Pakistan and the Nuclear Option

Society Military and Strategic Issues
1

It seems that India is gambling that Pakistan won’t use the nuclear option and is pressing for a limited war which they hope will weaken Pakistan financially and morale wise at a time when we are looking at an upturn in recent fortunes.

In a war the feeling seems to be that although Pakistani troops and military capability is superior to India’s, sheer size and numerics favours India - a comparable analogy would be the sher and the gheedar. Although a sher will frighten off 8-9 gheedhars, it’s reasonable to assume that 150 gheedars would overcome the sher - providing they could muster the courage to attack all at once.

So this appears to be the rationale behind India’s current war-mongering. If we analyse what is stopping the Indians from launching what they believe will be a successful limited war there are two reasons they are holding back.

  1. American interests in Pakistan as an oil route into central Asia.

  2. They are worried about the remote possibility that Pakistan might excercise the first strike nuclear option.

My opinion is that it is time for India to grow up and start taking a responsible view of the situation. India considers itself a big player in world politics and looking for a war in order to de-stabilise it’s smaller neighbour does not reflect well on it as a nation, neither is it in either countries real interests.

For our part, Pakistan needs to impress upon India that we, as ever, are looking for a prosperous future alongside all of our neighbours, and Musharraf has done a good job of moving us in this direction. We don’t need or want a war at this stage, but if a nuclear strike is what it takes to convince India that war is not a good idea, then they should be in no doubt that one or several nuclear strikes WILL be launched.

Another consideration should be that with Pak’s superiority in general warfare, there is also the risk of severe emabarrasment for India even if we dis-regard the nuclear option. India lost thousands of men during the Kargil episode and would have lost more had Clinton not intervened on their behalf. When India launched air raids against Pakistani positions they were quickly shot down and Indian raids promptly ceased.

Hindu nationalists need to be reined in within the Indian government to save itself from an unfortunate mistake.

2

Judge, good analysis.

If attacked across the international border or the LOC, I believe Pakistan WILL use low yield nuclear weapons on the Indian army and its strategic positions. If India retaliates in kind, this will lead to further larger yield reply from Pakistan. Then god only knows where these tit-for-tat actions lead.

I am not sure if anyone here watched the Newsnight programme last night? The former US Deputy Secretary of State, James Ruben, and the Indian High Commissioner were interviewed. As usual the Indian HC spewed out the same old mantra about cross border terrorism, and how this is like the 9/11 scenario. However, James Ruben, to the embarrassment of the Indian HC, put him in his place by saying it is wrong to compare the Kashmir situation with 9/11 scenario. He said the Kashmiris, over the past 50 years, have been fighting for a cause, whereas the 9/11 incident was just hatred towards the US.

Although I am skeptical about the role the US might be playing in the current stand-off (with their armed exercises with India at this critical time), for a former senior member of the US government to state the above says a lot.

3

2bornot2b,

yes, Indians need to understand that isolated acts of terrorism within India need to be seen in context and do not constitute a declaration of war. Indignant squealing and choori karkaa-ing by the rabble rousers in the Indian government is not in anyone's interests. This is no Bollywood script and Indians need to show the world that they are capable of Statesmanship. Let's hope they don't embarras themselves and their subjects any more after the Gujarat debacle.

4

[quote]
Originally posted by Judge^MentuLL:
...Indignant squealing and choori karkaa-ing by the rabble rousers in the Indian government is not in anyone's interests. This is no Bollywood script and Indians need to show the world that they are capable of Statesmanship. Let's hope they don't embarras themselves and their subjects any more after the Gujarat debacle...
[/quote]

Correct. And to think this is the nation that wants a seat on the UN Security Council?

5

JM, wasn't attack on WTC an individual act of terrorist which should be seen in context rather than declaring a war on a poor, illiterate nation with the help of their mentors Pakistan.

6

Judge^Mentull, I hope the Pak Army generals think like you do!!!

there are two reasons they are holding back.

  1. American interests in Pakistan as an oil route into central Asia.

  2. They are worried about the remote possibility that Pakistan might excercise the first strike nuclear option.
    <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<,

Muslim countries seem to be obesssed with Oil. Their consumers are not. What Oil prevented Israel from attacking Arab countries and US from attacking Afghanistan?

As for Pakistan exercising the ‘First Strike’, a more appropriate term would be ‘Last’ strike. !!

http://www3.pak.org/gupshup/smilies/biggrin.gif

Because that will be the LAST military strike Pakistan will implement for the foreseeable future!!

For our part, Pakistan needs to impress upon India that we, as ever, are looking for a prosperous future alongside all of our neighbours, and Musharraf has done a good job of moving us in this direction. <<<

Yes. I guess bombing Indian Parliament and Killing Indian Army families are ‘Moving’ Pakistan in this direction.
Don’t talk about ‘War’ on terrorism. That has nothing to do with India.

Another consideration should be that with Pak’s superiority in general warfare, there is also the risk of severe emabarrasment for India even if we dis-regard the nuclear option.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Ooooh!!! Where was this ‘Superiority’ in 1971?

