How come India is so silent on the crisis in Pakistan?
Pakistan Turmoil Draws Muted Concern in India
By Emily Wax
Washington Post Foreign Service
Saturday, January 19, 2008; Page A18
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/18/AR2008011803368.html
NEW DELHI, Jan. 18 – They have almost always been mentioned in the same breath: India and Pakistan. For decades, the two countries have been inextricably tied in politics and in war.
But analysts say that Pakistan’s recent crisis has showcased the changing strategic focus in the region.
As Pakistan’s nuclear-armed neighbor, India is closely monitoring the political upheaval consuming its arch rival. The developments in Pakistan have implications for peace talks in the disputed Himalayan territory of Kashmir, and have raised fears that extremists could spill over the border.
Analysts say, however, that India is not nearly as worried by the crisis as it might have been in the past. With a fast-growing economy, India is the world’s largest democracy and sees itself as an emerging superpower. Its new obsession is China, with which it has a hugely important trading relationship.
“India is concerned about Pakistan, but not alarmed. The two countries have been completely de-hyphenated,” said K. Santhanam, a defense expert in New Delhi. “There are many other things that are happening in India. Kashmir’s violence has gone down. India’s priority is economic now. The dynamic has really changed.”
In recent days, newspaper coverage in India has been dominated by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to Beijing; Pakistan’s elections next month have received scant mention. After the assassination of former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto last month, India’s stock market sank and train service to Pakistan was suspended out of security concerns. But the market bounced back in a matter of hours, and trains were in service again within days.
India and Pakistan have fought three wars with each other, and their arms race set off international alarm in the late 1990s. In 2001, they reached the brink of war over an attack on the Indian Parliament that was blamed on Pakistan-backed militants.
“But it’s all about China now,” said Vir Sanghvi, a popular columnist with the Hindustan Times. “After Bhutto was killed, the Indian government didn’t mobilize troops or do anything dramatic. The reaction was tempered and thoughtful. These days India only worries about Pakistan if there is a cricket match or a terrorist attack. That’s the new reality.”
Another exception perhaps is Kashmir. As Pakistan’s internal problems unfold, the fate of the picturesque Muslim-majority region remains unclear, with thousands of families still divided by a cease-fire line and nearly half a million Indian troops dispatched around schools, apple orchards and gardens. About a dozen groups have waged an on-again, off-again war in Indian-controlled Kashmir.
Early last year, experts said, there were hopes that India and Pakistan would hash out guidelines for a troop withdrawal from the region.
“Now, once again, the prevailing situation in Pakistan has caused the dialogue process to suffer,” Ghulam Nabi Azad, the chief minister in Indian-administered Kashmir, said after Pakistan declared emergency rule in the fall. “Pakistan’s cooperation was very crucial for lasting peace in the region.”
Singh has been outspoken about solving the Kashmir problem. But he has said that he wants India to move on and focus on building the economy and helping the poor. About 70 percent of India’s 1.2 billion people are impoverished.
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Since the bloody partition in 1947, ill will between the countries has been part of the social fabric in each. Ordinary Pakistanis and Indians take pleasure in taking digs at one another, comparing whose roads are better, whose cricket team is better and so on.
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The arms race between the countries, meanwhile, has subsided. Some analysts say that while the security of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is a concern, the United States, which now has warm relations with both India and Pakistan, has taken the lead in helping to contain any threat. “That issue is no longer India’s,” said Santhanam, the defense expert.
Still, despite the changing strategic relationships in the region, Indian political analysts acknowledge that Pakistan will always cast its shadow on India, and could ultimately impede the region’s development.
“Maybe India will pretend it doesn’t care. But if Pakistan descends into anarchy and no one controls the violence, it’s not good news in the long run because ultimately it destabilizes any growth in South Asia,” said Ramachandra Guha, a historian and expert on India-Pakistan relations. “If there is fire in your neighbor’s house, it’s never good news. And India’s neighbor is indeed on fire.”