New Energy Policy: Govt. to end black out in 3 years..

Excellent energy policy under the circumstances if this published report is correct..

  1. Captive power plants will be phased out.. I am crying for last 2 years in this forum the logic of giving Rs. 500 billion subsidy to these inefficient gas fired captive plants when on the other hand Pepco is making a loss of more than Rs. 500 billion.

  2. Electricity price will be increased to Rs. 14.70.. doing away with Rs. 270 billion subsidies. Believe me if they save this amount from power losses the same amount will be saved from interest payment due to lowering of interest rates which will be the reward of declining Fiscal Deficit from it’s current level of 9% of GDP..

  3. Policy decision to shift 70% energy mix to hydel.. it will go a long way if we are actually able to implement this policy.. for the long term prosperity of the country.

Over all… All my concerns which I have been voicing for so many years have been addressed in this energy policy.

The actual implementation of this policy can do wonders to our economy.. Let’s keep our fingers crossed and wish them luck… This is not just a plan.. It’s a viable plan.. which will finally unwind 2 of Musharraf’s worse decisions which led to the bankruptcy of our country.. Captive plants and CNG for transport sector..

New energy policy: Govt to end blackouts in three years – The Express Tribune

New energy policy: Govt to end blackouts in three years
By Zafar BhuttaPublished: June 29, 2013

ISLAMABAD: The PML-N government’s much-publicised new energy policy envisages an end to power outages within three years besides phasing out electricity subsidies for all but domestic consumers using up to 300 units a month, The Express Tribune has learnt.
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif wrapped up consultations on the energy policy at a high-level meeting on Friday. A draft of the policy will be submitted to him for formal approval. The draft will also be tabled before the Council of Common Interest (CCI) and the consent of the provinces will be sought before it is implemented.
According to sources, the prime minister is expected to unveil the energy policy ahead of his scheduled visit to China. The move will send a good signal to Chinese investors and lure them into investing in Pakistan’s power sector.

Currently, 13.5 million out of the total 20.5 million power consumers in Pakistan are using 300 units per month. “Under this plan, the power subsidy will no longer cover 40% of consumers, saving the national exchequer Rs270 billion according to the current electricity rate of Rs14.70 per unit,” an official told The Express Tribune.
The new policy also envisages increasing power generation from 12,200 megawatts to 26,800 megawatts and reducing average electricity rates from Rs14.70 to Rs10 per unit by shifting the burden from thermal to hydel power plants and switching to cheaper alternative fuel such as coal.
Currently,** the share of hydel power in the total energy mix is hardly 30%. The policy aims to boost its share to 70% by building both large and small dams and carrying out some other initiatives to increase generation from 23,000 MW to 34,824MW.**
Coal-fired, run-of-the-river and biomass power projects will also be launched on a priority basis to improve the energy mix. Efficient plants will receive fuel on a priority basis as well to reduce the cost of power. Older inefficient thermal plants, meanwhile, will be converted to coal.
Under the policy, the government also plans to phase out CNG usage and captive power plants to divert gas supply to efficient power plants in a bid to further reduce costs. Captive plants are among the most inefficient plants, consuming around 450 million cubic feet of gas per day (mmcfd). CNG consumers, on the other hand, account for 400 mmcfd consumption. Gas will be diverted from these sectors by raising prices.

Uniform prices for all gas consumers except for domestic ones will be implemented to end cross subsidy. Presently, gas consumers enjoy an annual Rs45 billion subsidy – a major concern for multilateral donors. The government plans to reduce unaccounted for gas (UFG) in order to make more gas available to the power sector. The well-head price of gas will be enhanced as well to attract investment in the sector. The government also plans to focus on the exploration of shale and tight gas.
According to sources, the government will task the heads of power and gas distribution companies to reduce losses and improve operations. The heads who fail to achieve the target will be replaced, they added.
Power and gas companies will also be unbundled into small distribution companies to reduce losses and improve service delivery. Transmission and distribution losses will be reduced from 36% to 16% by controlling power theft. The policy also recommends action against bill defaulters within a 60-day period to help clear circular debt.
The government plans to expedite the import of 1,100 megawatts from Iran, 1,000 megawatts from Central Asian states and 500 megawatts from India to bridge the electricity shortfall. It also aims to focus on exploiting coal reserves in Thar.
The new policy also seeks to control the theft of furnace oil and reduce transport costs by laying down new pipelines. At present, furnace oil worth roughly $200 million is stolen every year.
A performance contract will be signed between generation companies and Pakistan State Oil to ensure timely payment of oil supply bills. PSO – whose current major supplier is Kuwait Petroleum Corporation – will be directed to purchase oil on a tender basis instead of purchasing it from a single supplier to reduce costs.
In an official statement on Friday, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said the new energy policy will be a panacea for all of the country’s power woes. “People and economy have suffered badly at the hands of the crippling power crisis and it is high time that prudent and consistent policies were pursued to come out of this morass,” it stated.
Published in The Express Tribune, June 29th, 2013.

