Re: NA-246 bi-elections: Apr. 23 : Karachi Areas Azizabad, F.B. Area , F.C. Area
A balanced article on the importance of NA-246 by-election by Talat Hussain.
Why should one by-poll matter in a country where politicians, judges, journalists, generals and the public – for different motivations – are habitually scornful of results of full-scale elections? There are several reasons to take Karachi’s NA-246 electoral exercise seriously; three truly standout.
The constituency has remarkable social and economic diversity, comprising upscale neighbourhoods as well as the lower-end of the middle class. Besides being urban, it has swaths of migrants who came here during Partition, and a significant presence of the Aga Khani and Memon communities. Other strains of Shia vote are also present here in good numbers.
It has been a traditional stronghold of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement. At least this is what a fleeting glance at the Election Commission’s records show: the MQM has held complete sway over this area for over three decades. While it occasionally got some competition from the conservative vote-bank represented by the Jamaat-e-Islami, generally it never had to do much to romp home. Over time as the party’s hold over Karachi turned into a stranglehold and its leadership gave in to the temptation of turning political weight into electoral hegemony, the constituency showed some bizarre spectacles including its candidates polling the highest number of votes in the shortest possible casting time against opponents whose fortunes remained dismal and desperate.
Complaints abound about the way the MQM retains its influence over the areas from where it gets its mandate. These range from intimidation to outright threats to manipulation of the voting system. Its sector commanders leave no room for dissent to emerge in any organised form. Knocking down the opposition is what the MQM’s leadership has become notorious for. It is hard to quantify the extent to which this axe-the-opponent factor contributes to the party’s super ascendency in its strongholds. Those who compete against the MQM say it is the only strength the party has; those who are favourably inclined towards the party disagree and say its popularity is unquestionable. Regardless of these conflicting views, there is no denying the fact that the MQM is both heavy-handed and high-handed in its political conduct. It jealously guards its power and has zero-tolerance for anyone challenging it.
The spate of recent revelations about the dark deeds of its militants aren’t really revelations: these were all things said and whispered all across Pakistan except that no one dared put them out so bluntly as has happened recently. With the thickening shadows of UK money-laundering and murder of Imran Farooq (who contested and won from NA-246) cases hovering over Altaf Hussain, the party is faced with its most serious existential challenge. With state institutions’ protection gone, its militant wing neutralised, and the once completely pliant media now defiant (including those who till yesterday were queuing up to catch a glimpse of Altaf Hussain, and routinely called him a saviour), the MQM’s only hope to come up for air is to remain politically relevant and legitimate. This is exactly what a victory in the upcoming by-polls can do for the party.
Having being defined as a group that conducts politics through the barrel of the gun, the MQM now has to establish that its real value is in its rank and file’s commitment to whatever the party stands for. It also has to prove through the ballot box that the ‘we love you Bhai’ refrain that has been shouted out from Azizabad thousands of times isn’t bogus; that it does actually reflect a true sentiment for Altaf Hussain that outsiders cannot understand.
The MQM’s tale of persecution that its leaders are peddling outside Pakistan in world capitals will also get a boost if the party wins the elections in a significant way. Its representatives have recently been arguing at different forums that all the cases of murder and mayhem are a stunt that Pakistan’s formidable army-intel combine has pieced together to break up the party.
However, it needs to be kept in mind that for the MQM a marginal victory in this election will not do the trick. Even if the opponent is to lose by a few thousand votes, and if the MQM’s victory depicts appreciable loss of votes, the party’s political fortunes will not be helped much. Loss of votes in a 90-centred constituency means the party is decidedly losing appeal and sympathy in its most critical hour of absolute need.
It would not be surprising if the MQM were to boycott the by-polls if it senses that the trends are going against its calculations; but then sitting out the electoral competition will be like conceding the match – an option no better or worse than losing it. Breifly, the NA-246 poll is a matter of political life and death for the MQM. Short of an emphatic win in a fairly-contested election, it is hard to see how the party will loosen the tightening noose of opposition around its political and organisational neck.
The second reason that makes this election exceptionally important is the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s hope of creating a non-falsifiable electoral claim to being a true national political party. While political meetings, dharnas, numbers in jalsas are important tools to make claims of popularity, what turns slogans into reality is verifiable numbers at the polls. In the 2013 elections the PTI as a party did show enormous electoral promise across the country. However, later dharna politics and Imran Khan’s Punjab-driven desires wiped Karachi off from the party’s radar. Now the party is getting another opportunity to ride the tide it had missed on account of messed-up priorities.
A victory or a close contest in NA-246 would mean the true arrival of the party in the mainstream of power politics. It would rekindle grand hopes and give unstoppable momentum to the party cadre in the province and show them that their moment has finally come. Conversely, a loss by a significant margin would dampen their spirits and raise questions about the party’s ability to swing the best of odds decisively in its favour.
Other than last week’s events in Karimabad, any realistically drawn-up list of advantages in the present circumstances would put the PTI far ahead of the MQM. The PTI is on a roll; the MQM is getting rolled back. If this cannot be a formula for victory nothing else will be.
The third reason for treating NA-246 elections as extraordinarily important is the establishment’s high stakes. The MQM has lost its equation with the Pakistani establishment. The glory days of endless support (whose biggest patrons happened to be Gen Ziaul Haq and Gen Pevez Musharraf besides a long list of intelligence chiefs) have now faded into a dark night of hostility. The mighty of our land have decided that the mighty of Karachi must fall.
That does not necessarily mean that the case that is being built against Altaf Hussain’s MQM has no merit; it could well be very strong and empirically established. All it means is that while previously the MQM could do anything and get away with it, now it is being made to face its past by the establishment and that is a terrible thing to deal with. In these circumstances the MQM winning NA-246 through means fair or foul just does not fit into the policy framework that is being administratively enforced. It is not much of a clean up if the party gets to re-enter the orbit of legitimacy through an electoral exercise, no matter how small.
If the MQM wins the seat it will use this as a hammer to destroy all state allegations of the party’s leaders being little more than murderous thugs worthy of jails and gallows than votes and garlands. This makes the NA-246 by-poll not just an electoral exercise. It is an unusual national event with far-reaching consequences.
The writer is former executive editor of The News and a senior journalist with Geo TV.
