Where is Musharraf’s Pakistan heading?
By Ahmed Rashid, Lahore
In his latest guest column for BBC News Online, Pakistani journalist Ahmed Rashid ponders the future of democracy in President Musharraf’s Pakistan.
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Just when most Pakistanis thought President Pervez Musharraf would be moving towards strengthening the elected civilian government and empowering parliament and Prime Minister Zafarullah Jamali, he appears to be moving decisively in the opposite direction.
In a series of moves in recent weeks the army has strengthened its grip on the nascent democratic system, creating a new political crisis at a time when the country is still facing the threat of terrorism, sectarianism and Islamic extremism.
A reluctant Mr Jamali was forced to introduce a bill in parliament to set up a 13 man National Security Council, which will ensure the military retains control of all strategic policy making in the country.
The bill was bulldozed through the National Assembly becoming law on 14 April.
With an opposition boycott and no debate, the bill took just three and a half minutes to pass through the senate.
General Musharraf has also thrown into doubt his promise last December to take off his uniform as army chief of staff and become a civilian president by 31 December, 2004.
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After several cabinet ministers close to the army requested him not to step down from the military, General Musharraf threw the whole country into doubt when he told the BBC’s Hard Talk programme that he was still undecided as to whether he would relinquish control of the army.
**Unprecedented punishment
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In a separate development, Javed Hashmi, a leading opposition politician was sentenced by an Islamabad district court on 12 April to 23 years in jail for allegedly trying to incite mutiny in the army.
The unprecedented punishment was a clear signal that the army will not tolerate any criticism from any quarter.
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Meanwhile President Musharraf is sitting in on cabinet meetings alongside Mr Jamali and is chairing other meetings such as those over police reforms, a review of school textbooks and the allocation of resources between the central government and Pakistan’s four provinces.
All of these policy areas are normally the prerogative of the cabinet.
The frustration of many politicians, even those belonging to Mr Jamali’s Pakistan Muslim League, is matched by the growing frustration of Pakistan’s senior bureaucracy.
General Musharraf has refused to remove some 600 retired and serving military officers, who occupy top slots in ministries, state run corporations, the utility services, universities and the media.
It had been widely presumed that like his predecessor - the former military dictator General Zia ul-Haq - once an elected government was in power, military officers would be replaced by the bureaucracy.
**Not involved
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Meanwhile some senior Pakistani diplomats say the foreign ministry has a negligible role in deciding major foreign policy issues.
The foreign ministry was not involved in the recent thawing of relations with India, which was handled by President Musharraf and his close aides.
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Even if General Musharraf does relinquish his military position at the end of the year and appoints a new army chief, he is rapidly institutionalising a dominant and permanent role for the army in the country’s political structure.
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Analysts are divided as to what is happening.
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Do President Musharraf’s moves reflect the fact that he is just plain reluctant to give up the supreme power he has held since the military coup in 1999?
Or does he see threats ahead from within the army and the political opposition?
Or has the army concluded that its long held belief that civilians cannot be trusted to run the government is vindicated by current events?
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A senior army officer says General Musharraf’s recent pro-active role has been a result of the failings of the Jamali cabinet and parliament to take its responsibilities seriously.
He says that the critical issues the country faces are not being addressed because the parties are bickering in parliament.
**Compliant
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However Mr Jamali was the army’s choice for prime minister.
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The rules for the 2002 elections when he came to power were widely perceived by many international observers as being arranged to keep out the large national opposition parties, such as Benazir Bhutto’s Pakistan Peoples Party and the Pakistan Muslim League faction led by Nawaz Sharif.
So far, Mr Jamali has been a compliant prime minister doing the president’s bidding, much to the chagrin of many of his MPs who want an assertion of parliamentary power.
There have been some mutterings of discontent in the army because of General Musharraf’s perceived pro-American line in supporting the US war on terror and the recent military operation in the tribal areas of Waziristan, where there were dozens of army casualties.
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However the army is highly disciplined and motivated. It has also benefited hugely from the perks and privileges it has acquired in the civilian sector during General Musharraf’s tenure.
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Moreover in recent weeks President Musharraf’s government has taken to castigating the Americans on their role in Iraq and for interfering in Pakistan’s internal affairs such as when the US State Department issued a mild rebuke on the jailing of Mr Hashmi.
The criticisms of Washington are not perceived as a strategic shift by the army, but an attempt to win back some level of domestic support where anti-Americanism is growing.
Likewise General Musharraf has blown hot and cold on the Kashmir dispute and relations with India, in a bid to shore up support amongst Islamic parties.
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Finally, although the opposition parties are strident in their criticism of the military, they do not pose a serious threat and the army has played a successful game of divide and rule over them.
It is more likely that General Musharraf is positioning himself and the army to retain control over the political system when he eventually does takes off his uniform.
But this is unlikely to lead to greater political stability, economic growth or the ability to mobilise public support in the war against Islamic extremism.
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