab. **And both the parties are likely to dominate the electoral scene in the majority province. Percentages are very difficult to work out at this stage. A clear picture may emerge after the completion of the election campaign. The PML-Q banked too much on so-called strong candidates and is relying totally on the local feudal/biradri combinations which are marked by treachery and internecine conflicts. If seen from the grassroots level, the PML-Q is relying on the support of the local governments, local administrations and the police. Its advertisement campaign theme of “voting for performance” is having an adverse impact on its candidates and the negative effects of incumbency are looming large on their fate.
In fact, as this writer has seen from close quarters, every candidate of the PML-Q is running his campaign on individual basis, regardless of combinations devised by the party. On the other hand, the weakness of PPP and PML-N candidates is being overcome by the political campaign. What is quite disturbing is that, despite the change of guards, the intelligence agencies are openly trying to influence influential people to support the PML-Q candidates. For example, Colonel Haroon from the ISI is active on the side of PML-Q candidates in Bahawalpur division and openly supporting the PML-Q candidate on NA-189. General Kiyani must take a serious note of it. Moreover, the PPP/PML-N adjustments on 30 plus seats in Punjab can help rout the PML-Q, including its top stalwarts. The JUI’s alliance with the PML-N, the incumbency factor in the NWFP and Balochistan, division within the JUI and boycott of the Jamaat-i-Islami is making it extremely difficult for the remnants of the MMA to repeat their 2002 performance even by half. The PPP, PML-N and ANP are going to win a majority in the NWFP. One doesn’t have a clear sense of the situation in Balochistan after the boycott by the nationalist parties.
Although there are three major parties in the run, so far only Ms Bhutto is emerging as the most prospective candidate for premiership after the nomination papers of both the Sharifs were rejected and Pervaiz Ilahi chose to remain a provincial leader. What is quite significant is that religious extremists have been completely isolated, leaving the centre stage to the centre-left PPP and centre-right PML-N which have revived the Charter of Democracy in their party manifestos. So far, both main opposition leaders have not got into any public conflict and are focusing their tirades against the PML-Q. How far people will come out on Jan 8 will decide the destiny of the next parliament. The issue now is of fair elections, an independent judiciary and a free media. If the elections are rigged and the media is not freed, then one can only forecast a very bleak and confrontationist phase soon after the elections.
To make the elections credible, the new military establishment under General Kiyani must take solid measures to rein in the intelligence agencies from spoiling the image of the armed forces. Instead of the police and temporary recruits being assigned to the job, the army must be deployed to keep peace, the local governments must be suspended and the local administration must be put under the direct control of district sessions judges and all curbs on the electronic media regarding live coverage of the elections must be lifted. The choice is, may be the last, of President Musharraf. Only he can save the transition from being derailed, if he is prepared to take a back seat in the Presidency. The question, however, is why should the new COAS carry the burden of yet another rigged election?