I was wondering what the meteorologists in Pakistan say about the causes of these disastrous floods. I couldn’t find any news item on causes. But I did find out that Pakistan’s meteorological department had predicted light monsoon this year.
The only thing met deptt can do is to copy forecasts from others, and then read them ditto.
Another example of pathetic state of our institutions. I really doubt the competence of officials in every institution.** Every place has similar levels of incompetence, mismanagement, and ill-planning**.
I like Gilani’s initiative. One of the few instances where the government is asking the right questions.
ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani has taken notice of the meteorological department’s poor performance, which has led to the prevailing disaster in the country.
A senior official told The Express Tribune that PM Gilani has sought an explanation from the director-general of the meteorological department, Qamar Zaman Chaudhry, over his department’s performance.
He said that authorities responsible to avert any disaster-like situation informed the PM that* the meteorological department had forecast light monsoons this year*. “Gilani has not only sought an explanation but also directed Chaudhry for helpful and effective forecast advisory in the days to come,” he added. “We can’t see hundreds of thousands people losing their homes only because of poor forecast,” he quoted Prime Minister as saying in a meeting.
The official said the DG Met office had claimed on June 28 during a briefing at the Prime Minister’s Secretariat that the upcoming monsoons will be normal and there won’t be any heavy rains. “Monsoons will only fill our water reservoirs and no floods are expected,” he quoted Chaudhry as saying.
The official said that on the same occasion the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) chairman, General (retired) Farooq Ahmed also claimed that all preparations had been made to avert any eventuality, though no floods had been forecast by the Met office.
Interior Minister Rehman Malik also told The Express Tribune that* the prime minister wants to upgrade the Met office to increase its efficiency*.
“Factual forecast helps us to prepare all relevant authorities to cope with any emerging untoward situation,” he said.
Published in The Express Tribune, August 1st, 2010.
Re: Pak’s worst floods: Met Deptt’s wrong forecast
Their website did predict in June “FEW” very high rainfall events, but in north-east area instead of north-west.
And overall they say monsoon is going to be NORMAL.
Meteorological data suggests that on all Pakistan basis the monsoon rains during Jul-Sep (2010) in most parts of the country are likely to be NORMAL (+10%)
Due to the interactions of westerly-easterly waves,** few very heavy rainfall events would also occur over north-east Pakistan **that may cause urban/flash flooding during Jul-Sep.
Re: Pak’s worst floods: Met Deptt’s wrong forecast
“Few” heavy rainfall events can result in “some” flash flooding. But what we saw was record breaking floods … not just some flash flooding. There is no special warning to prepare for the worst. It caught everyone off guard.
Now people need help but official response is very poor.
“The government unfortunately seems to be mostly helpless,” said Talat Masood, a retired Pakistani army general. “I’m very concerned that the militant organizations will be jumping in.”
Provincial officials in the northwest say these floods have been the worst to hit the area since at least the 1920s, and they concede they have few resources with which to help victims.
The army, too, has said it had not anticipated such a widespread disaster.
…
“I haven’t even seen a police officer, or a local or provincial representative to at least console us,” said Sagheer Khan, a 45-year-old businessman from the inundated village of Nowshera Kalan. “If any government representative is seen now, he will be pelted with stones.”
Re: Pak's worst floods: Met Deptt's wrong forecast
Pak met office has been far more reliable than other sources. I have been personally following their predictions over the last 25 years and more or less they have come almost close to actual situation.
In November 1993, there was a cyclone in the Arabian Sea. BBC, CNN and others were saying that was going to hit Karachi but our met office denied them. And eventually the cyclone passed just south of Karachi bringing only drizzling and medium winds.
Last year here in the UK, the met office gave a forecast of a "barbecue summer" which was proved otherwise by nature and people were here very much angry.
Re: Pak's worst floods: Met Deptt's wrong forecast
hmm. Now I am not sure. Met office did predict some floods but not the intensity of it. But they might say that intensity could not be predicted.
Only some expert can tell if Met office is to be blamed or not.
The first post I had was only government's version. I hope to find the version from met office itself. Let's see what is their take on it.