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Anyway Indians seem willing to be ‘Embarassed’ why can’t Pak Army go ahead and embarass them ?

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India lost thousands of men during the Kargil episode and would have lost more had Clinton not intervened on their behalf.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<,

Only a Pakistani can repeat such self-consoling lies and BELIEVE in them!!!

If Clinton was intervening on our behalf Vajpayee would have gone to WAshington, not Sharif!!!

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Anyway as I said, I hope Pak Army generals think like you do!!!

Here for what worth is what I think India should be doing.

1.Concentrate on wiping out Pak Air Force like we did in 1971.
This time the urgency is that much more because of the nuclear factor.

2.Concentrate on wiping out the missile bases.

Israel and US could help in both !!!

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http://www3.pak.org/gupshup/smilies/wink.gif

Rest assured of one thing though.
India won’t step out and attack Pakistan whatever the provocation, until it consults ALL the major powers in the World!!

Do some research and find out how many countries Mrs. Gabdhi visited before 1971 !!!

7

I do not believe nuclear weapons will be used by Pakistan any time soon, probably never.
India has chalked out plans for strikes in Azad Kashmir at what they call 'terrorist camps', and they are trying to put their edge over Pakistan in the same category as that of Israel over Palestine, or US over Afghanistan. I think that is a bigger mistake, more than anything else. Pakistans military firepower more than makes up in quality what it lacks in numbers. That is apart from the professionalism in the ranks, which stands much higher compared to their counterparts in indian forces.

That being said, the real test always comes on the ground, and that, I feel, India is not prepared for. They have used their sheer size to try and bully Pakistan, but they do know that their military capabilities do not match up effectively. It will not be a lopsided, or an easy task by any means. War, thus, in reality, seems very unlikely.

If at all, a war is waged by India, it will be more to garner political support for the Vajpayee government, which has been on a losing streak at the home front.

8

India has chalked out plans for strikes in Azad Kashmir at what they call ‘terrorist camps’
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Terrorist Camp thing is hot air and everybody knows it. Even the US couldn’t do it with Afghanistan under Clinton.
Only solution is to invade.

Pakistans military firepower more than makes up in quality what it lacks in numbers.
<<<<<<<<<
What ‘Quality’ I think India can match Chinese hardware painted Green which is all Pakistan seems to have.
WHo is selling weapons to Pak? US, Russia or Israel?

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That is apart from the professionalism in the ranks, which stands much higher compared to their counterparts in indian forces.
<<<<<<<<<<,

As I pointed out earlier, this ‘Professionalism’ seems to have vanished in 1971, the last time Pak Army was called to display it!!!
Anyway what kind of ‘Professional’ army would invite Amreekan and Angrezi commandoes into it’s own country?
And what kind of ‘GOvernemnt’ will not even acknowledge the presence?

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It will not be a lopsided, or an easy task by any means. War, thus, in reality, seems very unlikely.
<<<<<<<<

I agree with this. War with Pakistan is not going to be easy, mainly because Indians would demand a ‘Permanent’ solution and more importantly the West would demand it. Once the hostilities start they would prefer that India see it through and install ‘Friendly’ government/s in what was Pakistan!!

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If at all, a war is waged by India, it will be more to garner political support for the Vajpayee government, which has been on a losing streak at the home front.
<<<<<<<<<<<,

This is a common Pakistani thinking seeing a BJP govt. in power.
BJP doesn’t take decisions by the way.
Indians go by ‘National Security COuncil’.
The BJP ministers and Chief Ministers of all 26 states participate along with the Army.

9

[quote]
Originally posted by Satavahana:
**

You mean like you have full control over IOK. Or are you refering to the invasion that is in its 5th month now... You better speed up at this rate it almost seems like its in reverse.**

10

[quote]
Originally posted by Satavahana:
**...Here for what worth is what I think India should be doing.

1.Concentrate on wiping out Pak Air Force like we did in 1971. This time the urgency is that much more because of the nuclear factor.

2.Concentrate on wiping out the missile bases...**
[/quote]

Oh well, it is good to see people living in a cloud cuckoo land. It appears our Indian friends have no concept of reality.

They have this feeling of grandeur, and think that they are somehow an untouchable super power with Pakistan military being equal to Afghanistan or Palestine?

11

Right now, the Indians, not only want to stop the infiltration across the Pakistan border, but even have bigger plans than that. They may want to dismember Pakistan, so that they could bring their dream of Akhand Bharat into reality. But they fail to see, the situation in India, due to religious in tolerance thats already rampant there. And if ever they try to do this kind of thing, it will hurt India even more. Right now, as in the case of Afghanistan US has already set a precedence and also in Israel-Palestinian issue. Its true that at the moment, India has superior weapons, and also their troops are larger in number, but while challenging Pakistan, Vajpayee forgets that the defence of Pakistan is not like that of Afghanistan, or Palestine. And if Pakistan, goes down, so will India. Pakistan's economy is already down the drain, therefore most of its consequences will be born by India.

