Musharraf rules out accidental N-war with India

Well Howz that for a change from Mushy Mian, looks like a prepared speech & not one of those straight from the heart chat for the nation & cantonment chappies.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cms.dll/html/comp/articleshow?artid=33957533

Musharraf rules out accidental N-war with India

PTI FRIDAY, JANUARY 10, 2003 01:39:13 PM ]

ISLAMABAD: President Pervez Musharraf has played down fears of an accidental Indo-Pak nuclear war, saying Pakistan’s missiles were not nuclear-tipped and were kept geographically apart under the nuclear command he headed with Prime Minister Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali.

“This is not Warsaw Pact vs Nato situation where warheads and missiles were ready for fire with a button in a hand. There is no button in our case. Missiles and warheads are not permitted together. There is a geographical separation between them,” Musharraf said in an interview to Pakistan Observer.

“One has to go up the escalation ladder to come to the stage of pressing of the button,” Musharraf said, adding that no individual has been authorised to press the button.

There is a National Command and Control Authority responsible for development and deployment of all nuclear and strategic weapons, jointly headed by him and Jamali.

On reports that Pakistan’s nuclear assets could fall into wrong hands, Musharraf said there were custodial controls and command arrangements that had been put in place long before India did. “Let me assure you that there is no question of any breach (of the nuclear command),” the President said.

Over prospects of escalation of tension due to Pakistan’s induction of Ghauri missiles into Army and Indian test-firing of Agni missile, Musharraf refused to accept elements of reciprocation and complementarity in the actions.

The two countries are taking actions according to their own requirements. There is no reciprocation involved, he said.

“As a matter of fact it was India which inducted missiles into their Army first. Pakistan has produced a number of missiles and it was our requirement to induct them into service,” he said.

Musharraf also criticised Defence Minister George Fernandes’s statement that Pakistan would be wiped out if India was attacked with nuclear weapons.

“I don’t take such irresponsible statements as a threat to Pakistan,” he said, adding that Pakistan has a deterrence in place to take care of any aggression.

Musharraf said that despite his “countless peace efforts”, India has termed him as “number one enemy”. “It is pretty surprising,” he said.

Whether he would pursue a policy of restraint even if India imposed war on Pakistan, Musharraf said there is no need not be emotional about the war threats. “We need to be more mature and balanced than India. These are all irresponsible statements, which must be checked,” he said.

He condemned recent reports linking Pakistan with the North Korean nuclear programme, calling them “malicious media propaganda.”

“There is a smear campaign unleashed by vested lobbies in the media. We are very clear in our minds that there is nothing wrong what we have done. We have not violated any regime and our guarantees for non-proliferation stands unaltered,” he claimed, adding that he has given “400 per cent” assurance that nothing of the sort reported ever happened between Pakistan and North Korea.

“All that I would like to reiterate that there is no question of proliferation by Pakistan which could have occurred in the past and can occur in future,” he said.

Pakistan is a “responsible nuclear power” and fully understood its international obligations, and strictly adheres to the moratorium it announced on further testing, he said.

The article above is a good response of Mussharraf to his own earlier utterances of an unconventional war threat.

yeah right! musharaf's speech and dollar will buy a cup of coffee in the subway station.

You must appreciate that Mushy Mian has to fight a ding dong battle with own beliefs and what the world wants him to say to remain certified as
temporarily sane. What I wish to highlight is this is his current state, it is a Ding or A Dong, the reader can decide. Let's see how long it lasts...

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Jagjeevan: *
yeah right! musharaf's speech and dollar will buy a cup of coffee in the subway station.
[/QUOTE]

Yet the 'Muslim Burning Hindus' give credence by writing pages after pages in their newspapers, and the Indians on these boards continue to comment on it :)

Good Ol' whining Indians.

Deleted <

Deleted <

Butt Saab, yes the nukes are kept geographically apart for strategic reasons. You know they may not be able to reach Calcutta if fired from lets say from Peshawar right, so they need to be kept at places so all of India is covered, right ;). So we have that cleared now.
On the other hand, yes, Mush controls the nuclear command, that was very obvious i mean, it dont take Abdul Kalam to figure that one out. Also, remember this, Mush is a madman, as you would like to believe right. He may press that nuclear button if driven to the edge, so moral o te story is: Be afraid, be very afraid :D

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by 5Abi: *
Butt Saab, yes the nukes are kept geographically apart for strategic reasons. You know they may not be able to reach Calcutta if fired from lets say from Peshawar right, so they need to be kept at places so all of India is covered, right ;). So we have that cleared now.
On the other hand, yes, Mush controls the nuclear command, that was very obvious i mean, it dont take Abdul Kalam to figure that one out. Also, remember this, Mush is a madman, as you would like to believe right. He may press that nuclear button if driven to the edge, so moral o te story is: Be afraid, be very afraid :D
[/QUOTE]

indians and pakistanis wont do irrational things. even past wars is a picnic when compared to iran-iraq war. they wont fight that kind of brutal
war and just dont have the stomach for that.

Re: Musharraf rules out accidental N-war with India

[QUOTE]
Originally posted by AB: *
"This is not Warsaw Pact vs Nato situation where warheads and missiles were ready for fire with a button in a hand. There is no button in our case. **Missiles and warheads are not permitted together. There is a geographical separation between them
*," Musharraf said in an interview to Pakistan Observer.
[/QUOTE]

My question is, and ofcourse, it will most probably be classified information, what is the minimum lead time our forces will need to launch a reactive nuclear strike? I would hope it is small, to be effective as a deterrent.

