FROM DAWN.COM (beata version)01-09-2008
Only you can make a judgement here!!!
PAKISTAN
Machiavelli in Pakistan
Tariq Amin
**As political developments rapidly unfold in Pakistan, it appears that Mr Zardari will now become Mr President. Is this just an existential irony of history or Pakistan’s phenomenal misfortune?
The answer lies in whether one regarded the post-Feb 18 period as a promise for change or a repeat of the same old thing. To an observer from afar, it is now clear that the poor huddled masses of Pakistan — in giving the PPP a narrow majority to form a government at the centre — also desired political accommodation and a new era of legal and social justice. But this hope for change has been dashed. **
The Pakistani president
On who should be the president, the media and a host of people in Pakistan have made very thoughtful comments.
The consensus is for someone who is a bridge-builder, a visionary and whose character is beyond reproach. But it seems that these words of wisdom have fallen on deaf ears and all sides have thrown caution to the wind for their short-term gains.
The irony is that the MQM, the party most vociferous about feudalism’s elimination, wants a feudal lord to lead the country! And not to be outdone with a mere proposal, the party’s stalwarts went one further and trotted off to the Sindh High Court to file Zardari’s nomination papers.
Killing hope, in the Pakistani context, is about the mind-numbing dexterity displayed by Mr Zardari to turn this narrow win around — and effectively to achieve absolute majority through cold social engineering moves in order to have a choke-hold on institutional power. He is sitting in the driver’s seat and will soon control the president’s office, while his party occupies the offices of the prime minister and the speaker of the National Assembly and controls the justice system.
But, not content with this kind of absolutism, Zardari and his henchmen (and one henchwoman) have been playing all kinds of games to block the reinstatement of deposed Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry in order to ensure once more that a docile and timid judiciary will quietly acquiesce to the will of the mighty feudal lord. The current moves to expand the high court benches and eventually the Supreme Court are all efforts to dilute the powers of the chief justice, should his restoration ever come to pass.
In reaching this pinnacle of absolutism, some could argue that Zardari out-manoeuvred Nawaz Sharif and displayed the skills of a shrewd politician, granted that politics is about expediency. But elementary decency is not usually jettisoned for the instrumental rationality of that brief gain thereby justifying the means to obtain it. Pakistan’s convulsive state, its precariousness, required that political leaders tread the path ever more carefully. This was not to be, and now the country is going to be polarised by the very real likelihood of a Zardari presidency.
Considering the ease with which one coalition was disbanded and another formed, it is becoming obvious that in Zardari’s mind Nawaz Sharif was expendable in favour of the MQM and the ANP, which also has quietly conducted itself as the PPP’s B-team. In the unfolding of these developments, Sharif has no one other than himself to blame for his lackadaisical dealings with Zardari.
Beyond Sharif, political leaders of the PPP and other parties — in short the political elite — appear asleep at the switch as the country bleeds, burns and ordinary people are made destitute, their lives wrecked by the painful squeeze of runaway inflation, lack of electricity and clean drinking water. This is not to mention the displacement of about half a million people from Bajaur and the war zone that the Sarhad has become.
It is painful to see that the PPP, its roti, kapra aur makan slogan notwithstanding, has been callously unreflective about continuing the neoliberal economic policies — of privatisation, deregulation and the eager embrace of the market — of the Musharraf era. The current rulers have even accepted the impositions of the IMF without a whimper, as subsidies were removed and electricity rates skyrocketed. Amid 16-hour blackouts, the government thoughtlessly announced another price hike for the residents of Karachi.
The private owners of KESC, without making much new investment, benefit from the people’s misery as the latter wallow in the sweltering heat and get crushed under the burden of price hikes. Privatisation of the KESC really has made a bad situation much worse. Other relatively stable organisations, such as the Oil and Gas Development Corporation, are also said to be on the privatisation anvil.
Pakistan’s late romance with neoliberalism, especially the push towards privatisation, comes as a surprise, and at a huge cost of widening the wealth divide. Indeed, the surprise is compounded by the lack of resistance or challenge to this neoliberal turn, despite the enormous dislocations.
