Most people agree that problems of Pakistan are profound and systemic and wouldn't be solved by the impeachment or resignation of Musharaf or elevation of any other individual or faction to power. Aggravating the problems of statehood is the transition in the international system that started with the end of Cold War and collapse of Soveit Union and seems to be lasting ahead into the second or third decade of the 21st Century until another phase of stability emerges. This transition manifested through the changes that took place in the Middle East, Baltics, and Balkans (where zone of influence were redefined and demarcation lines redrawn) and are now occuring in Central-South Asia.
It cannot be predicted with certainty what status would the major world players like to assign to Pakistan in the new international system and how much is Pakistan able to influence the future to enhance its role and stability.
Let us get to serious discussion. What future scenario can you envisage regarding Pakistan.
Scenario I
Year 2012 Problems of Pakistan have become more complex and formidable. Talebanization, lawlessness, and ethnic conflicts have risen even more. Economic situation has further aggravated. Inflation, price-hike, lack of public amenties have taken their toll on the masses.
Year 2016 Situation of law and order has worsened such that only Punjab is manageable. Economy and governing structures have collapsed.
Year 2020 Pakistan as a state has ceased to exist or function.
Scenario II
Pakistan has significantly been transformed with the power of army and other security organs reduced. Talebanization has been reversed and terrorist networks defeated and eliminated. significant autonomy has been granted to federating units and Durand Lind has been internationally recognized to be a permanent border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Pakistan has been successfully integrated in the regional economic system and has become a part of a regional security arrangement in which India plays the leading role.
There are permanent NATO/US basis in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Scenario III
NATO/US forces have pulled out of Afghanistan, which has disintegrated into a southern and northern part. The southern part of Afghanistan has merged with Pakistan and a Sino-Pakistan-Arab-Iran-Russo alliance has emerged. Western influence in the Middle East has declined.
Which senario do you - the Gupshup forum members -think is likely and what can be alternative scenario?
Great post.
I hope for Scenerio II, but fear I is our current course. There is just so little good news from anything relating to Pakistan these days.