England’s fate for this winter will be determined this week by the Pakistan Cricket Board, when they decide whether to stage their Test and one-day series against England in the Gulf or Sri Lanka
**If Pakistan stage their three-Test series against England in Sri Lanka in January and February, it will add up to the most physically demanding tour England have ever made, because a two-Test series against Sri Lanka is to follow in March.
Five Tests in two months in Sri Lanka’s heat and humidity would make last winter’s Ashes a comparative stroll.
**It had been thought that the PCB would stage England’s one-day series in the Gulf and the Tests in Sri Lanka, but the PCB’s chief executive Subhan Ahmed said they would take place together in one country, either Sri Lanka or the United Arab Emirates.
A three-Test series in the Gulf, shared between Abu Dhabi and Dubai, would be much less taxing for England at that time of year, without the humidity.
This week’s decision, although it will not be announced immediately, hinges on finances.
Pakistan have to host Sri Lanka this autumn in what they anticipate will be a loss-making series, and want to recoup their losses when they play England. The two series will be staged in one country.
“The loss we make on one series will be offset by the money we make on the other (against England),” Ahmed said.
Pakistan have not been able to stage a home series in Pakistan since the terrorist attack in Lahore in March 2009.
Whether England play against Pakistan in the Gulf or Sri Lanka, hundreds if not thousands of supporters can be expected to follow them, providing valuable tourist revenue and relatively lucrative ticket sales.
There will be cricketing implications, too, stemming from the PCB’s decision.
England’s strategy of three pace bowlers and Graeme Swann has served them very well since they toured South Africa a year and a half ago, but even the fittest four-man attack would struggle to play five Tests in two months in Sri Lanka.
On England’s tour there in late 2007 they played a four-man attack which was supported by several change bowlers in Paul Collingwood, Ravi Bopara, Kevin Pietersen and Michael Vaughan. England lost the three-Test series 1-0.
England’s engagements against Sri Lanka in March will simply consist of two Tests and no limited-overs matches.
The rest of England’s tour to Sri Lanka will be completed in 2014.