**Scenario
Pakistan launch an surprise attack on India using the bulk of it's airforce and divisions based near the Indian border. While it's navy attempts to engage the INS in the Arabian Sea and secure its shipping lanes. **
ANALYSIS -- Air Battle
The Pakistani Airforce launch an attack (dawn at the very least as all their attack aircraft are day fighters only, A-5, F-6 and Mirage V's) on forward Indian air bases, headquarters and weapon storage facilities in an attempt to gain as much of an initial advantage in the air and over Indian ground forces as is possible.
One of the greatest problems that the Pakistanis would face would be to prevent detection of their force for as long as possible and then evade Indian SAM sites and air defence aircraft. This would be a very difficult task as they would be facing modern interceptors and air superiority fighters all with a look-down shoot-down capability and a BVR capability ( AA-10, AA-12 and Super 530D AAM's). Along with this they would face SAM systems based around the Akash SAM guided by a phased array radar, the SA-3 Goa, SA-6 Gainful, SA-8b Gecko, the S300 series and numerous hand held SAM's, as well as the ZSU-23-4 and Tunguska M1 self propelled AAA systems. Without effective jamming the Pakistani attack force would suffer serious losses, while the lack of an anti-radar capability will also limit their ability to permanently remove these threats. (Note:- other than the F-16 no other PAF aircraft has a credible ECM capability other than RWR's.)
While the initial attack would make some headway due to surprise, it is unlikely that once the initial surprise of the IAF has worn off that the PAF will be able to maintain any real air superiority for any length of time. I would expect that the initial superiority of the PAF over the battlefield to last no more than one maybe two days. This is due the lack of dedicated attack aircraft which can sustain an attack on Indian bases as well as the lack of an all weather attack capability other than the 38 F-16, however it is unlikely than the PAF would put their only modern fighter into a ground attack role when it would be required to counter the modern fighters of the IAF.
Currently the PAF have only 54 A-5C attack aircraft, this does not compare well against India's 89 Jaguars, 120 MiG 27 and over 50 MiG 23BN (an attack variant of the MiG-23). In order to reinforce their attack aircraft numbers the PAF will have to draw on their fighter stocks in particular the F-7, Mirage III and Mirage V (Note:- these are in the process of being upgraded with new avionics including radars). Another weakness in the PAF's attack fleet is the lack of a night attack capability with all their attack aircraft and fighter-bombers being day fighters only with the exception of the F-16 and to some extent the Mirage III. Another draw back of the A-5C is that it's main mission avionics is based on the SH-1J or ABS1A optical sight as does the F-6. This lack of a night attack and PGM capability will seriously damage the PAF's ability to maintain pressure on the IAF and the only way that Pakistan will be able to gain a initial air superiority is to maintain pressure on IAF airfields.
Without the ability to sustain intensive ground attack operations without weakening the air defence capabilities of the PAF, Pakistan would find itself in the unpalatable position of having to chose between not maintaining a complete air defence network and sustaining an attack on India or maintaining a complete air defence and giving the IAF extra time to recover and initiate a counter attack. Neither situation is totally acceptable as both require a gamble the first in that the PAF do not get caught short in their defence and the second in that giving the IAF breathing space will not result in a turning of the battle against them due to a lack of an offensive capability against the Indian Army. The Pakistani government has identified this problem and is planing the acquisition of 150 FC-1 fighter/attack aircraft this should go a long way to improving the PAF's offensive and defensive capabilities, Pakistan is also looking into the possibility of purchasing up to 80 Mirage 2000's or alike fighters. Although the FC-1 with only an 8g limit would still be inferior to the MiG-29, Mirage 2000, Su-30MKI and the LCA.
