Pak Economy may grow 6% this year: ABN Amro

Considering what pathetic growth rates we had for much of the 90’s this is superb news. :k:

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_9-4-2004_pg5_3

Economy may grow by up to 6% this year: report

ABN Amro has forecast that the country’s economy is likely to grow by 5.5 percent to 6 percent in the current fiscal year. In its monthly economic report on Pakistan, the bank said overall GDP likely to be 5.5 to 6 percent, while major crops may decline from 5.8 percent last year to between 3 percent and 4 percent in this fiscal year. “The actual water availability for Rabi is now estimated to be substantially higher 29 percent than last year, while the rice and sugarcane plantation data suggest a nine percent and one percent likely increase over last fiscal year,” the report said. It said there would be a 17 percent increase in the wheat support price, while fertilizer off-take has improved by 15 percent this year. But the government has also revised upward its estimate of final cotton output from 10 million bales to 10.3 million bales this year. It said growth in large-scale manufacturing sector, electricity and gas may increase up to 10.4 percent, 12.5 percent and 7 percent respectively, while the construction sector is expected to increase up to 7 percent this year from 3.4 percent last year. The report said the country’s economy is powering full steam ahead and added that LSM sector output growth is at an all time record, roaring ahead at 15 percent (July-January fiscal year 2004). The full year expectation for expansion in LSM production has been revised to 10.5 percent to12.5 percent from a relatively modest 8 percent previously, it said.

It added exports are up 14 percent year to date driven by sharp gains in export earnings from cotton fabrics, knitwear and cotton yarn, while the imports have risen by a higher-than-projected 16 percent with non-oil, non-food imports rising 29 percent and capital goods by 24 percent. But the report said the country’s exports are threatened by the punitive anti-dumping action by the EU on bedwear exports. The 13.1 percent duty effective from March 2004, risk stalling exports in one of Pakistan’s largest and fastest-growing production, it added.The report said private sector credit offtake from banks has surged Rs 231 billion (till March 13), an all-time high. “This level represents a 24 percent increase over June 2003. Out of the total, consumer credit (including mortgage financing) is estimated at around Rs 35 billion, or 15 percent of total year to date disbursement,” it said. It said the agriculture sector performance is likely to come in as per the target of the government despite the setback to the cotton crop, an overall growth of around 4 percent for the year. In addition, the service sectors appear to be performing well, led by communication, finance and wholesale/retail trade. The real sector maintained its robust performance for the first seven months of fiscal year 2004 with an acceleration of momentum in key parameters.

from 1990 to 2000 it was 2.5 percent and every analysis/research on the subject I came across blamed on mismanagment by mega thieves.

Great news guys. I think if we can exterminate or exile all anti-state elements, the better off Pakistan will be. Economics is the remedy for a lot of our social ills, a strong performing Pakistan is not only vital to our defense but also critical to our greatest resource-- the people.

where's Imdad, I bet he will call this research paper by ABN Amro Bank a hoax of the Pakistani government.

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Bhadsha: *
where's Imdad, I bet he will call this research paper by ABN Amro Bank a hoax of the Pakistani government.
[/QUOTE]

Oh come on Bhadsha we all know the ever popular ISI forced ABN Amro to come up with these lies...

Dont count your eggs before they are hatched. Countries are already slapping QR's and TQR's and anti-dumping measures against our exports like its going out of style. We have lost our GSP with the EU which means all our products now get a 12% increase in tariffs and we lose some of the preferential quotas we had. Also the world economy is doing poorly and we are running against the tide. I would be very happy if we could get even a year more of such growth. But if the world economy does not pick up we are screwed.

^ CM, but as I understand the quotas are going to be done away with next year. The problem I see is that in verticals such as texxtile manuf...global share of countries like China and India (currently a laggard) reaping the greatest benefits per the WTO abolishment of quotas

Economies are built on long term sustainable industries. If the entente between India and Chiana nd Pakistan continues, I don't see why Pakistan cannot have BPO as a lead sector in a few years. We are going to see investments by Indian companies in Pakistan within two years to gain from the margin arbitrage. Global houses would follow as well.

We need ideas people, not cut and pastes.

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Bhadsha: *
where's Imdad, I bet he will call this research paper by ABN Amro Bank a hoax of the Pakistani government.
[/QUOTE]

Lol... :)

First the textiles agreement is teh biggest piece of crap i have seen. I have had a chance to read all the negotiations and the MFA to the present Agreement. Basically the US and EU decided and bullied everybody else.

Plus long term industries arent the way to develop for developing countries. Services are they key. All sorts of out sourcing, accounting, legal management consultings etc.

50% of Pakistans economy is services. That is alot. Developed countries it is even more.