Re: Pakistan elections
Okay, so a poll might work better, and I might do that if this gets out of hand...but...
Lets say, for argument's sake, the election isn't rigged. Lets just use our "imagination". I know, some of you misplaced it and don't know where to find it, but just try hard anyway.
Lets say you get to vote. And you discard all pessimism and go forth and actually vote.
Which candidate would you vote for?
(the only reason why I'm not running a pole is because there are what ? 80 something parties running and I don't know names of each and every candidate, and I don't want anyone to not be able to pipe up the name of a hero no matter how small he/she/it might be).
I don't want debating or anything - I just want to see who YOU think should be the next PM. :)
I'm just curious to know which chor will win.
Sister, I am sure that you would not like to get misguided or get propaganda reply. Believe me, I am not giving you reply while on ganjja or nuswar ... but with reality in mind. I also think that you would like to know how political system works in Pakistan ... as I believe from your post that you have little idea (i dont know, that is what I think) ... and thus here is a brief summary (the way I see things :))
Election in Pakistan is not like west. It is much different.
It most rural areas ... strong individuals in their constituency wins whatever party they contest. That is why you will hear one party being happy that their oppostion certain party is not even getting candidates in particular constituency.
So ... it is possible that you may think party A won or party B won .. but if you go down to who won, you will find same names though not in same party. For instance, Amin Fahim would win in Hala (suburb of Hyderabad and his stronghold, considered as stronghold of PPP) whatever party he contest ... even as candidate of MQM. Similarly Laghari would win his constituency whatever party he contest. In past Laghari use to contest for PPP but today he and his son contest as allies of PML(Q) and it does not matter, they both would win, for whichever party they would contest.
So, you can say that the party that have strong candidates in rural areas would win the election. Who are strong candidates? They are those who won in 2002 too. Sometime strong individuals could lose election, but that is very rare.
In urban areas (and some parts of NWFP) people might vote on individual candidates plus what work they have done or their party has done [urban parties are MQM, and to extend at present PML(N) ... though these parties do have supports in rural areas too ... MMA is similar in nature as urban party but different in essences].
So, let see what was the position of the party after 2002 election as most likely same people in most rural constitutency would return (with few exceptions) and most likely in urban constituency too ... though again I believe that since PML(Q) and MQM (being urban party) has done lot of work in their constituencies, they would gain more seats then 2002.
Now here is party position of 2002.
PML(Q) = around 150 seats out of 342.
[Many won as independents in 2002 rural constituencies and later joined PML(Q), shows how strong these candidates are in their constituency]. I think that in 2008, they would improve on that number ... I think they could win around 170 to 175 seats (maybe more).
PML(N) ... they got 16 seats. At that time NS was less known as liar and corrupt (curtesy to independent media). I think that if his party would get 16 seats than NS should do bhangra, as I do not believe he would get that number of seats in 2008 (most likely he would get less than 10 seats).
PPP (BB) though got around 80 or so seats, many strong MNAs left PPP and joined PPP Patriots ... leaving PPP (BB) with 55 MNAs. At that time, many Pakistanis did not knew about her Rockwood palace, Diamond neckless, Switzerland verdict on her corruption, corruption cases in Fracne, Spain and UK, NRO ... etc (again curtesy to free media) and that means .. especially after death of BB, if PPP gets 55 seats they should consider themelves lucky. For me, if they would get 45 seats than they should consider that good result for them.
[BB was having very bad response from public and that is the reason that when she thought that outside her car in Pindi she has supporters ... a rarerity for her this time ... she got desperate and did not even cared for her life and came out of sunroof to get killed. In past she would have ignored them].
Reason is that even though PPP is party of corrupts, they have some very strong candidates from rural areas that would win their seats regardless. PPP will not end up like NS party, because NS party stronghold (like MQM) are cities who see performance of party, and they have rejected him in 2002 and he has done nothing to come back to any expectations [PML(Q) has done lot of work in punjab not to let NS and his party come back even in cities]. NS rural strength that use to depend on strong candidates are gone as those candidates are now contesting elections for PML(Q).
JI (Qazi): One can see how he has lost control over his party and is unpopular even amongst JI supporters that his many million march calls always ended up with few hundred people. When he told IJT (student wing of JI) to support Imran when Imran visited Punjab university ... student of IJT greeted Imran with ... latayain, jutay, thappar, thudday, ghoosay and galyain. That is why today to avoid embarassment JI is not contesting election.
Same is with Imran. He knows that if he contest election, he would get humiliated with his party getting ZERO seats and that is the reason he is not contesting election.
MMA (that includes JI) got 57 seat in 2002. Their candidates are exception as they are not strong candidates except few from Fazlu party, JI and some others ... and thus they have to perform to maintain their support. I think that after lal masjid goons, swat Mullah disco, Waziristan wild mullahs, all these suicide bombings all over Pakistan, disgusting government performance in NWFP, if MMA (who is today mostly Fazlur-Rahman group) would get even 15 to 20 seats, they should be happy.
I beleive that PML(Q) and ANP would benefit from MMA losses, as many strong candidates of ANP lost in 2002 who would come back, plus PML(Q) would gain because of their work and they must have also gained support because of strong actions against Fisadis [as many MMA supportes and others who suffered because of Fisadis would support PML(Q)]
MQM = 18 seats in 2002. I know that they have done lot of work in their constituency and also in other constituencies of sindh. Thus, they would surely going to imporve on their 2002 seats. I think that most likely they would get at least 23 seats in 2008.
Anyhow .. leaving all others minor parties ... those who would not contest election under above parties ... I think that:
PML(Q) would form government with the help of MQM and allies. It is possible that they may also join Fazlu party in government. Most likely Pervaiz Elahi would become Prime Minister but it is also possible that someone from PML(Q) allies may become prime minister (like Fazlu or others ... or they might even bring someone unknown).