It can be expected that both the PAF and IAF will take serious losses, with the PAF suffering losses of 30-50% and that IAF losses of 15-25%. The major advantage that India has is that it currently has a far greater number of modern aircraft in comparison to Pakistan. Unlike the last war the two countries will not be equipped with aircraft of similar capabilities with the Indian fleet being based around the MiG-29, Mirage 2000H, Su-30MKI, Jaguar and MiG-27M (with 125 MiG-21's to be upgraded to the MiG-21-93 standard that will give it the capability to carry the AA-11 Archer, AA-10 Alamo and AA-12 Adder AAM's). While the PAF is based on the F-16 Block 15 OUC, F-7 (MiG-21F) and the F-6 (MiG-19S Farmer-C) carrying the AIM-9 Sidewinder.
The PAF also lack any BVR capability which would be vital in both escort and air defence, although Pakistan is thought to have acquired 500 AIM-7 Sparrow's the do not have a launch platform for them as the only F-16's capable of launching the AIM-7 is the F-16 Block 15 ADF of the USAF. Currently Pakistan is looking into purchasing a BVR weapon from Denel, to counter India's acquisition of the AA-12 'Adder'.
While there is the belief that Pakistan would receive support from Islamic countries, it is possible that this aid would not be substantial, but rather clandestine in nature. This is due to the fact that most of the Arab states are now equipped with American and European aircraft and would seriously damage their relations with the West were they to get involve in a foreign conflict. This could result in restrictions on military aid as occurred to Saudi Arabia when their F-15's had their bomb racks held in the US when Israel expressed concern. Secondly there has been a massive increase in tensions between Islamic states and Israel and also between Islamic states. With this in mind it is unlikely that any of these states would want to damage their own security to help someone else. Currently Iran and Afghanistan are on the verge of open conflict after the massacre of nine Iranian diplomats and several thousand civilian supporters of opposition forces, in such a war Pakistan would definitely get drawn in. It also must be remembered that there is extreme tension between the Shiite and Sunni sects across the Islamic world and any war between a mainly Shiite and Sunni country could result in a fracture in the Islamic world.
In spite of this it is still probable that Saudi Arabia may loan Pakistan an AWACS aircraft as Russia has previously done with the Tu-126 Moss. It is also probable that if Saudi Arabia were to send Pakistan an AWACS that they would also send along at least one squadron of F-15 interceptors as escort for the AWACS as well as to defend the AWACS in operations. While an AWACS if would be a massive improvement in Pakistan's air defence capability, it is unlikely that Saudi Arabia would send more than 1 and without an airborne refuelling system and because of post flight maintenance the AWACS would probably be limited to 1 flight per day (with 12 hours on patrol). It is also possible that the United Arab Emirates would provide help in the form of Mirage 2000's. Another potential vulnerability of the Pakistani air force is its dependence on ground controlled intercept's, any attacks on control towers, command and control centres and the use of communications jamming could cause significant problems to airborne units which would find themselves isolated and due to the lack of effective radars unable to engage the enemy. This type of tactic would be particularly effective at night as it would allow Indian fighters to engage Pakistani units at long range at relatively low risk.
ANALYSIS -- Sea battle
In it's past war's with India the PN has made the mistake of being caught in coastal waters at the outbreak of hostilities it can be assumed that the PNS has learnt from it's mistake and would attempt a breakout into the Arabian Sea in order to improve the survivability and strike capability against the INS and Indian merchant traffic.
The greatest problem facing the PN is the lack of air-support particularly in the area of fighter cover which leaves the fleet naked to air attack from Indian Jaguars and Sea Harries which are equipped with the Sea Eagle AShM with a range of 110km. The PN fleet also lacks any long range SAM capability and only has a rudimentary short range capability. With the mainstay of their fleet the Type 21 frigates equipped with the LY 60N SAM capability with a range of 13 km. The Type 21 frigates are also veterans of the Falklands War where 2 were lost to air attacks, this failure culminated in the selling of the class to Pakistan.