Everytime there are a local elections in India, their ruling political party will start singing the war song to rile up their supporters and get some cheap votes. I just don't trust them anymore. What if, for example, the maverick Defence Minister, just decides to bring something new to his supporters by doing a tactical limited nuclear strike in Kashmir and is hoping that by the time Pakistan is able to assemble a fireable nuclear missile, the world pressure will protect India from a like reaction. I would hope that Pakistan is in a position to keep a real fear of prompt reaction alive in the government rooms of the present highly irresponsible Indian government.

MAD FIRMLY IN PLACE IN SOUTH ASIA

India Wrestles with Nuclear Arms Paradox
Mon January 13, 2003 05:20 AM ET

By Sanjeev Miglani
NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Nearly five years after India and Pakistan became nuclear powers, New Delhi is finally coming to terms with what that status means -- the threat of a Pakistani first strike has neutralized its conventional superiority.
Analysts say last year's inconclusive military standoff between the neighbors highlighted what many had feared when the two conducted tit-for-tat nuclear tests in 1998, that India would no longer dare go to war with Pakistan.
"India has become a victim of nuclear blackmail," said C. Raja Mohan, strategic affairs editor at The Hindu newspaper.
So, unable to go back, India is copying the example of the United States and the former Soviet Union at the height of the Cold War, building its nuclear deterrent to the point of mutually assured destruction so that neither side would dare go nuclear.

so what part of this is new? the two countries are safer and both are safer from china also.

but in the fervor to proclaim "i am no longer scared of India" don't neglect your real problems of religious extremism, military, fundamentalization of primary education and serious economic melee

abdali do you think if pakistan threatens with nuke india will give up kahmir?

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by 5Abi: *
Butt Saab, yes the nukes are kept geographically apart for strategic reasons. You know they may not be able to reach Calcutta if fired from lets say from Peshawar right, so they need to be kept at places so all of India is covered, right ;). So we have that cleared now.
On the other hand, yes, Mush controls the nuclear command, that was very obvious i mean, it dont take Abdul Kalam to figure that one out. Also, remember this, Mush is a madman, as you would like to believe right. He may press that nuclear button if driven to the edge, so moral o te story is: Be afraid, be very afraid :D
[/QUOTE]

He Won't and I tell you the Reasons Why, Please Read on:

5ABi Janaab,

Thanks for the warning on the Mr. Ding Dong. Actually George Fernandez, Advani and the Army Chief here already know that, have said it very often in public, so the public here knows too and they assure us that this has been factored in India's strategy. As India has to keep nukes both for Pak and China, and has a no first use policy as well, it flows logically that we must be keeping good stocks and in very safe locations. The fact that Pakistan is a lot smaller , remember " lacking the strategic depth argument" and the fact that India in any eventuality can dehydrate Pakistan by cutting off the Indus waters, in a declared war you know all treaties do end, I do really thing that when push comes to a shove sanity will prevail and Miyan Jannab will not do any thing silly that could end the State of Pakistan founded on Jinhha's idealism. I am sure he would not like to go down in history like that. The be all and end all of his life's mission can't be to press a button & then hope for the best. There are war scenario simulations and unless Pakistan has some very silly assumptions most nations possessing nuclear arms can predict what could happen, and all simulations show both countries will suffer terribly. The only question is who will be worse off ?

Thanks for the warning though, will keep it in mind. Let me know when Miyan Musharraf again propounds another "unconventional strategy" that he does not have to retract very hurriedly.

Re: Re: Musharraf rules out accidental N-war with India

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Faisal: *

My question is, and ofcourse, it will most probably be classified information, what is the minimum lead time our forces will need to launch a reactive nuclear strike? I would hope it is small, to be effective as a deterrent.

Everytime there are a local elections in India, their ruling political party will start singing the war song to rile up their supporters and get some cheap votes. I just don't trust them anymore. What if, for example, the maverick Defence Minister, just decides to bring something new to his supporters by doing a tactical limited nuclear strike in Kashmir and is hoping that by the time Pakistan is able to assemble a fireable nuclear missile, the world pressure will protect India from a like reaction. I would hope that Pakistan is in a position to keep a real fear of prompt reaction alive in the government rooms of the present highly irresponsible Indian government.
[/QUOTE]

Faisal Janaab,

India's policy is very well defined "no first use and no use against a non nuclear state" and hasn't changed from day one, so where is the irresponsibility or the fickleness that you see. Both countries are just minutes away from each other in missile flying time, Pakistan is generally closer. As we have more than 2 dozen states and there will be some elections some where. No one fires nukes to get votes. Election rhetoric is just that rhetoric , be it US, India or Pak. What you really have to worry is if General decides to get fidgety and start belting out rhetoric to stay put as there is little action on the Pak economy front, the people don't support his stooping to US dictates , and the Kashmir situation is a stalemate. Means he is going no where and only the support of the army keeps him in the saddle, if the cantonment chappies get restive, the General gets unsure and could be bit nervous too . What George Fernandez has to say is normally in response to General's statements and all taped, but some are later denied. That's the sequence of these exchanges, please check them out for yourself. And George Fernandez doesn't decide every thing here , it is the cabinet or the Nuclear Command. Yes maverick-ism is definitely dangerous and things like Kargil and attacking the Indian parliament can force the politician's hands here. You should be more careful when planning such things. Some times the calculations can go haywire and have undesirable effects. As I have said in an earlier post, nuclear or war is not the only option India has. As Mushy Mian has said he has un-conventional options, India too controls the source of waters to both Pakistan & Bangladesh . Am glad you raised the points you did.