Latin American states which took the lead in the 1970s with their marketisation policies, and later rushed towards privatisation and deregulation, are now much more sanguine about past policies. As Venezuela leads the charge against neoliberalism, countries from Argentina and Ecuador to Uruguay are turning their backs on this corrosive policy. But, official Pakistani economists in contrast, see privatisation as a godsend tap to obtain foreign exchange on the cheap. They are in for a shock and need to wake up and smell their neoliberal brew.
Returning to the very real possibility of a Zardari presidency, information is coming fast and loose about our feudal lord. One is about the Swiss prosecutor who has withdrawn money laundering charges and has released the frozen $60m apparently back to Zardari. Then, there is another about the cosy relationship that the PPP leader has had with Zalmay Khalilzad, America’s UN ambassador who has been called on the carpet by none other than Richard Boucher, Washington’s point man for Pakistan.
The third piece is about Mr Zardari’s mental health issues. This is an area about which one has to be sensitive and non-judgmental. However, the would-be president needs to come clean not just about his mental and physical health, but also about how he amassed this enormous fortune, why he was charged with money-laundering, and the nature of his relationship with US officials.
Given these circumstances and the challenges that lie ahead, Pakistan will be well-served if Zardari withdraws his nomination in favour of an individual who is less partisan. I hope he takes heed.
The writer teaches politics at Ryerson University in Toronto.
and
[EMAIL=“rajujamil@JEEVAY”]JEEVAY** JEEVAY PAKISTAN**
Date: Sat, 30 Aug 2008 09:20:12 -0400
From: Shaheryar Azhar
To: [EMAIL=“sazhar@com”]sazhar@com
Subject: The Accidental Presidency by Cyril Almeida, Dawn
Excerpt: ‘…Nawaz has proved that his is an oppositional mindset. Politics of principles suits those in opposition; principled is nothing more than a proxy for inflexible, which isn’t conducive to getting anything done in a fractious polity. And first Musharraf, then the judges — if Nawaz got his way, he would see no reason to stop making demands. So a recalcitrant — principled — Nawaz made it inevitable for Asif to move on…In fact, if a divorce was inevitable, then this is the most amicable way to go about it. A principled, wounded Nawaz will return to his Punjab fort; a pragmatic, powerful Asif will be the puppet master in Islamabad. Which is another reason for Asif to preside over an unamended constitution — the jiyala governor in Punjab will keep a watchful eye on the N-league government, Article 112(2)(b), the provincial equivalent of 58(2)(b), at his disposal…And those wringing their hands, worrying about nurturing a democratic system? This is the system. A durable democratic system will only emerge from the tumult of politics.’
The Accidental Presidency
Wednesday, 27 Aug, 2008 | 11:46 PKT
By Cyril Almeida **
** 1
COMING soon to a television near you: President Zardari. You could almost hear the gasps and cries and shrieks across the country when Raza Rabbani made the announcement.
From playboy to first husband to public enemy to regent to president — Asif’s journey confounds even those who thought they had seen it all.
** Asif’s plan
Politics, meanwhile, will return to the tumult and trauma of bazaar bargaining. It will become more and more difficult to separate the villains from the heroes. Was this Asif’s plan all along?
The friends of the friend of friends were certainly whooping in delight. And why not? This was the moment they dared not dream of: Zardari as king of Pakistan. The friends of Pakistan, meanwhile, were shaking their heads in disbelief. Eight months ago, Asif was in political purgatory and the marital doghouse and the only largesse he had to dole out were expensive meals in Manhattan. Fast forward to Defence Day and Asif will be crowned king. Many will be wondering who will defend Pakistan from Asif and co.
For Asif-haters, President Zardari will be the final flourish in the case against the man they believe has orchestrated every bitter, bloody step to the top. Over in whatever they are calling the Army House these days, Musharraf must have enjoyed a quiet chuckle. And the chuckle would have only grown louder as Asif and Nawaz went their separate ways. Told them they’d be begging me to come back, he must be thinking.
