Pakistan then (pre 2008 election) and now (post 2008 election).

Society Pakistan & World Affairs
1

Pakistan is near to election and we can look back on what Pakistan achieved or lost during last 5 years of PPP rule. We can compare the situation what it was when this present government took over and what present government of political thugs gave to the country.

Himalaya thinks that post-2008 election period is better compared to pre-2008 election period. To open his eyes and eyes of many who think the same, I am opening this thread with some information to compare. [All information I am putting down are verifiable].

Purpose of this thread is also to let people know where Pakistan stands in various parameters. Thus, I would appreciate all who can give their inputs to the thread, as I would not like to flood the thread with comparative information. I believe all information is available on various websites and in the knowledge of everyone who lived both periods. In my view, people who try to portray that present period of political thugs is better or even as good as what it was during military rule of Musharraf, they are just showing dishonesty.

Stock Market: Karachi Stock Market was at its peak in April-May 2008 (It was around 16000). Rot started in May 2008 just after Thug politicians came to power and Ishaq Idiot gave confidence-eroding speech on media full of lies (that took away all confidence of market on Political leadership that came into power).

One can understand the rot by looking at NIT (National Investment Trust) share price as it has in their book wide range of shares from KSE and thus NIT price is linked to KSE. NIT was trading at ~Rs 67 ($1.1) per unit in April 2008 and today it is trading at ~Rs 31 ($0.33) per unit (~47 percent of what it was in 2008 … or ~30 percent in dollars what it was in 2008).

Pakistani Rupee: Same with Pakistani rupee, that was still holding on to ~Rs 60 to a dollar until rot started in May 2008 (after Ishaq Idiot’s confidence-eroding press speech). Most important is that, Pakistan rupee in open market was ~60 per dollar in 1999 and it stayed within that level throughout Musharraf period (for 8 years). Unfortunately, rupee devaluation is such that today it is Rs 95 to a dollar (devalued ~60 percent in last 4 years with respect to its value in early 2008).

As for Pakistani institutions: Most of them were making profit until 2008. That includes Pakistan Railways, PIA, Pakistan Steel, etc. Today, almost all (exception being OGDCL) are running in loss.

Power generation: Pakistan was not facing power supply shortage in 2008 neither facing shortage today. There was very little or no load shedding until 2008. Problem is paying Power generation companies to make them generate power according to need. Unfortunately, after all corruption, present government cannot find enough money to pay them, hence no generation of power resulting in excessive load-shedding today.

As for Inflation (price increases): I believe all (including you) know when prices started increasing in Pakistan (… hmm, well it was just after politicians came to power in 2008). I have ‘average prices’ of many essential items for each year since 1990-91 (tabulated by State bank of Pakistan and published by Pakistan finance department). If you want to know how prices rose over the years in Pakistan for essential items, I can give you average prices of some essential items and you can check yourself to confirm that rot started once political thugs came to power. As for inflation, here are the figures.

F-Year: Inflation rate (%):
**
1990-91: 12.66**
**1991-92: 10.58 **
**1992-93: 9.83 **
**1993-94: 11.27 **
**1994-95: 13.02 **
**1995-96: 10.79 **
**1996-97: 11.80 **
**1997-98: 7.81 **
**1998-99: 5.74 **

**1999-00: 3.58 **… (8 months under Musharraf)
**2000-01: 4.41 **
**2001-02: 3.54 **
**2002-03: 3.10 **
**2003-04: 4.57 **
**2004-05: 9.28 **
**2005-06: 7.92 **
2006-07: 7.77

**2007-08: 12.00 **… (4 months under interim government and 4 month under political thugs)
**2008-09: 20.77 **
**2009-10: 11.73 **
**2010-11: 13.92
****2011-12: 11.50

GDP growth: Result of economical progress is in country’s GDP growth. Let us compare Pakistan’s pre-election GDP growth rate with post-election GDP growth:

**
Pakistan GDP growth rate (%) since 2003-04

GDP growth rate:
**2003-04: 7.5 **
**2004-05: 9.0 **
**2005-06: 5.8 **
2006-07: 6.8

**2007-08: 3.7 **
(4 months under interim government and 4 month under political thugs)
**2008-09: 1.7 **
**2009-10: 3.1 **
**2010-11: 3.0 **
**2011-12: 3.7 **

GDP growth consists of growth in 2 sectors. They are Commodity producing sector and Services. Commodity producing sector consists of two sectors. They are Agriculture related and Industry related. I am putting down growth in each sector of economy.

GDP growth rate in Commodity producing sector:
(Agriculture and Industry): A + B (as given below)

**2003-04: 9.3 **
**2004-05: 9.5 **
**2005-06: 5.5 **
2006-07: 6.6

**2007-08: 1.3 **
(4 months under interim government and 4 month under political thugs)
**2008-09: 1.8 **
**2009-10: 3.6 **
**2010-11: 1.5 **
**2011-12: 3.3 **

A: GDP growth rate Agriculture:
(Agriculture crops, life-stock, fishing and forestry)

2003-04: 2.4
2004-05: 6.5
2005-06: 6.3
2006-07: 4.1

2007-08: 1.0
(4 months under interim government and 4 month under political thugs)
2008-09: 4.0
2009-10: 0.6
2010-11: 1.4
2011-12: 3.1

B: GDP growth rate Industry:
(Mining and Quarrying, Manufacturing, construction, Electricity and gas distribution)

2003-04: 16.3
2004-05: 12.1
2005-06: 4.1
2006-07: 8.8

2007-08: 1.4
(4 months under interim government and 4 month under political thugs)
2008-09: -0.1
2009-10: 6.1
2010-11: 0.7
2011-12: 3.4

GDP growth rate (Service sector):
(Transport, storage and communication, Wholesale and retail trade, Finance and insurance, ownership of dwellings, Public admin and defence, social services)

**2003-04: 5.8 **
**2004-05: 8.5 **
**2005-06: 6.5 **
2006-07: 7.0

2007-08: 6.0
(4 months under interim government and 4 month under political thugs)
**2008-09: 1.7 **
**2009-10: 2.6 **
**2010-11: 4.4 **
**2011-12: 4.0 **

2

Re: Pakistan then (pre 2008 election) and now (post 2008 election).

Include also few stupid generals SC with those political thugs. They all together did a great job to put Pakistan into black hole just coz of there ins individual interests.

3

Re: Pakistan then (pre 2008 election) and now (post 2008 election).

To be fair, this government did inherit global financial crises with everything going haywire.

This would always be the case with democracy. You need to let it function. People would eventually vote in the best people. If you wrap up the system every 5 years and keep fiddling with it, would it ever mature?

Keep pointing out specific things this government did so that people make better choices next time around. We'll see improvements after a few rounds of uninterrupted democratic process.

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Re: Pakistan then (pre 2008 election) and now (post 2008 election).

^^^ global financial crises?

During Musharraf period, Pakistan had highest GDP growth rate in south Asia. Now, let us compare GDP growth rate of south asian countries since 2008-09.

Comparative GDP growth rate (%). Lowest marked in red.

2008-09: **
*India: .............. 6.6 *
**Bangladesh: ... 5.9
Sri-Lanka: ...... 3.5
Pakistan: ........ 1.7

2009-10: **
*India: .............. 10.6 *
**Bangladesh: ... 6.4
Sri-Lanka: ...... 8.0
Pakistan: ........ 3.1

2010-11: **
*India: .............. 7.2 *
**Bangladesh: ... 6.1
Sri-Lanka: ...... 8.2
Pakistan: ........ 3.0

2011-12: **
**India: ............. 6.9
Bangladesh: ... 5.9
Sri-Lanka: ...... 7.5
**Pakistan: ........ 3.7

***During each and every FY after 2008 election, Pakistan GDP growth rate was less than half of the lowest GDP growth rate of any south Asian economy *(except in 2011-12 when Pakistan GDP growth rate was better than half of Bangladesh and Indian GDP growth rate).

