Muslim world: prospects for future growth

Society Pakistan & World Affairs
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Re: Muslim world: prospects for future growth

Simmons is supposed to have a new book out, I have not seen it yet, but he lays out his case that the biggest Saudi oil fields are failing, and no new discoveries have replaced them. He actually presented on the same forum as ARAMCO, and ARAMCOs response essentially was, "look how much of Saudi Arabia is untapped". Of course they presented no indication that there is anything other than sand, but they had a great, "Don't worry, we have plenty".

So the question is, without oil, what will Muslim countries do? How will they employ theri people? The only cogent business plan I have see is Emirates Air, which is trying to establish itself as an air hub. Obviously some of the Gulf countries are also establishing themselves as banking centers, but other than that, not a lot of business dynamics...

I sense a disturbance in the force..
I sense a disturbance in the force..
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Re: Muslim world: prospects for future growth

Firstly, majority of muslim countries do not have oil or major natural resources. Privatization of gov't controlled assets in places where the asset value is akin to a fire sale is a meaningless exercise. When carlyle invests in China it is not because they see a return in 1 yr or 3 years or even 7 years..but they know there is a return. No such paradigm exists in the majority of the muslim world. Whatchya gonna do about it!!!!!!

textile manufacturing...gone...IT services...gone...BPO...gone...pharma..forget about it...auto, financial services, healthcare, biotech...all out of reach..where is the pot of gold and how does jihad help?

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Re: Muslim world: prospects for future growth

PD_

Man u hv some serious issues to settle with the muslim community in general, the word muslim gets u to ovulate like crazy. Get over it dude.

PD & OG,
Yes, Muslim nation states have some serious thinking and strategizing to do to prepare for the next hundred years ie for their future generations. However, not all is lost and remember its the darkest before dawn arrives.

  1. Oil economies are comfortable for the next 50years atleast. Oil is not going to finish tomorrow or even in the next ten years. Productions may peak in Saudi Arabia but u have plenty to keep economies functioning for the next 50years.
  2. Other than oil, there is natural gas. Qatar, Iran, Central Asia, Egypt, Bangladesh (new discoveries yet to be tapped), Indonesia and for domestic use Pakistan are rich in natural gas.
  3. Agriculture. Countries like Pakistan are rich in agriculture which forms backbone of their economies. Being idealy situtaed next to Chindia, a growing population base with rising income levels means increased intake of foods that sud translate into much brighter prospects for ag based economies.
  4. Removal of trade barriers under WTO sud benefit countries like Pakistan/bangladesh who have created a critical base of textile manufacturing.
  5. Excess cash/capital. Last 5years has seen capital being shifted to resource based economies, away form the service/industrial based growth economies. Where will this excess capital be deployed? Most likely in those regions where first of all principle is protected, then longerterm geo-strategic positionings will determine capital investments. Early trends are pointing towards rich Muslim states looking for investments either in their own countries or in other muslim countries ie pakistan, Sudan, Turkey, Egypt, UAE-Saudi. Also, cross border investments also means other than transfer of capital sharing of other resources in particular human capital.

In a nutshell, dont sell muslim states down the drain so quickly. A similar pessimistic scenario can very easily be made for India or China backed with very sound economic, political and ecological arguments. Thing is dudes, who the fk cares what happens in 50years cause we all will be dead by then or so fkng old only one getting a lift or ovulated will be PD whenever he hears the name 'muslim'.....tell me what u expect in the next 5years and we can then make some real bets....

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Re: Muslim world: prospects for future growth

Prove me wrong, rather than uttering woe is me nonsense and casting aspersions as to my feelings towards muslims. Tell me why you think I am wrong. Tell me where in what I have written above in numerous posts I have erred in my posits. Sticking your head in the sand is a contemporary muslim virtue…it might hurt to hear that…you can call me whatever you want…but you have no idea about what my feelings, efforts, ideas and friendships are wihtin this community.

More visions of sugarplums…darkest before dawn? How about dusk before everlasting midnight.

Really? Care to tell me why the Saudi per capita income is 1/3rd of what is was in 1982 on a ppp basis. Why? don’t give me half assed postulates grounded in wishful thinking…tell me about actionable steps. How do you turn around an economy which is so grossly mishandled, a people who have been so futile at managing their resources that wihtin on egeneration they have dessimated their wealth generation.

Outside of bangladesh and central asia, nothing is novel as a discovery in any other country. And in those countries mentioned, their ability to monetize the assets is nil. OS the question begs, what are the people doing to take advantage of this.

LOL!!! Compare the hectare production between INdia and Pakistan and CHina. India is a net supplier of food grains not a consumer. Growth rates for population is higher in Pak than in India or china.

Really? A level playing field means what exacty? Pakistan will compete with China? India? in textiles and consumer goods exports? drugs are haram..don;t do them.

^ what the heck are you talking about? Protecting principal is the thesis of any investment. It is not a novel concept. More investment happen in India from Dubai than form Dubai to Pakistan. Nothing will change. Rich muslim states are not idiots, nominal showcasing of putting a billion here or there doesn;t a trend make. Do you know where BRIC funds get almost a quarter of their capital, Gulf states. I know, I have started three of these funds. Rich arabs want to protect their capital not lose it down a siht hole. Remember, oil is a fleeting commodity, arabs (rich ones) like to build gerenational wealth. 7 yr lock ups is not uncommen in an emerging market opprtunity fund.

