ISLAMABAD: Recognising the realities on the ground leading to fast changing events inside Afghanistan, with no one having a clue to what might happen subsequently after Nato withdraws next year, Pakistan is focusing on how to ‘secure’ its own territory, as it does not rule out a ‘civil war’ once again. It appears to be ready to face a blowback this time around. It is for this reason that it realises that it is imperative to focus on a ‘contingency plan’ and avoid a situation where its own fragile internal security receives a further jolt from its western borders.
“It is difficult to understand and uncertainties surround us —— but if nothing moves we are heading towards a civil war (inside Afghanistan) which we want to avoid. Specially, if all reconciliation efforts do not succeed then there is likelihood of civil war. Then there will be a spillover into Pakistan and this will create its own problems, especially from the Pakistan Taliban”, said diplomatic sources in a meeting with the media here. It is for this reason, said one of them, that this contingency plan has to ensure a scenario, which ensures that Pakistan’s own territory is well protected.As prices of property keep rising in areas outside Peshawar in anticipation of what comes next from across the Durrand Line, at this point the diplomat said the government could not contemplate the number of Afghan refugees that could flow in if there is a civil war.
However, there appeared some room for optimism, the diplomat said even though the Afghan Taliban have closed their Qatar office temporarily to protest demands that they remove a sign which said that the Qatar office was that of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. “This could just be a ‘tactical’ move by the Afghan Taliban to get noticed. The situation was mishandled in Qatar. However, talks can still be held in places other than the Qatar office, and also talks with the Northern Alliance can be held separately”, added the diplomat. Another ‘tactical’ move that Pakistan points out is when out of sheer frustration with Hamid Karzai, Obama has threatened considering speeding up the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, ensuring that there would be none left after 2014.
Refusing to take the bait as Karzai’s rhetoric against Pakistan broke all barriers recently, the diplomat refused to get ruffled and instead said: “While Karzai is trying to become popular (domestically) when he takes on Pakistan and the US, our relations are very critical and Pakistan should look for immediate objectives. Of course the US will be happy to see the Taliban talk the Afghan High Peace Council even if it is under protest”. Pakistan is also getting a sense that some Taliban groups are getting tired of the war and efforts should be made to get other such like-minded groups to support them. “Otherwise the hardliners will take over “, he said.His comments came at a time when the Pakistani Taliban announced the dismissal of its spokesman, Ehsanullah Ehsan, signaling a further split amongst the militants.
Re: Pakistan quietly preparing for civil war in Afghanistan
.....As prices of property keep rising in areas outside Peshawar in anticipation of what comes next from across the Durrand Line, at this point the diplomat said the government could not contemplate the number of Afghan refugees that could flow in if there is a civil war.........
Quietly preparing for expanding DHA, Peshawar it would seem.
Re: Pakistan quietly preparing for civil war in Afghanistan
Some reports emanating from Washington suggest that due to the recent verbal spat of karzai with them , they are contemplating a complete withdrawal from Afghanistan. If that happens, there's a very strong likelihood that the country could again face a civil war situation. Like Shamraz has mentioned I believe Pakistan should stay neutral and guard its borders. We are not in a position to take in more refugees, the country should in that case ask UN to look after them.
“I’m much concerned as to what will be the situation … I’m going to caution you that your tribal areas will not be a part of the country anymore if Taliban regained power in Kabul as a result of the ongoing peace talks with US,” Adeel warned.
Re: Pakistan quietly preparing for civil war in Afghanistan
Some reports emanating from Washington suggest that due to the recent verbal spat of karzai with them , they are contemplating a complete withdrawal from Afghanistan. If that happens, there's a very strong likelihood that the country could again face a civil war situation. Like Shamraz has mentioned I believe Pakistan should stay neutral and guard its borders. We are not in a position to take in more refugees, the country should in that case ask UN to look after them.
What would Pakistan do like bomb the incoming refugees with F16s or use artillery on them? Putting human considerations aside, talk about uniting fazlu + ANP in stabbing the army in the back on this and pakistani awam to follow with it. Fence to lag nahin saka (would help in some places) and talk about stopping refugees from coming in? Iran is already facing a squeeze and CARs mine their borders + amu darya (harder to cross?) so the only viable option is Pakistan as afghanistan's major cities lie closer to Pakistan.
Iranis also look down about hazaras, their own shiite brethren, so they definitely won't like sunnis flooding in the country. Pakistan has never put them in cages unlike in Iran. Pakistan is linked in Af-Pak this way and this is why I want Pakistani role there albeit in a positive sense w/o taliban.
Re: Pakistan quietly preparing for civil war in Afghanistan
There is war now and there will be war after grand daddy of all terrorist declares another victory, tuck its tail and run to the other side of the world... Only sides will change... This time all Afghan refugees should head for India since they love bharat so much.
Pakistan should do what Eyran did - keep them locked and never let em out.
Re: Pakistan quietly preparing for civil war in Afghanistan
Some reports emanating from Washington suggest that due to the recent verbal spat of karzai with them , they are contemplating a complete withdrawal from Afghanistan. If that happens, there's a very strong likelihood that the country could again face a civil war situation. Like Shamraz has mentioned I believe Pakistan should stay neutral and guard its borders. We are not in a position to take in more refugees, the country should in that case ask UN to look after them.
Which is the norm for the country for the last 200 years! It would be better it is divided into two countries now!
Re: Pakistan quietly preparing for civil war in Afghanistan
Some reports emanating from Washington suggest that due to the recent verbal spat of karzai with them , they are contemplating a complete withdrawal from Afghanistan. If that happens, there's a very strong likelihood that the country could again face a civil war situation. Like Shamraz has mentioned I believe Pakistan should stay neutral and guard its borders. We are not in a position to take in more refugees, the country should in that case ask UN to look after them.
Americans will not leave the place just because they are angry over a spat. They would rather prefer to remove Karzai from the scene if he does not fit in their scheme of things. The US will be fool to withdraw completely from Afghanistan without putting in place a workable and sustainable peace plan that involves Taliban and Pakistan. Everything depends on how stable Washington wants to see Afghanistan once it's gone from the battlefield.
Re: Pakistan quietly preparing for civil war in Afghanistan
pakistan should seal the border and let them do what ever the hell they want. there should absolutely be no influx of refugees this time around. rather they should find the ones that came before and send them back (impossible i know, but whats the harm in hoping). from talking to some of these guys, i can't believe how ungrateful and venemous towards pakistan the afghans are.
i agree that we should not mess around with their country. we have paid enough for past mistakes. let's stop interfering and also stop them from coming in.
Re: Pakistan quietly preparing for civil war in Afghanistan
Americans will not leave the place just because they are angry over a spat. They would rather prefer to remove Karzai from the scene if he does not fit in their scheme of things. The US will be fool to withdraw completely from Afghanistan without putting in place a workable and sustainable peace plan that involves Taliban and Pakistan. Everything depends on how stable Washington wants to see Afghanistan once it's gone from the battlefield.
It's not easy to deal with afghans. Pakistan thought it was helping afghans during the past 35 years but the afghans still hate us, the Americans are also believing that they are helping them where as what the people think of them we know.