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Re: Pakistan then (pre 2008 election) and now (post 2008 election).

there is no doubt about musharraf that he did a great job ...ths democracy is the worst dictatorship . i blieve democracy can only be successful if the litracy rate is atleast 70% otherwise we gonna get the same jali degree rulers..

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Re: Pakistan then (pre 2008 election) and now (post 2008 election).

That's really grim situation for our country!

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Re: Pakistan then (pre 2008 election) and now (post 2008 election).

So, we can clearly see that Mush's policies were not long term. We can only go that far with telecom and banking sectors. If it was because of the new government, the GDP growth would go down slowly. A sudden decline to 1.7 percent cannot be solely attributed to newly incumbent government. There is no hiding the fact that USA and company support their puppet dictators in developing countries. If Musharraf had convicted and prosecuted corrupt politicians, I'd be with you. He created PML(Q) and issued NRO instead. Sorry, but that is as criminal as politicians' crimes.

I am not saying that this government has not fault. There has been massive corruption. Just saying that we must let the democratic process run through its course and wait the tough period out.

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Re: Pakistan then (pre 2008 election) and now (post 2008 election).

so what you are saying is we can only be better if america support us?? isnt that pathetic??. secondly what do you mean by long term.. i think one decade is long enough to prove . now if this govrnment is corrupt than how can be somethng longterm ..you need to nalyse musharraf's int relationship with europ and also with arab countries thats all that matters .. how much aid was he getting ?? i dont understand how people can deny the facts.

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Re: Pakistan then (pre 2008 election) and now (post 2008 election).

5 years is not one decade. Let there be a few elections and we'll see things improving. Democracy in India has just started to mature after 6 decades. It takes time. If military focused on its job from the beginning, we won't have having so much trouble that we have now.

If army takes over on the pretext of corrupt politicians, I would support it if they really did something to curb corruption. We saw NRO instead. The way they come in, stifle all democratic processes and then gift us the same leaders when they leave is never going to help.

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Re: Pakistan then (pre 2008 election) and now (post 2008 election).

You need to think deeper than temporary fixes. Pakistan is a multi-ethnic diverse nation that needs institutions for its long term survival w/o which it will unravel (you can only use religious nationalism for so long). So, short term economic gains or GPD growth may look impressive on paper, but long term survival of the nation depends on having strong institutions that can take hits from all sides, and withstand the pressure. And only democracy can provide that.

Btw, its much easier to make decisions when it is one man rule who happens to wear many different hats, than having a messy democratic system where you have to develop consensus to get things done.

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Re: Pakistan then (pre 2008 election) and now (post 2008 election).

What you wrote above, is it political dishonesty, ignorance of how the economy of a country works, or blatant lie?

Economy of a country is not like health of a person. It needs good management and especially ‘trust of the investors’ all the time. One bad year (or even moment) and economy can go from boom to bust, though it take couple of years good management and hard work to make a country’s economical growth from low to high. Reason is that, economy depends on ‘trust and confidence’ of investors.

Just like trust and confidence can erode in few minutes (as happened in 2008 after press conference of ‘Ishaq Dar the Idiot’), economy goes from boom to bust. As trust and confidence takes time to develop, so does the economy, takes time to develop.

For instance, after Ishaq the Idiot’s speech, more than $50 billion left Pakistan (could be much higher figure). Fleeing of such amount could damage any economy, especially economy that was worth around $170 billion (as was economy of Pakistan). It is just like effect on American economy if ~$5000 billion flee from USA. Obviously, such fleeing of American wealth could tank American economy too within no time.