Although in theory the PN's best option would be to breakout into the Arabian Sea based on previous experience, it is quite probable that they will remain close to Pakistan (200-250km) to remain within range of PAF fighter cover. Without fighter cover the PN would be decimated by Indian air attacks which would be able to take missile shots at the PN fleet without any danger to themselves. If the PN were to break out into the Arabian Sea they would have only two choices, the first being to engage the Indian Navy which would result in heavy losses and the second being to seek refuge in a friendly country. For any navy it would be suicidal to go up against a navy equipped with a aircraft carrier without either a long range SAM capability or fighter cover, the same goes for the PN.
While the PN has a good submarine arm it is alone in its campaign against the Indian Navy and faces great opposition from Indian submarines namely the Kilo class which has earned the nickname "Blackhole" from NATO due to its low noise signature. This means that they will not be able to spend a great deal of time on the offensive. It can also be expected that the INS will maintain submarine cover for their Carrier group this will make it hazardous for PN submarines to engage the fleet. While Pakistani submarines are equipped with Sub-Horpoon AShM's they cannot be used at max. range without midcourse guidance, leaving the sub captains no choice but to close in on the Indian fleet to engage it. The Pakistani Navy will have to make a decision as to whether or not to engage the Indian fleet if it does succeed in breaking out into the Arabian Sea without engaging the Indian Fleet. Either way the engagement is unlikely to go well for the Pakistanis who will take serious losses to Indian naval Harriers and IAF Jaguars which would receive targeting information from the Tu-142 Bear or Il-38 May maritime patrol aircraft. While Pakistani maritime patrol aircraft would face severe fighter opposition in any attempts to locate the Indian Fleet and would find it difficult to escape detection due to the acquisition of three KA-31AEW's by India. This will also limit the effectiveness of the PAF Mirage III's that have been configured to carry the Exocet AShM which has a range of 50km which means that the launch aircraft would have to approach to approximately 45km before launching this would be a hazardous operation under the best of circumstances. While the usefulness of the Orion in attacking or conducting surveillance off the Indian fleet is unknown as they will be working without aircover and would face air opposition from Indian naval fighters. Without the ability to run or to fight they would be sitting ducks if detected.
At the end of the day the PN while being an effective service is not well enough equipped to defeat the INS in battle. While the INS will take losses to the Pakistani Navy the bulk of the Pakistani Navy would be destroyed if they launched a full scale engagement against the Indian Navy.
ANALYSIS -- Ground campaign
With the ground campaign for Pakistan to ensure surprise they would have to forgo a build-up of any sort and launch an attack using just their forward troops, as any build-up would be detected by India. A would also have to forgo any increased training or readiness level as those signs would keep of India has to the possibilities of an invasion as India has EW aircraft flying along the Indo-Pak border almost 24 hr. a day that would detect any increase in military radio traffic a tell tale give away of a build up.
Without any build-up the Pakistani army using surprise would gain the early advantage over India but advantage would not last very long as Indian superiority in numbers, namely a 2 to 1 advantage in men and tanks would allow it to gain the advantage in the battlefield. The Indian army would also be operating under significant aircover from the Indian Air Force and would have significant support from Air Force ground attack units. In contrast be Pakistani army could find itself under constant air attack from the Indian air force. The ability off the Indian air force to strike targets deep inside Pakistan with precision would also damaged the ability of the Pakistani army to reinforce their forward troops. The war would quickly breakdown into a stalemate with neither side making any real headway, short of outstanding tactics from one of the sides a quick resolution off the conflict would not be forthcoming. One of the tactics that could be used is a blitzkrieg strategy - where every time your forces encounter opposition ground attack units in are called in to eliminate or soften for the ground troops to engage, this tactic was used to great effect by the Germans in their conquering off Europe and by the Soviets in their conquering of the German army in the final part of W.W.II.