Re: New Energy Policy: Govt. to end black out in 3 years..

Whats the price/unit of electricity at the moment? and how will the ordinary people be able to pay the bills if they have electricity for the full 24 hours?

Pakistan's problems are two folds, the electricity generated is amongst the costliest in the world and then the people dont have the purchasing power to pay for it. This could increase kunda system...

Re: New Energy Policy: Govt. to end black out in 3 years..

A very aggressive policy on paper. Switching to hydel is good, but that is a long term project, so on a national scale, I dont see that happening in 3 years or even 5 years. But nonetheless, it is a good step forward.

However, sadly enough, there is no change in the IPP agreements regarding tariff structures. The owners of the IPPs voted down any change in that, and the govt in the interim, will continue to pay exorbitant amounts based on generational capacity, rather than power produced. It is also being said that this amount will be forfeited from the NFC amount for each province. This smells very bad. Business lobbies have always had their way with things when PML-N is in power.

Re: New Energy Policy: Govt. to end black out in 3 years..

Let's not start criticism just for the sake of it. Like I said the plan is a viable one.. Lot will depend on execution. Let's give them a chance to effectively implement this excellent plan.

1) Right now we are facing Rs. 600 billion power sector losses. 270 billion will be recovered from doing away with subsidies which will come from tariff increment.

2) Rest of the loss has to be covered from prioritizing the gas allocation to national grid power generation sector.. and controlling pilferage and theft. Making the distribution sector more efficient will also contribute to wipe out these losses. some of the measures are long term.. some are short term. Diverting gas to IPPs by phasing away CNG and Captive Plant sector can be done in the short term which will significantly reduce the power generation cost for Pepco. Pilferage control has to start immediately although full control of the situation will take some time. Revamping distribution system needs a lot of capital investment and has to be carried out in phases.

3) Presently the industry and individuals are paying much higher cost due to stand by diesel generation. We import 5 billion dollars worth of diesel generators and their spares per annum. If electricity is provided from the grid uninterrupted..

Re: New Energy Policy: Govt. to end black out in 3 years..

^ For me the most important would be to divert gas to the IPP's. It would be interesting to see how the government tackles the powerful CNG/Captive mafia.

As far as such a big increase in tarrifs is concerned I have my reservations on it, as it would have an impact on all every day usage items. The average bill that people are getting these days (in summers) is around 10000 Rs (with around 12 hours load shedding). Doubling the tarrifs and availability of electricity for 24 hours would increase the bill to around 30000 Rs. One should shudder to think if the same guy lives on rent. The salary of professionals (most of them) is around 60000, therefore the bills would comprise upto 50 % of their salaries. The affect would be even more severe for those people earning lesser.

Re: New Energy Policy: Govt. to end black out in 3 years..

In fact it's totally an anti lobby policy. Captive Power plant operators have a very strong lobby with Aptma as the front runner. They get electricity for less than Rs. 6/ per unit through cheap gas generation. The total subsidy to this sector is more than Rs. 500 billion per annum. The other lobby is the CNG station owners who have bribed the government billions for the gas supply.

IPPs now get payments without producing electricity. Most of them show enhanced capacities compared to their actual generating capacities. How will they benefit if the have to actually produce electricity and get payments on their actual supplies. When fuel differential will be passed on to the consumer these IPPs will have to actually generate electricity and supply to national grid..

Re: New Energy Policy: Govt. to end black out in 3 years..

I think the government should go for diverting gas to the IPP's as a priority, doing that would reduce the cost of generation. And then they can raise the tarrif's to a bearable limit to ensure the power sector comes to profit (with least possible impact on the population at large). Otherwise hyper inflation would force the people to throw the government out before the three years are up.

Re: New Energy Policy: Govt. to end black out in 3 years..

A BIG LOL

Re: New Energy Policy: Govt. to end black out in 3 years..

70% hydel? Dam kahan lagain gay raiwand main? I think that majority of Pakistani power production is thermal right now, right?