[This message has been edited by zaavia (edited May 22, 2002).]

12

They have this feeling of grandeur, and think that they are somehow an untouchable super power with Pakistan military being equal to Afghanistan or Palestine? <<

No. When did I say that?
Refer to the post again. Of the two things I listed, history tells us that India did the first task in 1971.

In 1971 India did wipe out the Pak Airforce in it’s hangars!!!

So it is likely it will do so again.

As for the second point, wiping out Missile bases and launchers, I admit it is diffcult.

Even US and Israel couldn’t do it convincingly in Gulf War.
However they poured a lot of money and efoorts into Anti-Misslie defense since then and no doubt they will be willing to share it with us, if only to 'Ground Test the technologies!!

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13

Wipe ut the PAF ike 71!!! Have you read your history!!! The ratio of Pakistani to Indian AF kills was 3:1!!!

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And with the IAF having the highest rate of crashes in the world, you expect that to change?!!

Seriously, what do they teach you in Hindoostan?!!!

Simple fact about PAF training:
The average fighter pilot in the PAF logs approximately 220 flying hours a year, which is the second highest in the world, the highest being that of the United States Air Force (USAF) with 230 hours flying time per annum. This is higher than the number of hours logged by the Israeli Air Force pilots who log 180 hours per year and 80 hours more than the Indian Air Force pilots who log only 130 hours a year.

Many WESTERN experts have commented about the very high quality of the PAF. Many such as Chuck Yeager (among others) say it ranks among the best three, quality wise, in the world.

Fact is if India though it could take Kashmir, it would have done so a long time ago, esp with the extremist BJP/RSS in power.

Here’s a clip from the traditionally anti-Pakistani paper, the Times of London.
[This message has been edited by RealDeal (edited May 22, 2002).]

14

HEHE! YOU WISH!

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you seem to be forgetting that Amecia’s greatest ALLY in its war against terrorism is PAKISTAN!!!

A fact that irks the Indians to no end, but nevertheless true.

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15

The Pakistanis, who are considered better troops, would beat off the initial offensive.<<

Realdeal,
Indians always accepted that Pakistanis are darned good fighters in battlefield or a cricket match!!

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It is Pakistanis who seem to have difficulty accepting that Indians can fight!!
Reminds me of what one Amreekan said after a German General went on and on about how brave and good German Soldiers were and how pathetic the Allies!!
He said "We Were Good Enough To WIn the War and that is all that matters!!! "

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What do you have to say to THAT?

16

Akif,

"I do not believe nuclear weapons will be used by Pakistan any time soon, probably never.
India has chalked out plans for strikes in Azad Kashmir at what they call 'terrorist camps'"

I believe you are right. Indian PM was out telling soldiers that a "decisive" battle was coming. Decisive of course could mean an assault to eliminate "terrorist" camps. Unfortunately they will find them empty, as all of the "terrorists" have been well trained and are at or across the LOC. Infact, most of them are probably happily causing trouble such as yesterday's assasination in hopes of precipitating and all out fight, which would be in their best interest. From what I have been able to discern, India would have a response that is punitive rather than based on conquering land. That would give them the ability to launch a limited attack at a time and place of their choosing, and then withdraw before the nuclear weapons come out.

Because the Indians have the opportunity of suprise as to time and place, they will initially have an advantage. If Pak assumes a defensive posture and flexes but does not bend the event has the ability to be short and furious, but non-nuclear. Vajpayee goes back and says, "we wiped out terrorist bases", and Mushy says,"we resisted and blew them back to the LOC". Face saving on both sides, but somewhat short of all out war.

17

Maybe you are paying too much attention to the boasts of certain patriotic Pakistanis.
You should know never to take this at face value.

I have talked to many Pak Armed Forces officers, none of them say India has a horrible Armed Forces. They say where India has a edge and where it doesn’t.

Pak clearly has a better AF by miles, and in certain ways a better Army. Perhaps this can be judged by the fact that Pak has beaten off a country nearly ten times bigger.

Pak officers always say India’s advantage is they outnumber us, two options here, (1) some days/weeks of fighting, then a ceasefire will be called, or(2)nukes will be used which will end all conventional superiority(and yes I know, you don’t have to lecture me about what will happen to the region of this happens).

[This message has been edited by RealDeal (edited May 22, 2002).]

18

OG, do you think that the Pakistani troops on the border with Indian Occupied Kashmir, are wearing bangles that they will allow that the Indians to cross over into Pakistani terrority and choose their targets. Secondly, I dont think that this war will remained confined to the vale of Kashmir. It will spread, the Indians have already started mobilizing their war ships.

I will emphasize that Pakistan, is no push over like Jordan or Palestine, versus Israelis. If the Indians take a mis adventure it could misfire, casting a "question mark" on the existance of millions in this region.

19

The actual test will come after India gets its face saver only to find out nothing has changed on the ground. So much of a victory and a face saver, Indian style that is

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20

Well pointed out there, very true.