But what does it all mean, President Zardari presiding over a coalition sans Nawaz? For one, it’s goodbye to the judges’ restoration — via a constitutional amendment or any other device. If the judges want their robes and gavels back, they will have to obediently get in line and take a fresh oath. Asif has refused to budge from his constitutional amendment route to restoration. But Naek’s weighty package also cuts the presidency down to size. Asif may be many things, but he isn’t a masochist — he will never preside over his own political emasculation. So amending the constitution is off, destined to die a death by committee.
That does leave Asif the option of the Nawaz formula of bringing back CJ Iftikhar & co via a parliamentary resolution. But why should he? It will only give Nawaz a famous victory, which is hardly the parting present Asif will have in mind. And it will bring back CJ Iftikhar, who is straining at the leash, desperate to resume his crusade to fix Pakistan and become the people’s hero. Forget the NRO and Musharraf’s indemnity, Asif would be mad to have CJ Iftikhar stomping around his fragile kingdom. So there will be no more CJ Iftikhar — who will become a cautionary tale of the perils of the self-appointed messiah.
Politics, meanwhile, will return to the tumult and trauma of bazaar bargaining. It will become more and more difficult to separate the villains from the heroes. Was this Asif’s plan all along? No. He really did want the N-league back in the cabinet, if only to cop some of the abuse that will be hurled at his government. Steering a transition to democracy requires dealing with dark forces, which will force unpopular choices. If the electoral battles for the forseeable future will be between the N-league and the PPP, what better way for Asif to ensure his rivals don’t get an undue advantage than by tarring them with the brush of collective responsibility?
But Nawaz has proved that his is an oppositional mindset. Politics of principles suits those in opposition; principled is nothing more than a proxy for inflexible, which isn’t conducive to getting anything done in a fractious polity. And first Musharraf, then the judges — if Nawaz got his way, he would see no reason to stop making demands. So a recalcitrant — principled — Nawaz made it inevitable for Asif to move on.
In fact, if a divorce was inevitable, then this is the most amicable way to go about it. A principled, wounded Nawaz will return to his Punjab fort; a pragmatic, powerful Asif will be the puppet master in Islamabad. Which is another reason for Asif to preside over an unamended constitution — the jiyala governor in Punjab will keep a watchful eye on the N-league government, Article 112(2)(b), the provincial equivalent of 58(2)(b), at his disposal.
And those wringing their hands, worrying about nurturing a democratic system? This is the system. A durable democratic system will only emerge from the tumult of politics. And when politicians back down. The era of post-politics — reconciliation and working together — was a stopgap, a break from politics to engineer a transition to democracy. If it worked, well and good. But it was always unnatural politics — emphasising responsible governance at the expense of responsible opposition.
At one level, the failure of democracy in Pakistan is simple to understand: it isn’t a failure to get the politicians to agree, but a failure to prevent them from fighting bitterly when they don’t agree. The system — democracy — will benefit if Asif and Nawaz figure out how to fight but not cripple each other. Throwing rocks at each other from their respective camps is fine, as long as neither storms the other’s ramparts.
There is a possibility of this working. As the principled figure in opposition, Nawaz will wrest some compromises from Asif. He has to, for the fewer levers of power Asif has his hands on the more comfortable it will be in opposition.
And it is certaintly a more natural arrangement: the largest national party leading a coalition of like-minded liberal parties; the second largest national party sitting in opposition. Nawaz and Asif as adversaries should not automatically fill us with dread for they occupy very different parts of the political spectrum. What should fill us with dread is the possibility that they will refuse to draw certain red lines.
For now Nawaz is less of a worry. His politics of no compromise is clear but he’s on the wrong side of the powers that be and needs to consolidate Fortress Punjab. The real X factor is Asif. Can anyone honestly claim they know what the man stands for? Away from party positions and the rhetoric he peddles, who is Asif the politician? Is he a tactician or strategician? When he surveys the Pakistani political landscape does he see opportunities or threats? Is consolidation of power the means or the end? And perhaps most importantly, and intangibly, does Asif accept the main caveat of democracy — that democracy will necessarily leave everyone in the system, including himself, a little unhappy? On the answers to these questions hinges the future. Stay tuned to that television near you.**
[EMAIL=“[email protected]”][email protected]