While the Pakistani army may be able to make some headway due to their initial surprise it is unlikely that they would be able to hold or even threaten to take large parts of Indian territory. The greatest danger to the Pakistani army is the large number of helicopters (300+) and transport aircraft (~200) that India has. This would allow India to place several thousand troops behind Pakistani lines, which would pose a major problem to the Pakistani Army which would have to deal with a large number of highly mobile troops operating behind enemy lines ( during W.W.II. the Russians managed to break an Operational Manoeuvre Group behind enemy lines in Dec. 1942 during the 13 days it was operational behind enemy lines it killed 11,000 men, destroyed 400 aircraft and caused the relocation of several German Divisions). On the other hand Pakistan does not have anywhere near the capability with 20 transport aircraft and 60 helicopters ranging from Bell 205's to SA 330J Puma's.
The other major problem that the Pakistani army has is that the bulk of it's MBT force are variants of the T-54/55 series, with just 320 T-80UD's. This does not compare well against India's 1800 Vickers MBT and 2000+ T-72M1's. While the T-72M1 did not fare well in the Gulf War, Indian T-72's will not be facing Abrams M1's or Challengers but rather variants of the T-54/55 series against which they can be expected to do quite well as can the Vickers MBT Mk. 3. The Pakistani army would also find itself under significant air attack without the modern SAM coverage that most armies now have. Pakistanis SAM coverage is improving with the development of the Anza 3 SAM which has the ability to engage targets at up to 45,000ft (reported) and Pakistan's MBT fleet is also expected to be rejuvenated with the development of the Al Khalid MBT.
In any Pakistani attack on India the focus of the attack would be Kashmir as they could expect assistance form the local militants as well as the fact that for some time now Pakistan has laid claim to Kashmir as part of Pakistan. With approximately 300,000 troops based in Kashmir any Pakistani attack would have to be made with 200,000-300,000 troops concentrated over as small a front as possible in order to give Pakistan local numerical superiority. But in order to take Kashmir, Pakistan would be left with 200,000-300,000 troops to protect itself against 500,000-600,000 Indian troops. Thus any gains in Kashmir would be off set through losses in southern Pakistan. For Pakistan it is a catch 22, in order to gain Kashmir they must be willing to sacrifice some ground in southern Pakistan, with the opposite applying to India. As commanders on both sides unwilling to give up any land the result would be a stalemate. Although if the war were to last long enough due to larger reserves India would eventually gain the advantage.
The danger is in the attempt to gain an advantage one of the sides may resort to the use of nuclear weapons which both countries tested recently, with Pakistan having between 8-12 nuclear weapons and India having between 70-100 nuclear weapons with both countries having a ballistic missile capability. With India having the Agni and Prithvi ballistic missiles which have a range of 2500km and 150/250km respectively. With Pakistan having the Hataf series and Ghauri missiles with ranges of 60km/600-800km and 1500km respectively. Although the Pakistani missiles are based on Chinese designs or are Chinese in origin which leaves a question mark over their accuracy, while the Prithvi has been reported to have attained an CEP of 10m in some tests through the use of a warhead similar to that of the RA-DAG warhead used by the Pershing II (Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter, April/May 1994, pg. 20). India has also ordered the 300V SAM from Russia which has a ABM capability and is thought to be superior to the Patriot system that protected Israel during the Gulf War. ( Note:- even if Pakistan were to begin with a nuclear first strike they could never destroy India's nuclear capability. With only 7-12 weapons Pakistan would only be able to attack 3-6 Indian targets. While they do have delivery systems they are yet to develop a hard target kill capability, thus enough Indian weapons would survive to allow for a massive retaliatory strike.)
Result.
At the end of the day it is highly unlikely that Pakistan would be able to hold onto any ground that they would capture in the initial attack, although this would not be so much because of the inability's of the Pakistani Armed Forces but rather the numerical and qualitative advantage in many areas of the Indian Armed Forces. The result would be that the push by Pakistan to become an Asian power would be severely curtailed as much of their air force and naval offensive capabilities would have been destroyed or reduced. While both sides would sustain severe losses the existence of either state would never come under threat, it is most likely that the war would end in a stalemate although it is highly probable that Pakistan would come off very badly. What is certain is that both countries but in particular Pakistan will have severally damaged their economies.
