Two years ago, Mr. John Briscoe, a senior advisor to the World Bank, warned the government of Pakistan that ----- the survival of a modern and growing Pakistan is threatened by (lack of) water. Pakistan has to invest and invest soon, in costly and contentious new large dams.
Pakistan has very little water storage capacity. The United States and Australia have over 5,000 cubic metres of storage capacity per inhabitant and China has 2,200 cubic metres, while Pakistan has only 150 cubic metres of storage capacity per capita.
**Pakistan can barely store 30 days of water in the Indus basin. **If something wrong happens with the Indus basin, Pakistan has no alternative to feed its agriculture. There is no latitude for error ---------- (The Dawn, 20th Sept. 2005).
The warning is indeed dire. According to IRSA, water storage in Pakistan has been reduced to half of what is needed. For the past seven years, General Musharraf has declared that any dam will be built only after reaching a consensus. This is a very long time for a man who committed Pakistan to some one else’s war on one telephone call. The people among whom he is ostensibly seeking consensus are not responsible or answerable to the people of Pakistan ; he is. The consequences of delay in reaching a consensus, for which only he must take the blame, are horrendous, to say the least.
It takes the better part of ten years to complete the construction of a large dam. Work has not started on even one of these. It is estimated that there will be fifty million more mouths to feed in another ten years. To put it in perspective, it amounts to feeding the population of Britain , in addition to our own, with progressively reduced amounts of water made available for agriculture. Since this is clearly not possible, in the short term, it will mean costly and continually increasing food imports. These can only be sustained for a relatively short period. Ultimately, it will lead to persistent famine.
Among other equally frightening consequences, there will be shortage of drinking water, particularly where the ground water is not fit for consumption. Tens of millions of people will be forced to migrate, causing serious reduction in agricultural production and leading to large-scale social disruption. One only needs to turn to history books to know what tragedy it can wreak.
The conditions are likely to be further aggravated by the vagaries and uncertainties of any climate change. Lower riparians will suffer the most, not only due to water shortage but also because of the renewed seasonal floods caused by diminished storage capacity in the existing reservoirs. Bustling cities and towns like Hyderabad , Sehwan, Sukkur, Ghotki, Mirpur, etc. will be ravaged by floodwaters whenever there is excessive rainfall in the catchments.
The worsening situation will lead to serious inter-provincial wrangling and disputes. In the worst case, civil wars may erupt and the country could break-up. The possibility of wars over water rights with India and Afghanistan cannot be discounted. Since it is mostly the western countries that have exportable food surpluses, they will gain a stranglehold on Pakistan . Almost certainly, they will use the leverage to divest Pakistan of her nuclear capability.
It should not be difficult for any one with interest in military history to comprehend the full implications of the situation. Britain seriously considered surrendering in 1943 when German u-boats in the western approaches critically disrupted her food imports. Since then, she has drained marshes and cut down fruit orchards and forests to raise crops and achieve self-sufficiency in food production.
Pakistan also suffers from serious power shortages. In addition to storing water for agriculture, large dams are a cheap and non-polluting source of power supply. At the current prices, it is nearly seven times more expensive to generate power from imported oil than indigenous dams. In an increasingly competitive export market, it makes no sense to burden our industries with the avoidable handicap of costly electricity from oil and gas fired power plants.
The time is long past when the issue could languish under the illusory pretext of consensus-seeking. The fate of the entire nation cannot be held hostage to the unending bickering of parochial politicians with questionable aims and commitment. If an unmitigated disaster of unimaginable proportions is to be avoided resolute action, not mere lip service, is called for urgently. The so-called war on terror, extremism, privatization follies, the port at Gwadar where no ships call, keeping the Indians pleased at any cost and the crises in judiciary and Lal Masjid, etc may seem all-important today. In ten years, what will matter most is if, after seven years of apathy and procrastination, the country has enough water left to support agriculture and life itself.
Credits to: a poster on yahoo group