Re: New Energy Policy: Govt. to end black out in 3 years..

The question is:

Do we have any agreement for Kalabagh dam?

I don't agree with that. Pakistan needs to do what is needed, use the resources we have for our benefit, if we have huge coal reserves then we need to utilize coal for our power generation as this might be quicker to deploy than hydel power generation in 3 years.

Re: New Energy Policy: Govt. to end black out in 3 years..

how is this bad? when provincial govts do not act seriously to collect bills, should Pakistan as a state keep on paying for provincial govts' inefficiencies and corruption? KP and Sindh fro example are worst in recollection of bills for the electricity used. i think this will force them to act.

i speak from my personal experience, in the area where we live in Karachi (Landhi) KESC had to disconnect power of about 2-3 thousand homes, reason? they simply do not pay the bill. Those who pay the bill also suffer because of these people. It was not the case that they were not able to pay, no, not at all, every single person paid off their bill within 3 days of disconnection of power, and then KESC restored the supply.

Re: New Energy Policy: Govt. to end black out in 3 years..

Kala Bagh is not the only dam waiting to be built, there are many more. that PTI guy Inam has done a wonderful job creating awareness about Soan Dam. I think PTI should raise it in National Assembly. I can imagine that Soan Dam would have been a must-do-project of PTI if it had made govt in center, but now when they have not, they should still push for it for the betterment of the country.

Neelam Jehlam (950MW) is supposed to be up and running in next 1.5 year.

Re: New Energy Policy: Govt. to end black out in 3 years..

What is a “captive” power plant?

I think if the govt can secure a reasonable amount of capacity, the GDP should rise a point or two without much of a hassle. I mean the country is growing at 3 percent without electricity!

Re: New Energy Policy: Govt. to end black out in 3 years..

Kalabagh dam is not the only waiting dam to be built, correct, but if built it would be biggest electricity producing dam i.e. 3,600 MW

Re: New Energy Policy: Govt. to end black out in 3 years..

KBD could always be build as a carry over dam that can produce electricity.

Re: New Energy Policy: Govt. to end black out in 3 years..

That is bad because its not the bill amounts that are being forfeited from the NFC...its the payment amount for the IPPs that will be forfeited.

Public is billed according to usage. IPPs are paid according to their production capacity. So essentially, even if there is 100% bill recovery from the public, it will most likely be less than the amount payable to IPPs. That means, the amount deducted from NFCs will almost always be more than what the actual bills for the province are.
My point was specifically about IPP tariff agreements.

Re: New Energy Policy: Govt. to end black out in 3 years..

that is right, and personally i think KBD is over politicized. It will be among the largest electricity producing dam but we shouldn't wait for a consensus to be reached on this (which is very difficult), instead start working on other dams and get back to it when our people get back to their senses.

Re: New Energy Policy: Govt. to end black out in 3 years..

i thought they will deduct the amount previously billed, as in post-paid scenario. if that's what you are saying i agree this is wrong.

i don't think there is any way we could get out of these IPP contracts, someone else mentioned earlier in this forum that BB has tied this knot for good 30 years! probably another 9-10 years more of this public loot

Re: New Energy Policy: Govt. to end black out in 3 years..

Regarding Hydel energy..

It's sad a country with mountains and plains with a potential of generating 250,000 MW of hydel electricity is still thinking if they should make dams. Why dams are better than any other form of generation in long term.. all other type of power generation projects have a life of maximum 20 years.. and technology becomes obsolete much before that.. The cost of generation increases with every passing year with a decrease in efficiency of the generation plant.. on the other hand the cost of generation reduces with every passing year after as the interest cost comes down.. and the life span of a dam is close to 100 years..

Why Kalabagh dam.. It is the most cost effective dam. In fact it's a natural dam where we have to just put a wall and derive enormous benefits.. water storage, flood control, and power generation.

Re: New Energy Policy: Govt. to end black out in 3 years..

Regarding Coal:

First Pakistan coal is of very low quality.. it remains to be explored how it can viably be used for power generation. As on today.. the viability of such power generation is under question. Secondly financing is an issue for coal based power generation as international lenders don't finance coal power generation.. thirdly the coal generation plants also have depreciating efficiency and increasing cost during the life span of such plants as other power generation methods.. except hydel generation..

For our country.. coal should not the first choice to be preferred over hydel generation. We are lucky that we have mountains and plains and a lot of water flows down stream. For such a country.. hydel generation is a natural choice..