I will live to be a hundred, so it does matter. My kids will live much longer than that. See life for some people is a boon not a curse or a wait station to virgins in heaven. It is the mentality you live your life with, collectively as a people, 5/6th of humanity is worried less about whether interest is haram and working on taking advantage of the $1.7 trillion ABS opportunity.

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Re: Muslim world: prospects for future growth

that is almost touching ( no pun intended)

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Re: Muslim world: prospects for future growth

"Prove me wrong, rather than uttering woe is me nonsense and casting aspersions as to my feelings towards muslims. Tell me why you think I am wrong. Tell me where in what I have written above in numerous posts I have erred in my posits. Sticking your head in the sand is a contemporary muslim virtue...it might hurt to hear that...you can call me whatever you want...but you have no idea about what my feelings, efforts, ideas and friendships are wihtin this community."

Relax yaar, this was just an observation based on your persistent critique of anything to do with the muslas.

"More visions of sugarplums...darkest before dawn? How about dusk before everlasting midnight. "

You see the glass half empty, I see it half full.....

"Really? Care to tell me why the Saudi per capita income is 1/3rd of what is was in 1982 on a ppp basis. Why? don't give me half assed postulates grounded in wishful thinking...tell me about actionable steps. How do you turn around an economy which is so grossly mishandled, a people who have been so futile at managing their resources that wihtin on egeneration they have dessimated their wealth generation."

Iam surprised ur sticking with that argument, u of all the ppl sud know why. Inflation adjusted oil prices till 1999 were in a constant downward spiral or flat in nominal terms, except for the occasional spikes. Iam not a great fan of Saudi's, but to be fair, 1980's they were financing Saddams war against Iran, Pak/Amerikee war in Afghanistan and so many other projects. Then on top of that 1991 they had Gulf War I, who do u think financed that war? To top their defence expenditures they were supposed to be the swing producers, thus preventing oil prices from spiking higher. Ofcourse gros mismanagment, corruption and beyond means princes added to tehir woes. By the way, Saudi per capita income is what, $7,500 in 2004, right? Whats it like in India? How much growth do u think they need and for how many years to just come upto Saudia?

"Outside of bangladesh and central asia, nothing is novel as a discovery in any other country. And in those countries mentioned, their ability to monetize the assets is nil. OS the question begs, what are the people doing to take advantage of this."

R u sure u want to stick with this point? Cause there is plenty of proof how Egypt, Qatar have monetized their gas fields courtesy Apache in Egypt and Exxon in Qatar.

"LOL!!! Compare the hectare production between INdia and Pakistan and CHina. India is a net supplier of food grains not a consumer. Growth rates for population is higher in Pak than in India or china."

Even better. Agreed Pak per hectare yield is not good, but then again doesnt that mean more upside potential? Things are already put in place, Pakistan is moving towards improving its yield. India has a population of 1B add to that China 1.4B, both have improving living of standards relative to Pakistan. So who do u think will be needing more food intake? Ofcourse, India and China. Population growth rate difference doesnt really matter when u r dealing with rising income levels in nations which are 9x larger than the poorer country.

"Really? A level playing field means what exacty? Pakistan will compete with China? India? in textiles and consumer goods exports? drugs are haram..don;t do them."

Wakew wakee, Pakistan is already competing with Chindia, nuthing new for them. Dont hide behind the feel good hype of Chindia doesnt suite u.

" what the heck are you talking about? Protecting principal is the thesis of any investment. It is not a novel concept. More investment happen in India from Dubai than form Dubai to Pakistan. Nothing will change. Rich muslim states are not idiots, nominal showcasing of putting a billion here or there doesn;t a trend make. Do you know where BRIC funds get almost a quarter of their capital, Gulf states. I know, I have started three of these funds. Rich arabs want to protect their capital not lose it down a siht hole. Remember, oil is a fleeting commodity, arabs (rich ones) like to build gerenational wealth. 7 yr lock ups is not uncommen in an emerging market opprtunity fund."

Will not argue with u on your experience, but r u talking abt individual investments or governmental/institutional level? Etisalat has been a major investor in Saudia, Pakistan and looking for opportunities in Turkey and Sudan.

"I will live to be a hundred, so it does matter. My kids will live much longer than that. See life for some people is a boon not a curse or a wait station to virgins in heaven. It is the mentality you live your life with, collectively as a people, 5/6th of humanity is worried less about whether interest is haram and working on taking advantage of the $1.7 trillion ABS opportunity"

U c, its this mentality of yours that exposes your deep seated angst with Muslas. Here iam talking about the validity of economic forecasts beyond 5years and u start to talking about hurs and virgins. Economic theories are but theories, forecasts based on historical and econometric modelling have little value for periods beyond 5years, Iam sure u also subscribe to that view.

Finally, we are dealing with economic/political/social forecasts, I can have a view and project it for the next 5years and be proven right or wrong. Idea is it sud be based upon sound reasoning and data. Same can be said for any argument presented by GS or PD.

Peace dude.....