Pakistan Elections 2013 - Electoral Map

Society Pakistan & World Affairs
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Here I am putting down data for Karachi and Hyderabad (following post) that consists of 24 out of Pakistan 272 electable constituencies. I would love to see similar data and assessments for remaining 248 constituencies that would be contested. All data taken from ‘Pakistan election commission’ official website.
http://www.ecp.gov.pk/GE2008.aspx

KARACHI 20 constituencies (NA 239 to NA 258):

Total registered votes (20 constituencies of Karachi): 6653915
Total valid vote casted (In Karachi 20 constituencies): 3036553

Total votes to MQM: 2172858 (71.56 percent of total cast votes)
Total votes to PPP: 766723 (25.25 percent of total cast votes)

Total combined votes to Ind, JI, MMA, ANP, PMLQ, PMLN, etc: 96972 (3.19 percent of total cast votes)

Overall result of 20 seats:
MQM: 17 seats
PPP: 3 seats.

**Here are results of each Karachi constituency **(I am posting votes obtained by any party that got more than few hundred votes in the constituency):

NA239 – Karachi 1:
Registered votes: 312401
Valid votes casted: 110675

1: PPP … 56840
2: MQM … 24013
3: PMLN … 12329
4: MMA … 5869

NA240 – Karachi 2:
Registered votes: 279723
Valid votes casted: 130737

1: MQM … 67799
2: PPP … 61017
3: MMA … 1600

NA241 – Karachi 3:
Registered votes: 268582
Valid votes casted: 145735

1: MQM … 93617
2: ANP … 36236
3: PPP … 11544
4: PMLN … 3510

NA242 – Karachi 4:
Registered votes: 296822
Valid votes casted: 177030

1: MQM … 147892
2: PPP … 27294
3: Ind … 1067

NA243 – Karachi 5:
Registered votes: 333290
Valid votes casted: 192133

1: MQM … 167764
2: PPP … 22147
3: PMLN … 1862

NA244 – Karachi 6:
Registered votes: 290891
Valid votes casted: 185581

1: MQM … 174044
2: PPP … 9271
3: MMA … 1518

NA245 – Karachi 7:
Registered votes: 344004
Valid votes casted: 168328

1: MQM … 149157
2: PPP … 15392
3: ANP … 301

NA246 – Karachi 8:
Registered votes: 310045
Valid votes casted: 194278

1: MQM … 186933
2: PPP … 6741
3: Ind … 604

NA247 – Karachi 9:
Registered votes: 303455
Valid votes casted: 182714

1: MQM … 168007
2: PPP … 13963
3: MMA … 484

NA248 – Karachi 10:
Registered votes: 351345
Valid votes casted: 104565

1: PPP … 84217
2: Ind … 9651
3: MQM … 6326

NA249 – Karachi 11:
Registered votes: 388099
Valid votes casted: 180748

1: MQM … 103846
2: PPP … 73324
3: MMA … 3352

NA250 – Karachi 12:
Registered votes: 344657
Valid votes casted: 101731

1: MQM … 52045
2: PPP … 44412
3: PMLN … 3480

NA251 – Karachi 13:
Registered votes: 337193
Valid votes casted: 131024

1: MQM … 83537
2: PMLN … 22304
3: PPP … 17823
4: Ind … 6653

NA252 – Karachi 14:
Registered votes: 277553
Valid votes casted: 115287

1: MQM … 87280
2: PPP … 25337
3: MMA … 2237

NA253 – Karachi 15:
Registered votes: 398527
Valid votes casted: 152843

1: MQM … 96973
2: PPP … 47101
3: PMLN … 4160

NA254 – Karachi 16:
Registered votes: 309295
Valid votes casted: 153502

1: MQM … 132648
2: PPP … 14302
3: PMLN … 4965

NA255 – Karachi 17:
Registered votes: 331927
Valid votes casted: 190638

1: MQM … 157971
2: PPP … 31389
3: Ind … 689

NA256 – Karachi 18:
Registered votes: 371067
Valid votes casted: 163868

1: MQM … 123491
2: PPP … 23829
3: Ind … 13654

NA257 – Karachi 19:
Registered votes: 386376
Valid votes casted: 185901

1: MQM … 134498
2: PPP … 46084
3: PMLN … 4296

**
NA258 – Karachi 20:**
Registered votes: 418663
Valid votes casted: 169235

1: PPP … 134696
2: MQM … 15017
3: Ind … 11505

It seems in last General election, ANP knowing they could not win NA seats against MQM may have given votes to PPP. But regardless, there are constituencies where ANP contested election and got few votes.