It is obvious that Musharraf good governance was helping Pakistan economy grow as investors started trusting him and his governance, but when he is replaced by political thugs, trust of investors on Pakistan also eroded, ~$50 billion fled out of economy. Mismanagement, corruption, nepotism, etc ... added to misery. Result is complete economy breakdown.

Aid to Pakistan comes mostly in form of loans. As for American aid to Pakistan, it was much lower during Musharraf period (pre-election period) than it was during political thugs’ period (Post-election period). That is showing in Pakistan external debt increasing astronomically after election.

For instance, Pakistan external debt that was ~$40 billion in 2008 is today ~$60 billion.

Again, let us see how Pakistan external debt moved over the years.

1990: ~$18 billion

1999: ~$40 billion (when Musharraf took over)

2008: ~40 billion (when political thugs took over)

2012: ~60 billion.

[American aid through IMF loan alone was more than total amount what Pakistan got from USA during Musharraf entire period (~$10 billion). On top of that, Americans gave Zardari government (after Musharraf resignation) aids in various forms, that amount to again more than $10 billion.]

Note: Pakistan external debt was $40 billion in 1999. One should understand that those $40 billion loan would have more than doubled if Pakistan was not taking any loan and also not paying interest on loan taken before 1999. What happened is that, Pakistan kept paying interest on those loans, repaid some of those expensive loans and took some loans too, though end result was that, loan stayed below what it was in 1999 and at the same time Pakistan was getting richer (means loan was becoming manageable). One should realise that total interest paid on loans taken before 1999 was itself more than $30 billion between 1999 and 2008.

Result: Pakistan external debt to GDP ratio decreased from ~60 percent (in 1999) to ~25 percent in 2008. Today, external debt to GDP increased from 25 percent to ~30 percent.

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Re: Pakistan then (pre 2008 election) and now (post 2008 election).

Sa1eem bhai, I am not disputing that economy was better in Mush time than now. And I am not disputing the reasons: bad governance and corruption (in addition to what's been happening globally).

It doesn't mean military rule is always better. I am just saying that it takes a few cycles of elections for democracy to mature. Unfortunately, we haven't have those in Pakistan. The same 'policial thugs' return after a few years of dictatorship and benefit from our short term memory.

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Re: Pakistan then (pre 2008 election) and now (post 2008 election).

^^^
Brother, you are right about what you wrote above. Anyhow, there are some circumstantial problems (as Shamraz Khan mentioned), that is, Pakistan is a multi-ethnic diverse nation.

According to Shamraz, he thinks to keep Pakistan united Pakistan needs developed institutions (political government being one of those institutions too). Unfortunately, I believe differently. I believe, for Pakistan to stay united, Pakistan needs high economical growth, development of infrastructure and economical stability (at any cost). A multi-ethnic country with plenty of diversity needs something to stay together.

Reason for my views are that, in ethnic diverse country, most want to part from ‘Whole’ not because of their colour, creed, or culture, but because of economical reasons. They think that if they govern themselves independent of others, they would be financially better off.

Discriminations and suppressions of different ethnicity within country happens because people do not have enough opportunities or find difficulty in getting reasonably paid jobs or good education. So, they do discrimination and nepotism that deprives people in minority or those with no resources. Even corruption and tribalism is linked to lack of opportunity, poverty and deprivation.

Employed people with reasonable salary look for stability and do not like trouble. Actually, one can say that an employed and well paid person is satisfied person in circumstance and environment the person is living.

High economical growth means plenty of jobs and opportunities for all. Agriculture, Industry, Services, businesses, education, health-care, etc ... all develops with growth in economy, and that means, little reason for people to fight with each other for crumbs. It also means unified Pakistan.

Thus, I do not care who rules the country rather I believe that whoever rules the country should give the country high economical growth that in return would give plenty of opportunities in every way (jobs, education, etc). Once country would become reasonably developed, reasonably educated and well fed with reasonable standard of living (for all), luxury of democracy could come.

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Re: Pakistan then (pre 2008 election) and now (post 2008 election).

