After the latest Gallup Pakistan survey, I have virtually lost interest in these exercises, but the new IRIS survey has a total different story to tell. Here it is:
https://fbcdn-sphotos-g-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-prn1/164954_170318619793991_630085347_n.png
Re: New survey pitches PML-N-PTI neck and neck
These kind of surveys do not hold much value in the kind of elections and political system we have. If we had a presidential system where the president is directly elected through popular vote, these might be meaningful. The sample size (3.5k) is not large enough for the number of voters we have anyways. Surveys within constituencies hold more value.
For example, lets see they put PML(N) at 38% and PTI at 37%. Now lets assume that from each constituency, PML(N) gets 38% votes and PTI gets 37%. Effectively, even after getting substantial number of votes, PTI would still have no seats in the parliament.
Re: New survey pitches PML-N-PTI neck and neck
A picture is worth a thousand words (or surveys in this case).
Looking at the pictures of all the jalsas that IK has been having vs. all the jalsas that Sharif's have had so far, its pretty evident who the people are supporting.
Re: New survey pitches PML-N-PTI neck and neck
At this stage, there is no need of such surveys, as they are not realistic, and almost never make sense. The situation on the ground is clearly different from what is portrayed in any of these surveys.
They are merely being used as psychological weapons, nothing else.
Re: New survey pitches PML-N-PTI neck and neck
it's evident for a long time that the elections would be between PMLN and PTI. The elections are near hence these surveys don't matter any more.