Even though change in side of Nabil Gabol (PPP) and Qadir Khan (ANP) to MQM could considerably boost MQM in next election, Taliban factor would also help MQM amongst Pakhtun voters as most would look towards MQM for protection knowing that ANP could not protect even their own party leaders, workers and offices in Karachi from Taliban in Pakhtun areas.

Forgetting ground changes I mentioned above that could benefit MQM substantially, there are only 2 constituencies that can be classified vulnerable for winning party (in both constituencies, winning party is MQM). Two constituencies are:

**Vulnerable Constituencies: **

NA 240 and NA 250 (vulnerable constituencies):

NA240 – Karachi 2:
Registered votes: 279723
Valid votes casted: 130737

1: MQM … 67799
2: PPP … 61017
3: MMA … 1600

MQM got 51.86 percent casted votes
PPP got 46.67 percent casted votes

It means, if there is swing of 2.6 percent votes from MQM to PPP and PPP do not lose any votes then PPP could win this seat. Though I doubt any change would happen.

NA250 – Karachi 12:
Registered votes: 344657
Valid votes casted: 101731

1: MQM … 52045
2: PPP … 44412
3: PMLN … 3480

MQM got 51.16 percent casted votes
PPP got 43.66 percent casted votes

It means, if there is swing of 3.76 percent votes from MQM to PPP and PPP do not lose any votes then PPP could win this seat. There could be some drawback for MQM due to NA 250 recent changes in constituency delimitation, but that is speculative effect, as I doubt such changes could make much difference.

For rest of the constituencies, in my opinion, vote swing needed is too large for MQM or PPP to lose seats (barring any abnormality and miraculous voting swings).

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Re: Elections 2013 and your participation & Ideas

HYDERABAD 4 constituencies (NA 218 to NA 221):

Total registered votes (4 constituencies of Hyderabad): 1300707
Total valid vote casted (In Hyderabad 4 constituencies): 611203

Total votes to MQM: 315178 (51.57 percent of total cast votes)
Total votes to PPP: 181758 (29.74 percent of total cast votes)

Total combined votes to Ind, JI, MMA, ANP, PMLQ, PMLN, etc: 114267 (18.69 percent of total cast votes)

Overall result: 4 seats:
MQM: 2 seats
PPP: 2 seats

Here are results of each constituency (I am posting votes obtained by any party that got more than few hundred votes in the constituencies):

NA218 – Hyderabad 1:
Registered votes: 264345
Valid votes casted: 127049

1: PPP … 97717
2: PMLN … 26510
3: MMA … 5869

NA219 – Hyderabad 2:
Registered votes: 352697
Valid votes casted: 195883

1: MQM … 168136
2: PPP … 25343
3: PMLN … 1706

NA220 – Hyderabad 3:
Registered votes: 364798
Valid votes casted: 174781

1: MQM … 147040
2: PPP … 24108
3: PMLN … 2215

NA121 – Hyderabad 4:
Registered votes: 318867
Valid votes casted: 113490

1: PPP … 84041
2: PML(Q)… 26391
3: MMA … 2189

In my opinion, none of the Hyderabad seats are vulnerable for representing party (MQM and PPP) to lose or any other party to gain from here.

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Re: Pakistan Elections 2013 - Electoral Map

Lahore has 13 seats, NA 118 to NA 130.

In the previous elections PMLN got 60 %, PPPP 25 % and PMLQ 12 % of all casted votes.

NA 118 Lahore 1

PMLN 55900
PPPP 24712
PMLQ 11075

[TABLE="width: 0"]

Registered Voters:
250,850

Valid votes casted: 92862

NA 119 Lahore 2

PMLN - uncontested

NA 120 Lahore 3

PML N 65,946
PPPP 24,380
PML Q 4,270

Registered Voters: 268,552
Valid votes casted: 96,275

NA 121 Lahore 4

PMLN 72,227
PPPP 27,934
PMLQ 7,559

Registered voters: 303,962
Valid votes casted: 108,453

*NA 122 Lahore 5
*
PMLN 79506
PPPP 24963
PMLQ 10657

Registered voters: 331,381
Valid votes casted: 116,359

*NA 123 Lahore 6
*
PMLN 44146
Ind 9192
Ind 3257

Registered voters: 288984
Valid votes casted:

*NA 124 Lahore 7
*
PMLN 71342
PPPP 23412
PMLQ 10881

Registered voters: 275675
Valid votes casted: 106458

*NA 125 Lahore 8
*
PMLN 79506
PPPP 24963
PMLQ 10657

Registered voters: 311540
Valid votes casted: 110240

*NA 126 Lahore 9
*
PMLN 69718
PPPP 25056
PMLQ 23657

Registered voters: 360304
Valid votes casted: 119684

*NA 127 Lahore 10
*
PMLN 53602
PPPP 21698
PMLQ 13707

Registered voters: 279080
Valid votes casted: 93050

*NA 128 Lahore 11
*
PMLN 65727
PPPP 37608
PMLQ 18252

Registered voters: 275267
Valid votes casted: 122617

*NA 129 Lahore 12
*
PPPP 36604
PMLN 29058
PMLQ 25918

Registered voters: 200935
Valid votes casted: 93717

*NA 130 Lahore 13
*
PPPP 44692
PMLN 41041
PMLQ 12613

Registered voters: 226575
Valid votes casted: 98851

The seats to be watched in Lahore would be NA 118, 122, 126, 128, 129 and 130. A new factor that's present in these elections is PTI and no one knows what kind of impact they will make in the electoral politics of Lahore. NA 129 and 130 were very close in the previous elections and can tip anywhere. I do not see any role of PPP and PMLQ in Lahore in the coming elections, I suspect most of the supporters of these parties would be voting for PTI in the coming elections.

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Re: Pakistan Elections 2013 - Electoral Map

pakistan.gif (image)

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Re: Pakistan Elections 2013 - Electoral Map

^ thanks

Restored attachments:

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pakistan.jpg800×600 161 KB

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Re: Pakistan Elections 2013 - Electoral Map

We should remember that 2008 elections sentiments were somewhat pro-Mush v/s anti-Mush also. PML(N) and PPP "cooperated" in several places to eat up PML(Q) votes. That factor is not there anymore.

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Re: Pakistan Elections 2013 - Electoral Map

^ I think PMLQ and PPP's votes would go down in many places in the Punjab.

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Re: Election 2013

http://www.paklinks.com/gs/attachment.php?attachmentid=37689&d=1364805129

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Re: Pakistan Elections 2013 - Electoral Map

Man these PMLN is winning from lahore with 40,000 votes :S

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Re: Pakistan Elections 2013 - Electoral Map

^ it was a big victory for pmln but they lost the rural seats of Lahore.

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Re: Pakistan Elections 2013 - Electoral Map

Insha Allah this time PTI will beat them by some margin in Lahore

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Re: Pakistan Elections 2013 - Electoral Map

Constituency Profile + Party Position | DAWN.COM

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Re: Pakistan Elections 2013 - Electoral Map

Keep em coming guys. I will put them in chronolgical order once everything is here in this thread. Or in a separate one.

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Re: Pakistan Elections 2013 - Electoral Map

Thanks kakaballi, this is quite useful.

Pakistan Election 2013 Map

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Re: Pakistan Elections 2013 - Electoral Map

Interesting the electoral map mentions Javed Hashmi contesting from NA 126.

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Re: Pakistan Elections 2013 - Electoral Map

Saleem, interesting how you pointed out the MQM strongholds in Karachi and Hyderabad. They are expected to win those seats again. Lets have a look at MQM’s 5 year performance shall we?

https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/564522_395258243915239_2076883811_n.jpg

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Re: Pakistan Elections 2013 - Electoral Map

^^^ Brother, do not worry. MQM got 20 NA seats in last election (25 after reserves are added up) and I believe this year they would get much more.

Anyhow, in above post I did not pointed out stronghold of any political parties. I am from Karachi and I only posted 2008 election results from Karachi and Hyderabad. I did not exclude parts of Karachi and Hyderabad where PPP won the election, as the details I gave includes all constituencies from Karachi and Hyderabad. My results source is Pakistan election commission web site, so one cannot say that I am in any way bias. I left remaining constituencies for others.

As for you talking about performance, it makes me laugh.:)

Even though I believe MQM has a lot in performance to show to people they represent, that is unfortunately irrelevant in Pakistani politics, as it seems People in Pakistan do not look at performance, else they would have elected PML(Q) in last election and not PPP or PMLN.

