North Korea, Iran weigh changes in policies toward United States

Looke like the easy victory of American forces in Iraq, has had impact around the world. The message is now clear. Don’t mess with the US.

http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascitystar/5621120.htm
North Korea, Iran weigh changes in policies toward United States
Star News Services

SEOUL, South Korea - North Korea and Iran – grouped with Iraq as an “axis of evil” by President Bush – suggested new interest Saturday in resolving issues with the United States.

As the war in Iraq winds down, North Korea and Iran have worried that they might be the next target of the United States.

In a policy shift, North Korea said Saturday that it would negotiate its nuclear program without sticking “to any particular dialogue format” if the United States changed its stance on the issue.

For six months North Korea has insisted on one-on-one talks with the United States. The United States has asserted that negotiations over the nuclear threat must involve North Korea’s neighbors: China, Japan, Russia and South Korea.

In Iran, Hashemi Rafsanjani expressed support Saturday for holding a referendum on restoring ties with the United States – a marked shift by the former president.

Rafsanjani openly has sided with hard-liners since stepping down in 1997 and still heads a powerful body that advises Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The shift by North Korea was expected to ease tension on the Korean Peninsula. Recent South Korea-U.S. war games and Washington’s decision to send additional long-range bombers to the region have stoked fears in North Korea of an imminent U.S. invasion.

The crisis erupted in October when U.S. officials said that North Korea admitted it had a clandestine nuclear program in violation of a 1994 agreement with the United States.

The United States and its allies stopped oil shipments to North Korea, which retaliated by moving to restart a nuclear plant and withdrawing from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

On Saturday, KCNA, the North Korean Central News Agency, quoted a Foreign Ministry spokesman as saying that if the United States was “ready to make a bold switchover in its Korea policy for a settlement of the nuclear issue,” North Korea would “not stick to any particular dialogue format.”

“North Korea seems to be saying they are ready to try a multilateral format,” said Scott Snyder, author of Negotiating on the Edge, about North Korean negotiating tactics. “The problem is that, given the mood of the moment, can the Bush administration take yes for an answer?”

State Department spokesman Philip Reeker said Saturday: “We have noted that statement with interest, and we expect to follow up through the appropriate diplomatic channels.”

A senior White House official said last week that pressure had been exerted on North Korea through the Chinese, among others, and that the administration had expected – because China is the largest aid provider to North Korea – that the government of Kim Jong Il would be likely to respond.

As recently as Friday, however, American officials said there still was activity at the Yongbyon nuclear complex, although no evidence that North Korea had begun converting its 8,000 nuclear fuel rods into weapons-grade plutonium.

North Korea’s shift may be a result of such diplomatic pressure from Russia and China, analysts said. On Wednesday, both nations, historic allies of North Korea, blocked the adoption in the U.N. Security Council of any statement critical of North Korea’s nuclear program.

On Friday, however, a top Russian official said that Moscow would reconsider its longstanding policy of opposing international sanctions against North Korea if the country developed nuclear arms.

South Korea’s new president, Roh Moo-hyun, is preparing for a series of trips to countries concerned about North Korea’s nuclear program.

With the Iraq war drawing to a conclusion far faster than many people in South Korea expected, Roh is advancing his trip to Washington by 10 days, arriving in mid-May. After visiting the United States, he plans to travel to China, Russia and Japan, he announced Saturday.

North Korea is petrified by the rapid U.S. victory in Iraq, Roh said Friday in an interview with The Washington Post.

In a nation littered with statues of Kim Il Sung, the founder of North Korea, there have been daily references in the news media to the attack on Saddam Hussein’s government in Iraq.

“Allowing inspections and disarming ourselves are like taking off our pants,” North Korea’s state-run Central TV said Friday. “The United States’ sinister design is not in inspections themselves but in using them to spread rumors of weapons of mass destruction and find an excuse for armed intervention.”

In Iran, Rafsanjani and his fellow hard-liners nervously have been watching U.S.-led forces take control of Iraq.

Rafsanjani said Saturday that “the problem of Iran-U.S. relations” should be resolved, either through a referendum or through a decision by the advisory body, the Expediency Council.

Either way, the final decision would have to be confirmed by Khamenei, the official Islamic Republic News Agency quoted Rafsanjani as saying.

Khamenei, who has backed the hard-liners who control most levers of government, has repeatedly rejected as “treason and stupidity” any talk about restoring ties with Washington, which were cut when militants stormed the U.S. Embassy in Tehran in 1979.

With polls showing greater public support for dialogue with the United States, reformists have been pushing for the question to be decided by referendum.

Reformers seeking political and social change in Iran’s Islamic government have been locked in a power struggle with hard-liners who control the judiciary, the military and powerful unelected government bodies. Reformers have the support of Rafsanjani’s successor, President Mohammad Khatami.

Iran’s leaders are in a heated debate over how to deal with the U.S. success in shattering Hussein’s regime in Iraq. Besides fearing that Iran could be next on America’s target list, Iran is concerned over finding itself squeezed by increased American power in the region, with pro-U.S. governments in Iraq to its west and Afghanistan to its east.

More than 200 political activists signed a petition calling on the hard-line judiciary to release all political prisoners, lift the closure of newspapers, and stop arbitrary disqualification of candidates in general elections as a way to avoid Iraq’s fate, Iran’s IRNA news agency reported Saturday.

“The way to avoid serious foreign threats, nullify the subject of foreign intervention and get out of the current (political) deadlock is to remove the obstacles in the way of national demands,” IRNA quoted the petition as saying.