Pakistan Total external debt and liabilities ($) since 2003-04

Total external debt and liabilities ($):
2003-04: $ 35.3 billion **
**2004-05: $ 35.8 billion
*2005-06: $ 37.6 billion *
*2006-07: $ 40.5 billion *

2007-08: $ 46.2 billion **
**(4 months under interim government and 4 month under political thugs)
*2008-09: $ 52.3 billion *
*2009-10: $ 55.9 billion *
*2010-11: $ 60.1 billion *
*2011-12: $ 60.3 billion (9 months up to 3rd quarter or until end of March 2012) *

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Re: Pakistan then (pre 2008 election) and now (post 2008 election).

I agree that democracy particularly under PPP governments has been a disaster for Pakistan. However military rule is not a solution as after the initial phase the military dictators join hands with these same corrupt politicians in order to stay in power. Initially the intentions are good but all military rule ends in disaster as they don't want to let go of power after having tasted it. We have a independent media and independent judiciary now, so we should let democracy evolve now, let these politicians fix their own problems.

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Re: Pakistan then (pre 2008 election) and now (post 2008 election).

^agreed, democracy is the way to go. Two, three peaceful change of powers and things will start improving.

17

Re: Pakistan then (pre 2008 election) and now (post 2008 election).

There is no doubt that Pakistan has suffered tremendously since 2008 elections. But to cure ailments of democracy, you need more democracy.

18

Re: Pakistan then (pre 2008 election) and now (post 2008 election).

As some wise person once said “democracy is the best revenge”. :hypo:

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Re: Pakistan then (pre 2008 election) and now (post 2008 election).

I would like to mention something more about GDP growth rate, as the effects of such growth is hidden in another figure, figure of GDP growth rate per capita. This figure takes into account population growth. It shows how population benefitted from GDP growth rate. For understanding, I am putting down an example.

A country with population of 1000 has GDP of Rs 10000000 (Rs 10 million). That means, per capita income of each individual is Rs 10000 a year (10000000 divided by 1000). If GDP growth is 10 percent and population growth is 2 percent then new GDP would be Rs 11000000 but population would be 1020. That means, per capita income would increase by only Rs 784, or 7.84 percent not 10 percent (that would have been Rs 10,000).

Pakistan population is growing at ~2 percent a year. Taking that figure and calculating GDP growth per capita we get:

Pakistan GDP growth rate per capita since 2003-04:

GDP growth rate per capita: **
*2003-04: 5.4 *
*2004-05: 6.9 *
*2005-06: 3.7 *
**2006-07: 4.7

2007-08: 1.7 **
**(4 months under interim government and 4 month under political thugs)
*2008-09: -0.3 *
*2009-10: 1.0 *
*2010-11: 1.0 *
*2011-12: 1.7 *

Above figure shows that in 2008-09 Pakistanis real GDP per capita declined and in most years starting from FY 2007-08, it was extremely low. Overall average per capita growth rate was less than 0.45 percent a year ... or 2.3 percent over 5 years.

In comparison, GDP per capita growth before 'election 2008' was on average healthy 5.2 percent a year ... or 22.4 percent increase over 4 years. Average GDP per capita growth of 5.2 percent a year (spread over 4 years) is considered quite high and very few countries achieves that.

Note: As some people, especially rich and influential, manage to get their real income increase whatever the situation, low increase in real GDP per capita means most people in lower income group becoming worse off over the year than seeing any improvement in life. For country like Pakistan, a GDP growth of around 4 percent (Per capita growth of ~ 2 percent) is a necessity to see no decrease in income of poor (people in low income group).

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Re: Pakistan then (pre 2008 election) and now (post 2008 election).

Why only Pakistan progresses much more in 'army governments' and not 'civilian governments'? Because army never pulls its fingers out of civilian government's behinds thats why they are not fully functional/operational. Otherwise army-men are also human being involved in corruption of all kinds.