Just imagine, people elected PMLN in Punjab and PPP at most places in Pakistan. Though as far as performance is concerned, PMLN is the only party under whose rule Pakistan defaulted twice (in 1998 and 1999) and PMLN both previous periods in power were economically worse Pakistan has ever seen (even worse than PPP periods under BB).

PMLN made one motorway, that is from Lahore to Islamabad and talks a lot about motorway as if he made all 4 motorways Pakistan has (3 out of those 4 made or started by Musharraf, and even the one PMLN made, Musharraf enlarged that. Well, 2 motorways were made and third got started by Musharraf … plus Musharraf made 100s of nicely constructed roads all over Pakistan, especially in Baluchistan). But them whatever PMLN do, they would get votes from north Punjab, as voters do not look at performance, rather, they see Bradari and what the person throw to them in bones.

As for performance, I would not be surprised if Nawaz would claim that his grandfather wrote ‘Bang-e-dara’ and his father made Taj-Mahal at Agra to gift Shah-Jahan, and people who vote PMLN would believe him. Actually, if anyone would say that Iqbal wrote Bang-e-Dara and that Nawaz father was not even born at time when Taj-Mahal was made, these PMLN ignorant voters would argue full of enthusiasm defending whatever Nawaz claimed. This is how performance matters in Pakistan election. :)

As for performance of MQM … why accept my words?

Few days ago I saw a program on TV (ab-tak) and in that program ‘Jasmeen’ went to Qasimabad constituency in Hyderabad (where PPP represents both Provincial and National assembly and are winning there in every past elections). Qasimabad is a big city and representatives there got around 10 billion rupees from government in last five years to spend there on development, what PPP thug politicians steal instead of using it on development. Still:

One could easily see from program that even main city road and roundabout was full of ‘Katchra’ (garbage) and road can be seen filled with smelly gutter water, Local hospitals had no facilities neither schools in area had any facilities or were working properly … smell was all around (as told by Jasmeen) and then one resident (I believe, Sindhi speaking Sindhi of the area) in interview said that no work has ever got done in the area ever … then he said that ‘look at Latifabad (MQM constituency) that is now just like 'Europe' and look here’. In program, one person showed poster with pictures of BB, Zardari, winner of constituency, etc and pointed out at face of the representative of constituency that was full of dark patches put by voters, showing their hate towards the person.

So, you can see that MQM do work where they get elected (and their opponents on ground also accept that), but regardless of work by MQM, in Pakistan full of short memories, I do not think that MQM on their performance would win Qasimabad from PPP (where PPP won still has done no work), because performance do not matter in Pakistan … else PMLN and PPP would not have won any seats in 2008 election … but they did … because performance is irrelevant in Pakistani politics when election result is concerned.

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Re: Pakistan Elections 2013 - Electoral Map

^^^ Since I quoted Ab-Tak program on Qasimabad and claimed that no work was done there by PPP MNA and PPP MPA … and ‘one person in the program quoted Latifabad that to him looks like Europe (confirming that MQM perform)’ … I believe it would be appropriate to give reference to that program, else some might say that I am doing propaganda.

So, here is program … check Jasmeen interview with a boy in the program wearing white shirt (starting at around 14.15 … and statement he made at 15.00 onward where he says that ‘look at Latifabad that has become like Europe (shows that MQM do perform)’.

Tonight With Jasmeen - 8th April 2013

Qasimabad is around 95 percent Sindhi Speaking Sindhis … so even though they can see and acknowledge that MQM works and do perform in constituencies MQM are responsible (regardless of who lives in the area), still it is unlikely that these people would vote MQM, rather most likely, these peoplewould vote PPP regardless of their performance … because when it comes to vote, most Pakistanis would obey their Masters on basis of Bradari or whatever.

As for performance of MQM in Karachi, my family is living in Karachi since before 1947, and I can assure you that no party or government since 1947 worked for betterment of Karachi more than MQM, especially work done by SMK, as the speed he worked to make life better in Karachi even surprised me (that is something, as I seen development works in UK and I can say that extensive work he took and speed he completed works in Karachi was really exceptional).

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Re: Pakistan Elections 2013 - Electoral Map

Interesting… if you see this with Election Commission of Pakistan

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changingPakistan | May 11 Elections – Table of Winning Candidates