With such intense hard-line opposition to opening up to Washington, Khatami has stopped short of backing reformist calls for a referendum, calling instead for an unofficial dialogue.

Rafsanjani is the highest-ranking official to suggest the referendum idea, and he appeared to be floating a trial balloon to gauge the reaction of his hard-line allies.

A poll conducted last year for a parliamentary committee showed 74 percent of Tehran residents in favor of dialogue with America. An enraged judiciary charged three prominent pollsters with selling classified information to institutes with alleged links to the CIA.

The New York Times and The Associated Press contributed to this report

It's good to see North Korea bulk and switch their position.

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by underthedome: *
It's good to see North Korea bulk and switch their position.
[/QUOTE]

You mean they

destroyed their 5000 tons of chemical and bio weapons
destroyed their nukes
detroyed their missiles

hehehehe dream on boy dream on even the best of spin will hardly scratch the surface.

The really difficult task will be of convincing Bush and team what diplomacy and dialouge means. The letter D will be a good start however.

If you put two people into a room who have two totally different viewpoints on an issue, they will argue their respective positions until the cows come home without moving closer toward the other's position. What makes people compromise is that they are either offered some benefit that motivates them to give up part or all of their position or they realize that the risk of losing something of value is high if they maintain their position. Diplomacy without the offer of a benefit or without the threat of risk of loss is mutual masturbation.

In the case of N. Korea, whatever benefits they received from their agreement to terminate their nuke program were not enough to dissuade them from secretly pursuing it. On the threat side, the US was viewed as a paper tiger without the resolve and nerve to carry out threats. Afghanistan and Iraq have very much changed that perception of the US around the world. There cannot be a country or leader who doubts that in the appropriate circumstance the US will act militarily even if such act is carried out 100% unilaterally. IMO, N. Korea is far more likely to be willing to change its conduct in exchange for receiving benefits now that it knows that if it doesn't do so, it is under threat. Thus, diplomacy is now far more likely to work with N. Korea than it was a couple months ago.

In the case of Iran, I believe its leadership and people have always understood the value of the benefits it can receive from normalizing relations with the US. As was/is the case with China, I think we've just got to accept that the pace of reform and progress will be incremental and slow because of the nature of its institutions. I truly do not believe that there is any sensible person in the US that foresees military conflict with Iran anywhere on the near term horizon.

Hmm. Now N. Korea gives up on its insistence that talks with the US be only bilateral. They are agreeing to trilateral talks with China. From Reuters, “The relatively quick U.S.-led victory over Iraq appears to have played an important role in prompting North Korea to retreat from its insistence on bilateral talks with Washington…”

The full story. http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=2579577

What is China's role?

Kim will relinquish his nukes, bio, chemical weapons along with his long range missiles... LOL..... Dream on....

He still scores much better then monkey in the whitehouse who said he will not talk to the rogue and the next day Bill Richardson was licking Kims boots.....

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Rhia: *
What is China's role?
[/QUOTE]

China is the main supporter of NK it supplies 70 to 80 percent of the food and fuel... If China wants they can pull the plug on Kim in a heart beat.. Thats why is begging China to do something coz the chemical, bio, nuke and missile techology also came from China.

But chances are it will be cosmetic coz if Kim destroys his WMD he will sign a his own death warrant like Saddam. needs a face saver thats all....

Thanx Abdali :) I understand. But why was NK insisting on bilateral talks with the US excluding China?

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Rhia: *
Thanx Abdali :) I understand. But why was NK insisting on bilateral talks with the US excluding China?
[/QUOTE]

Don't know the background and I really don't know why the was crowing that he will not tlak to the rogue. I think China is just there so the can say its not bileteral...

For some reason, the N. Koreans have insisted that negotiations and discussions occur only between the US and N. Korea, with no other country involved. The US has insisted that this is a regional issue that involves China, Japan, South Korea and some others. The US has staked out a position that it will not negotiate alone with N. Korea and that the talks need to be multi-lateral. The N. Koreans, until now, have refused to talk unless talks are limited to the US and N. Korea.

I don't really know why the N. Koreans staked out that position.

^ The concession NK makes is by getting not Japan, not SK, but China (NK’s principle backer) involved. While what US wants is Japan and SK take active roll or hide behind the regional powers.

What US needs to do is to send in some GI Joes or lobe some Tomahawks like it did at Suddan and destroy NKs WMD infrastructure. BUT for that US needs lots of balls which simply do not exist w.r.t. NK. Little Kim will never disarm or he will sign his death warrants like Saddam, Saddam made the same mistake and paid the ultimate price.

U.S. Considers Canceling Beijing N.Korea Talks
2 hours, 40 minutes ago Add World - Reuters to My Yahoo!

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States is considering canceling talks expected to be held in Beijing next week on ending North Korea (news - web sites)'s suspected nuclear weapons program ** after Pyongyang said it had begun reprocessing spent fuel rods, a Bush administration official said on Friday. **

The senior official said the United States had no indication as yet that North Korea had begun reprocessing the spent fuel rods, which could allow it to make several nuclear weapons, but he said it was possible Pyongyang had done so and the United States would not yet know.

“Whether the talks go forward, that’s not decided. There is active consideration to canceling them,” said the official, who spoke on condition he not be identified. “It is an accurate statement as of the moment to say we don’t know of any reprocessing but it’s possible that it’s begun and we just haven’t determined it yet.”